Taiwan’s Leader Heads to the South Pacific in a Bid to Fend Off China

By Chris Horton

President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, center, during a visit to a Taiwanese military base in January. At the end of her trip to the South Pacific, Ms. Tsai will make a stop in Hawaii on her way back to Taiwan.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, will travel to the South Pacific on Thursday to shore up ties with three island nations that still recognize Taiwan as a country, in an effort to offset China’s expanding influence in the region.
Only 17 countries recognize Taiwan’s government, and among those, Ms. Tsai will be visiting Palau, Nauru and the Marshall Islands.
China has been pouring aid and investment into the Pacific islands, raising the question of whether Beijing could strip Taiwan of more of its few remaining diplomatic allies and shrink the self-ruled island’s international presence.
The Trump administration has sought to push back against China’s reach in the South Pacific and Latin America. 

Australia is also concerned, and last year set aside more money in its budget for Pacific aid.
For the small, developing countries that still recognize Taiwan, the primary reason to consider switching recognition to Beijing from Taipei is the aid and investment that China offers. 

But potential economic benefits may come at a cost, officials and analysts in Taiwan and the United States have warned.
“Growing Chinese economic influence over time may be translated into political and strategic influence,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Commercial investment in a port, for example, could lead to military access, she said. 

“This is especially of concern in Latin America, a region that the U.S. has long considered its backyard.”
United States diplomats have argued to Taiwan’s allies that relying too heavily on China is risky, Ms. Glaser said. 

They have provided data about debt traps China has created elsewhere, she added.
The spokesman for Taiwan’s presidential office, Chang Tun-han, would not confirm if aid or investment packages would be announced during Ms. Tsai’s eight-day trip. 

Ross Feingold, a political analyst in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, said that with elections coming up in Nauru and the Marshall Islands this year, Ms. Tsai was very likely to pledge assistance of some kind.

Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, says China is using its state-owned construction and engineering companies to approach governments in Latin America about switching recognition to China from Taiwan.

Ms. Tsai will make a stop in Hawaii on her way back next Wednesday — a transit that could annoy Beijing. 

The United States shifted to recognizing China’s Communist government in 1979, but still maintains unofficial relations with Taipei.
China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has long sought to reduce the number of countries that recognize it. 

Since Ms. Tsai came to power in 2016, Beijing has poached five of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. 

China has also stepped up pressure on the island democracy by increasing its military activities near Taiwanese waters and airspace.
For Taiwan’s government, the 17 countries that still officially recognize it are of symbolic importance because they support Taiwan’s claim to statehood. 

The most immediate questions hang over two Pacific island nations that Ms. Tsai will not be visiting — Kiribati and the Solomon Islands.
According to Taiwanese news reports, she had initially planned to visit Kiribati on this trip, but the stop was called off because of what officials said were scheduling conflicts. 

Last May, initial plans for a visit by Ms. Tsai to Burkina Faso were similarly shelved shortly before the country severed ties with Taipei.
Rick Hou, the prime minister of the Solomon Islands, has said he will review the relationship with Taiwan if he is re-elected this year. 

China has become a major export destination for the Solomon Islands in recent years, primarily driven by unsustainable logging of the country’s rain forests.
China is aggressively pumping money into the South Pacific via Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, said Karl Eikenberry, director of the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. 

The Chinese initiative is a sweeping plan for infrastructure investment to more closely link China with Asia, Africa and Europe.
“A lot of the money that they’re investing isn’t transparent,” Mr. Eikenberry said at a news conference at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research on Tuesday. 

“It’s corrupting political systems.”
“Do they see strategic utility in having a presence in those Pacific island nations?” he said. 

“The answer is yes.”
Late last month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke at a gathering of South Pacific nations, including the leaders of the Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Palau, praising the countries for their recognition of Taiwan.

Soldiers hoisting the national flag at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has long sought to reduce the number of countries that recognize it.

