Affichage des articles dont le libellé est North Natuna Sea. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est North Natuna Sea. Afficher tous les articles

vendredi 1 mars 2019

Chinese Aggressions

South China Sea: Indonesia And Vietnam Prove Duterte Wrong
By Panos Mourdoukoutas

Indonesia joined Vietnam recently to challenge Duterte’s doctrine in the South China Sea.
That’s the notion that any Asian-Pacific country that dares to tame Beijing’s ambitions to control the entire South China Sea will face war with China.
This week, Indonesia drew a “red line” in the South China Sea establishing fishing rights in areas where China claims “overlapping” rights, according to BenarNews.
Indonesia’s move comes roughly two years after the country renamed its maritime region in the southwest part of the South China Sea as the “North Natuna Sea,” asserting sovereignty in the area.
Meanwhile, Vietnam has been taken its own steps to tame Beijing’s ambitions to control the South China Sea. 
Last month, Hanoi pushed for a pact to outlaw many of China’s ongoing activities in the South China Sea. 
Like the building of artificial islands, blockades and offensive weaponry such as missile deployments; and the Air Defense Identification Zone—a conduct code China initiated back in 2013.
Chinese, Indonesian, and Philippines Shares
These activities are part of Beijing’s efforts to assert complete dominance in the South China Sea and push the US out.
“Although China does not want to usurp the United States’ position as the leader of the global order, its actual aim is nearly as consequential,” says Oriana Skylar Mastro in “The Stealth Superpower: How China Hid Its Global Ambitions,”published in the January/February issue of Foreign Affairs. “In the Indo-Pacific region, China wants complete dominance.; it wants to force the United States out and become the region’s unchallenged political, economic, and military hegemon.”
That’s why America has stepped up patrols in disputed South China Sea waters, asserting its willingness to keep the waterway an open sea to all commercial and military vessels.
And that has provided some sort of insurance for Indonesia and Vietnam against an unmeasured response from China.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s and Vietnam’s moves have proved Duterte wrong: standing up to China doesn’t lead to war.
So far, financial markets in the region have been discounting these developments as “noise,” rather than something more serious, focusing instead on the trade war between Beijing and Washington. 
But they could come back to haunt markets once the trade war is settled.
A growing conflict between China on the one side and America on the other over who will write the navigation rules for the South China Sea raises geopolitical risks for the global economy. 
And it adds to investor anxieties over the fate of international trade and the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region.

jeudi 14 septembre 2017

China Threat

Indonesia & China: The Sea Between
By Philip Bowring
Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Xi Jinping, Yanqi Lake, China, May 15, 2017.

Indonesia has long been cautious in confronting China’s claims in the South China Sea, so its announcement on July 14 that it was renaming a part of the area the “North Natuna Sea” may have come to many as surprise. 
The new name encompasses a region north of the Natuna islands that partly falls within the infamous “nine dash line,” by which China claims the sea stretching fifteen hundred miles from its mainland coast almost to the shores of Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
China immediately demanded a retraction—which it will not get.
The naming was a reminder of how seriously Indonesia treats its position as the seat of ancient trading empires and location of some of the world’s strategically most important straits—Melaka, Sunda, Lombok, and Makassar. 
Since he was elected in 2014, President Joko Widodo has made maritime issues central to Indonesia’s foreign policy, building up its navy, arresting dozens of foreign ships caught fishing illegally, and taking a quiet but firm stand on sea rights. 
Although not a populist vote-winner, the policy is generally approved, particularly by the military, which since the war of independence against the Dutch has seen itself as the guardian of the integrity of the nation and its internationally recognized status.
The naming also came shortly before the sixtieth anniversary of a pronouncement that has had a profound impact on the whole world. 
On December 13, 1957, the Indonesian government unilaterally declared that it was an “archipelagic state,” claiming sovereignty over all the waters within straight baselines between its thousands of far-flung islands. 
Though the young republic was in no position to enforce it, this was a revolutionary move: at the time, Western powers asserted that territorial seas were limited to three miles, and that otherwise foreign ships, military included, had complete freedom of movement.
Twenty-five years of international negotiation followed, culminating in the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea, defining rights and obligations relating to sea boundaries and resources, and rights of “innocent passage”—not endangering the security of the coastal state—through straits and internal and territorial seas. 
It accepted the archipelagic state principle, and made twelve-mile territorial seas and two-hundred-mile “exclusive economic zones,” or EEZs—which give exclusive rights for fishing and exploitation of seabed resources—the global norm. (The United States in practice accepts the Convention, as clarified by a subsequent 1994 agreement, but has never ratified it.)
Although Indonesia has no island disputes with China, its stance on the Natuna waters allies it with the other littoral nations in facing up to China (though the Philippines under Duterte currently appears to prefer Chinese money to sovereignty over its seas). 
Last year, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague applied the Convention to rule decisively for the Philippines in its claim against Chinese actions within its EEZ, including driving out Philippine fishing boats, and building structures on rocks and shoals that did not have the status of islands. 
In doing so, the court rejected China’s claims to the whole sea and by implication the waters of North Natuna.