“We respect and support the decision those of you have made to continue to support Taiwan,” Mr. Pompeo said.
Latin America is also a source of worry for Taiwan.
Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, told journalists last week that China is using its large state-owned construction and engineering companies to approach governments of Taipei’s diplomatic allies in Latin America about switching recognition to Beijing.
“All these countries that are not able to finance the projects themselves need to get loans from China — that’s debt-trap diplomacy,” Mr. Wu said.
Mr. Wu cited as examples Panama and El Salvador, which normalized relations with China in June 2017 and August of last year, respectively.
The Trump administration has stepped into the diplomatic tug-of-war. 

In September, the State Department recalled its top diplomats from the two countries, as well as the Dominican Republic, which dropped Taiwan for China last May.
El Salvador’s ties with China have become a question. 

Nayib Bukele, the new president-elect, said after a speech at the Heritage Foundation in Washington this month that he was reviewing his country’s relations with Beijing, suggesting that reverting to recognition of Taiwan was a possibility.
Before Mr. Bukele was elected last month, his predecessor, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, met with Xi Jinping and secured $150 million in aid from China for 13 projects, the details of which were not made public.
Mr. Bukele said Beijing was selling projects to countries that cannot repay the loans that come attached to them. 

“They go in, they do projects that are not feasible, then they leave the countries with huge loans they cannot repay and they use as a kind of leverage.”
John Bolton, President Trump’s national security adviser, met with Mr. Bukele during his visit and said the United States would work with Mr. Bekele to “counter Chinese predatory practices.”

Australia's plan to challenge China in the South Pacific

By John Lee

Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands at a news conference at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing Thursday.

On the day Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing to signal the beginning of a thaw in the Australia-China bilateral relationship, her boss, Prime Minister Scott Morrison, announced a $2.2 billion infrastructure package as part of the government's "step-up to the Pacific."
Few Australian politicians want to admit that the "step-up" is targeted against another country. 

But it is occurring as Australians are becoming increasingly concerned with the significant Chinese increase of its diplomatic, economic and potentially military presence in the South Pacific, an area that has long been considered by Canberra to be its "backyard."
The motivation for this massive investment is the worst kept secret in Australian foreign policy: Australians know it is about China; the South Pacific Islands know it is about China; even Beijing knows it is about China.
Is Australia over-reacting? 

If not, why now? 

And can an economy less than one-eighth the size of China's really compete with the latter's ambitions in the South Pacific?
For foreigners, the national importance Australia attaches to the Pacific might be difficult to understand. 

In April 2018, Australian media reports claimed China had approached Vanuatu about building up its military presence on the island, and potentially opening a military base. 

Having given the island of around 270,000 people hundreds of millions of dollars of development aid, the reports also indicated that Beijing had been negotiating with Vanuatu about host and even basing rights for People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships.
No subsequent proof of these negotiations was released. 

Even so, the reports generated at least as much popular interest and concern as China's well-known island-building program in the South China Sea and militarization of these artificial islands.
In Australian strategic circles, the notion of a supposed naval base around 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles) from its shoreline did more than raise eyebrows. 

It played into the country's sense of vulnerability.
As reaffirmed in the 2016 Defense White Paper, the highest priority has been given to ensuring that no potentially hostile power is able to approach the Australian continent from Southeast Asia or the South Pacific in its national defense strategy.
Moreover, it has long been unofficial policy between allies that the United States and Japan secure Northeast Asia, the US with Australian support secures Southeast Asia, and Australia takes the primary responsibility for securing the South Pacific. 

Perhaps a naval base hosting PLA vessels in Vanuatu was never in the cards.
But the PLA is seeking to enhance its reach and any permanent Chinese military presence in the South Pacific would allow the its Navy to "break out" into the Western Pacific Ocean. 

That scenario -- or any other base offered to it by a poor and desperate Pacific Island -- would fundamentally undermine Australian strategic policy which has been in place since the end of World War II.
This brings us back to Morrison's multi-billion infrastructure package, which includes funding an infrastructure bank for projects in the region. 

In the previous decade, Chinese funding of Pacific Island countries was part of its strategy of using "checkbook diplomacy" to persuade small island countries to recognize the People's Republic of China rather than Taiwan as the true "China."
At least according to the Australian view, Chinese checkbook diplomacy is now about more than seeking official recognition at Taiwan's expense. 

It is also about winning over these small countries to China's way of thinking, whether it be about basing rights, controlling critical infrastructure in those countries or forcing states to turn a blind eye to controversial Chinese policies such as in the South China Sea.
Beijing achieves this through showering small economies -- which would otherwise find it difficult to attract foreign investment -- with cheap loans. 

As has occurred in Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Laos and Pakistan, the tendency of these small and developing economies to accept far more debt that they can repay allows Beijing to dictate the political and/or strategic terms of any debt-forgiveness or restructuring assistance.
Persistent suspicion that China is seeking to use Hambantota and Gwadar Ports in debt-ridden Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively for military purposes in the future only raises the discomfort levels for Australia when it comes to China in the South Pacific.

Certainly, China does not take half-measures. 

Since 2011, it has offered at least $1.3 billion in donations and concessionary loans to Pacific Island countries. 

This surpasses the $1.2 billion New Zealand has given over the same period. 

China's amount is second only to the $6.6 billion from Australia.
To be sure, Australia remains the preeminent aid and development contributor to the South Pacific and its decades of working with these small island economies means Canberra is well-positioned to remain the "partner of choice."
Even so, Australia has been largely reactive and playing defense to China offense. 

For example, Canberra signed an agreement with the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea in July to pay for undersea cables between the three countries in a last-minute bid to prevent Chinese firm Huawei from receiving the contract. 

In September, Canberra joined with the US in a last ditch attempt to thwart Huawei winning approval to build the domestic Internet cable network in Papua New Guinea.
These, and other, efforts have been reactive to Chinese overtures.
The point is not to outbid China in terms of short-term generosity or allow Pacific Island nations to play Australia off against China to maximize both countries' largesse. 

Morrison intends to ensure that these small economies will choose an Australian backed funding source which abides by World Bank and other international commercial standards but where access is fast-tracked and not held up by unnecessary regulations (typical of World Bank and Asian Development Bank Loans), and which impose repayment terms that are sustainable and will not endanger the solvency of these economies.
Australia knows it cannot keep China out of the South Pacific. 

But it can warn these developing economies about the price of severe indebtedness to China and offer them a ready alternative when it comes to the funding of critical infrastructure which would have domestic and/or regional security implications.
Most of all, recent Australian policy is belated recognition it needs to compete in a region which has remain benign and free from potentially hostile external influence for over seven decades.

How an Australian spy stopped China from growing internet influence South Pacific

As China's plan to spread itself across the South Pacific grew, one Australian spy took matters into his own hands.
By Matt Young

Australia to build comms cable for Solomons and PNG: Bishop

AN AUSTRALIAN spy is being hailed after intervening in a major deal that would have seen a surge in China’s influence in the South Pacific.

Today Australia and its neighbour, the Solomon Islands, will sign off on the first stage of a 4000km high-speed undersea internet cable in a deal that has swiped China off the map.
The multimillion-dollar deal will provide a high speed internet link between Australia and the fifth-largest Oceanian country by population which struggles with unreliable and ineffective internet services. 

It will also connect Papua New Guinea to Australia.
SBS described it as a “significant leap forward for communications” for the impoverished country, which currently relies on satellite networks.
The Solomon Islands had originally awarded the contract to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in 2016 but it was “diplomatic pressure and rare intervention” from a top Australian spy that saw the deal take a change of course, according to the ABC.
“Australian intelligence agencies never wanted the Solomon Islands to allow Chinese company Huawei to build the link, and were keen to prevent it happening,” journalist Matthew Doran reported.
Huawei has become the world’s third largest smartphone maker in recent years but the company faces headwinds in its expansion plans due to its close links with the Chinese communist party.
Australia halved the cost of the project for the island nation and refused to allow a “landing point” for the cable on Australian territory if China took control.