Do not imagine that the term “South China Sea” ever implied Chinese ownership. 
It is a Western construction that dates to about 1900. 
Previously, European maps referred to it as the China Sea, and before that as part of the Indian Sea. When the Portuguese arrived there in the early sixteenth century they called it the Cham Sea, after the maritime kingdom of coastal Vietnam. 
Other names at various times include Luzon Sea and (by early Arab traders) the Clove Sea. 
To China it has long been the South Sea and to Vietnamese the East Sea. 
The Philippines now refers to it as the West Philippine Sea.
“Malay seas” is another term that has been applied to it and its immediate neighbors, the Java, Sulu, and Banda seas. 
The South China Sea itself is predominantly a Malay sea, as defined by the culture and language group of the majority of people living along its shores. 
Until European imperialism from the sixteenth century onward gradually snuffed out these trade-based kingdoms and sultanates, they were the region’s principal traders.
Earlier, the Sumatra-based Srivijaya kingdom held similar sway through its control of the Melaka straits and hence all seaborne trade between China and the Spice Islands with India, Arabia, and beyond. 
It was during this era that ships from the archipelago brought the first colonists to Madagascar, leaving a language and genetic imprint that remains to this day. 
They also traded across the Indian ocean to Africa and Yemen.
The first Romans known to have visited China did so by sea via India and the Malay peninsula. 
Trade spread Buddhism to Sumatra and Java, where by the fifth century it was flourishing to such an extent that Srivijaya attracted Chinese monks, who then traveled on to Sri Lanka and India. 
Chinese traders occasionally visited countries to the south, but did so on “barbarian” ships based out of Champa, Funan (in the Mekong delta), Java, Borneo, or Sumatra. 
Some of these ships were fifty meters long and capable of carrying five hundred people, according to contemporary Chinese sources.
Trade with China boomed during the seventh through tenth-century Tang dynasty, an era of peace and progress. 
As Chinese were barred from going overseas, trade brought large numbers of Indian, Malay, Persian, and Arab merchants to settle in the southern Chinese ports Guangzhou and Quanzhou, and prosperity to the ports of Sumatra, Java, and the Malay peninsula.
It was not until the Southern Song era, when northern China was under Central Asian rule, that Chinese began to participate directly in the trade, and even then it was often not in their own ships. The Yuan dynasty that followed further relaxed restrictions on Chinese participation in trade, but also invaded Java when the King of Singasari in east Java refused to pay tribute to the emperor Kublai Khan
The invasion was a disaster. 
What Kublai wanted was political submission that went beyond the so-called “tribute” missions sent by trading states to the imperial court. 
Contrary to what is often assumed, these missions mostly had no political implications. 
They were most frequent at a time when port rivalries were most intense. 
Tribute was a payment to receive preference for trading in China, and it also applied in reverse: Chinese traders visiting the Philippines had to bring gifts for local chiefs in order to be allowed to trade.
Kublai’s imperial ambitions were partly taken up by the Ming dynasty with the despatch between 1405 and 1433 of seven huge fleets under Muslim eunuch Zheng He to demonstrate Chinese power throughout the southern and western seas, demanding local rulers acknowledge the supremacy of the emperor. 
But the voyages had scant strategic value and were too costly to be sustained. 
Nor did they contribute much to the development of China’s trade. 
By then, small settlements of Chinese traders could be found in Java and Sumatra ports, some as a result of purges of Muslims in Quanzhou, but they were still only minor players when, a mere eighty years after the last Zheng He voyage, the Portuguese arrived to conquer Melaka, the Malay Muslim city which was the leading entrepôt of the region.
This was to be the start of more than four centuries of European influence, with Spain, the Netherlands, Britain, and the US following the Portuguese and in time converting commercial presence in the region into economic dominance and political control. 
The Dutch in Batavia (Jakarta) took trade way from Java’s other ports. 
Makassar, a beacon of free trade and religious tolerance, was also subdued by the Dutch. 
After the British took control of Singapore in 1824 and opened it to all comers, the ports of Sumatra and the peninsula—Aceh, Palembang, etc.—slowly faded until almost obliterated.
The role of overseas Chinese in regional trade grew steadily as colonial cities such as Batavia, Manila, and then Singapore offered opportunities for engagement in the local economy as well as regional trade. 
Then the mining and plantation booms of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries attracted hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrants, who formed their own trading networks around the region. 
Meanwhile, the biggest businesses of all were Western-owned. 
Thus by the time of independence after 1945, the once trade-based states of the region saw their commerce in alien hands.
None of this was the doing of China itself. 
It was the work of enterprising Chinese leaving an overcrowded country. 
At no point since Zheng He had a Chinese government been actively involved in the seas that it now claims on the basis of history. 
Any actions it takes now to press those claims against its neighbors have the potential to arouse communal feeling, never far below the surface, against commercially dominant ethnic Chinese communities in those countries. 
The naming of North Natuna is a sign that the world’s largest archipelagic state will stand firm, encouraging the Philippines and Malaysia to do likewise, until China’s bout of arrogance abates and it can treat its 400 million maritime neighbors as equals, acknowledging their seafaring and trading history.