Nick Warner, director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service at the launch of the Foreign Policy White paper at DFAT in Canberra. 

A map of submarine cable systems and their landing stations around Australia. 

Julie Bishop this morning defended the decision, saying Australia’s neighbours needed other options than simply China.
“What we have offered the Solomon Islands, and they have accepted, is an alternative to the offer, and ours is cheaper. It’s likely to be faster results for them, and technically superior. And also more resilient,” she said.
“We put up an alternative, and that’s what I believe Australia should continue to do. We are the largest aid donor in the Pacific.
“We are a longstanding partner of Solomon Islands, and I want to ensure that countries in the Pacific have alternatives, that they don’t only have one option and no others, and so in this case we are in a position to be able to offer a more attractive deal for Solomon Islands and PNG, and they accepted it.”

Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm welcomes the Prime Minister of #SolomonIslands Rick Houenipwela and Madam Rachel Houenipwela to @Aust_Parliament with a Ceremonial Welcome today, including a 19 gun salute and an inspection of Australia's Federation Guard. pic.twitter.com/HJh9mM5n80— PM&C (@pmc_gov_au) June 13, 2018

Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, warned in November last year that if Beijing had its way, it would result in some “really significant national security issues for Australia.
“Having a Chinese state-owned enterprise connecting up to a piece of critical domestic infrastructure is pretty unpalatable for the Australian Government.”
The contract change was only after Nick Warner, the head of Australia’s foreign spy agency, ASIS, intervened in July 2017. 

He warned the Solomon Island’s former Prime Minister that allowing the Chinese such measures would create a cybersecurity risk for Australia and its allies by giving the Chinese access to the “back end” of the Australian network.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte discusses matters with Australian Secret Intelligence Service Director General Nicolas Peter 'Nick' Warner who paid a courtesy call on the President at the Malaca — an Palace on August 22, 2017.

Today Solomon Islands’ current Prime Minister, Rick Houenipwela, and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will cement the deal in Canberra.
“We have had some concerns raised with us by Australia, and I guess that was the trigger for us to change from Huawei to now the arrangements we are now working with Australia on,” Mr Houenipwela told Sky News in New Zealand last week.
Taxpayers will be slugged for about two-thirds of the price, the government revealed in the 2018 Budget. 

The exact price of the deal, though, is unknown, despite reports it could cost more than $100 million from the aid budget.
Last month, the Pentagon ordered U.S. military bases worldwide to ban mobile phones and other telecommunications equipment made by the Chinese company Huawei after senior U.S. intelligence officials warned the phones could be used to spy on Americans and U.S. service members.
Although there has been steadfast denials from Huawei, that the Chinese tech company eavesdrops on behalf of Beijing, for a number of years the US has prohibited Huawei from bidding for government contracts out of fears for national security
Both Labor and Liberal government blocked Huawei from tendering for the National Broadband Network in 2012 and 2013.

Alex Beech

✔@AlexHBeech

Australia's signing a deal with the Solomon Islands re a high-speed internet cable. But it was originally set to be built by Huawei, so will this upset #China?-- "It's a competitive world. We put forward an alternative. The Solomon Islands are accepting it" -Julie Bishop #auspol

12:28 AM - Jun 13, 2018

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Rogue Nation

France, Australia call on China to observe rules
By Trevor Marshallsea 

French President Emmanuel Macron, right, presents the Legion d’Honneur award to Australian war veteran William Mackay in Sydney, Wednesday, May 2, 2018. Macron is on a three-day visit to Australia. 

SYDNEY — French President Emmanuel Macron and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Wednesday issued a reminder to China to respect a rules-based order in the South Pacific amid concerns about Beijing’s growing influence in the region.
Macron’s comments came during a three-day visit to Australia, during which the two nations signed a range of agreements, including a pact to strengthen defense ties.
The two leaders were also expected to discuss China’s growing influence in the South Pacific. Australia has become concerned about increasing Chinese investment in infrastructure projects in the area, especially reports — denied by Beijing — that it wants establish a permanent military base in Vanuatu. 

This follows China’s contentious claiming of islands in recent years in the South China Sea.
Macron was scheduled to depart on Thursday for New Caledonia, a French-controlled island near Vanuatu, which will hold a referendum in November on breaking away from France’s protection and becoming a republic.
While Macron and Turnbull did not specifically confirm they discussed China during their Sydney meetings. 

But when asked about Beijing’s South Pacific push at a joint news conference, the two leaders were eager to stress the need for lawful development in the area.
“China’s rise is very good news for everybody. It’s good for China itself, its middle classes, and it’s good for global growth, and regional growth,” Macron said. 

“What’s important is to preserve a rules-based development in the region, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, and to preserve the necessary balances in the region.”
“And it’s important not to have any hegemony in the region,” he said.
Turnbull said the economic rise of China was made possible “by a ruled-based order in our region”.
“We welcome further Chinese investment in our region. We welcome the benefits of the growth of China. But of course we are committed to the maintenance of the rules-based international order, to good governance, strong standards, that will enable us all to continue this remarkable arc of prosperity that has been enabled by that rule of law,” Turnbull said.
Turnbull cited an oft-used quote from former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew in pushing for mutual respect among nations in Asia, saying “big fish cannot eat little fish, and little fish cannot eat shrimps.” 

Macron added: “And especially New Caledonian shrimps.”
France is the only European nation with direct territorial links to Pacific region countries, which play a role in its defense building. 

It has more than 1.5 million citizens and 8,000 military personnel spread across several territories in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Macron said he was keen for France to build a broader strategic relationship with Australia. 

Already, a French company Naval Group is building Australia’s new fleet of 12 submarines at a facility in Adelaide, under a deal worth $36.3 billion.
Also as part of Macron’s visit, France and Australia signed pacts to strengthen military ties, both through cooperation in maritime activities and the establishment of an annual Franco-Australian defense industry symposium.
Macron also expressed a desire for France to be “at the heart” of the Indo-Pacific region.
“I believe we have one shared goal, that is to turn our two countries to place them at the heart of a new axis, an Indo-Pacific axis,” Macron said.
Asked about growing tensions about Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities, Macron said that regardless of Trump’s May 12 decision a new agreement should be negotiated with Teheran.
Macron, who told the United Nations last September that the current deal was not sufficient, said it should be broadened to address three new main areas — Iran’s nuclear activity after the current deal expires in 2025; improvements in the monitoring and controlling of Iran’s domestic nuclear activity, and to have better containment of Iranian activity in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Macron, who visited Washington last week, said Trump responded “positively” to his recent suggestion for a new agreement while he had also “exchanged about that” in the past few days with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Macron said whatever Trump’s coming decision, a broader deal was needed because “nobody wants a war in the region and nobody wants an escalation in terms of tension in the region.”
With trade talks also a key part of the visit, Macron said France would support formal talks on a free trade deal between Australia and the European Union after it found solutions to concerns it had on agriculture.
The countries also signed agreements to counter cyberwarfare and on committing to strategies addressing climate change, including working to make coral reefs in the Pacific more resilient.
Macron also used a ceremony commemorating Australia’s wartime cooperation with France to highlight a global worldview as a counter to nationalism.
A week after criticizing Trump’s “America first” policies on his trip to Washington, and hours after a May Day gathering of European anti-immigration populist leaders and violent right-wing protests in his home country, Macron said the Australia’s wartime sacrifice in Europe should serve as “a powerful message at a time when nationalism is looming, entrenched behind its borders and its hostility to the rest of the world.”
“No great nation has ever been built by turning its back on the world,” he said.

Chinese military outpost in Vanuatu a ‘massive nightmare’ for Australia, experts warn

China’s latest move in our region confirms the biggest fear Australian strategic thinkers have held since 1901

By Gavin Fernando

DEFENCE experts have warned that China’s latest flagged move in the South Pacific presents a “massive nightmare” for Australia.
Fears have mounted following reports Beijing is seeking to establish a permanent military base in Vanuatu, less than 2000km from the Australian border.
Initial talks have already begun with Vanuatu, which could see Beijing establishing a major military presence and upsetting the strategic balance of the region, Fairfax Media reported today.
Experts warn this will essentially see a Chinese military outpost planted directly in Australia’s backyard.
Adam Lockyer, a senior lecturer in Security Studies at Macquarie University, stressed that this is a huge deal for us.
“This is a big nightmare for Australia,” he told news.com.au. 

“A Chinese base here has been the primary fear of Australian strategic thinkers since Federation.”
So what’s China playing at?
Dr Lockyer said Australia had always been relatively safe as long as a great power — like China — didn’t have a base within proximity.
Since the end of World War II, we’ve fought to ensure no other power could interfere with us from the South Pacific region.
He explained that there’s a strategic military purpose to building a nearby base, in that you don’t need to defeat an entire army; you only need to defeat a small faction of the army that can be projected in one wave.
“As soon as you have that, Australia is vulnerable to military attacks and skyrockets,” he warned. 

“Canberra will be panicking if these reports are true. This is really going to shake the cage.”

Julie Bishop has downplayed the fears, saying she is confident of our relationship with Vanuatu.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop downplayed fears this morning, saying she was confident of Australia’s strong relationship with the island nation 1750km east of Northern Australia.
She also noted that China has only established one military base — in Djibouti in northern Africa.
“I’m not aware of a military offer being made by China to Vanuatu,” she told ABC radio today.
She also noted that Vanuatu’s high commissioner in Canberra, Kalfau Kaloris, said his country’s foreign ministry was “not aware” of China’s plan to build a permanent presence on the island.
“We have very good relationships with Vanuatu and I remain confident that Australia is Vanuatu’s strategic partner of choice.”

China is building military bases on the contested Spratly Islands.

Dr Lockyer also stressed this isn’t necessarily an active attack against Australia, and more a move to combat American influence in the region.
But it does send a clear message to us.
He suggested this may serve as a retaliation to Australia’s more aggressive stance on the rising superpower in recent times.
Chinese state media has attacked Mr Turnbull on several occasions for “standing up” against foreign interference in Australian politics, and for expressing concerns over China’s territorial aims in the South China Sea.
Just last month, Beijing accused Australia of becoming “an anti-China pioneer” over the past two years, accusing Mr Turnbull of “playing the China card”.
“The country’s unhealthy political environment prompts its politicians to play the China card,” the state-run Global Times editorial said. 

“Apparently, the above cannot be altered in the short run, and will exert long-term negative effects on Sino-Australian ties.”
According to Dr Lockyer, China’s response could be a reaction to that.
“Everyone knows this Melanesian region is vital to Australia. They (China) knew this would stir us up and make us feel very vulnerable, and if we felt vulnerable we might be less assertive,” he said.
“China’s media has been threatening us for a while now, and this is really hitting us where it hurts. It’s saying, ‘We know where you’re vulnerable, we know what you value, and we can hurt you there.’”
He also said China could be “holding up Australia as an example of a state that’s been naughty” to send a message to other countries in the region.
So what’s next?
It’s yet to be seen whether China will or plans to establish other bases in the region.
Dr Lockyer said Beijing acts opportunistically, rather than actively pursuing new military bases on a day-to-day basis.
“They’re setting up a network of close relationships around the world. If a door opens, then sure, they’ll take it,” he said.
But while Canberra does have some diplomatic and economic leverage, it may not be enough to contain Beijing if these “opportunities” continue to present themselves.