dimanche 10 septembre 2017

Chinese Aggressions


Indonesia, Long on Sidelines, Starts to Confront China’s Territorial Claims
By JOE COCHRANE

Security ship crew members of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries prepare for a patrol along Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the Natuna Islands. 

JAKARTA, Indonesia — When Indonesia recently — and quite publicly — renamed the northernmost waters of its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea despite China’s claims to the area, Beijing quickly dismissed the move as “meaningless.”
It is proving to be anything but.
Indonesia’s increasingly aggressive posture in the region — including a military buildup in its nearby Natuna Islands and the planned deployment of naval warships — comes as other nations are being more accommodating to China’s broad territorial claims in the South China Sea.
The two countries had three maritime skirmishes in 2016 involving warning shots, including one in which Indonesian warships seized a Chinese fishing boat and its crew.
Indonesia is challenging China, one of its biggest investors and trading partners, as it seeks to assert control over a waterway that has abundant resources, particularly oil and natural gas reserves and fish stocks.
The pushback from Indonesia takes direct aim at Beijing’s claims within the so-called “nine-dash line,” which on Chinese maps delineates the vast area that China claims in the South China Sea. 
It also adds a new player to the volatile situation, in which the United States Navy has been challenging China’s claims with naval maneuvers through waters claimed by Beijing.

The coastline at Ranai, the administrative center of the Natuna islands. 

Indonesia “is already a party to the disputes — and the sooner it acknowledges this reality the better,” said Ian J. Storey, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, where he researches South China Sea issues.
The dispute largely centers on the Natuna Sea, a resource-rich waterway north of Indonesia that also lies close to Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.
Before naming part of the contested waterway the North Natuna Sea “to make it sound more Indonesian,” Mr. Storey said, Indonesia last year began beefing up its military presence in the Natunas. 
That included expanding its naval port on the main island to handle bigger ships and lengthening the runway at its air force base there to accommodate larger aircraft.
For decades, Indonesia’s official policy has been that it is not a party to any territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, unlike its regional neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. 
Last year, however, Indonesia and China had the three maritime skirmishes within Indonesia’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone off its Natuna Islands, which lie northwest of Borneo.
After the third skirmish, in June 2016, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it claimed for the first time that its controversial nine-dash line included “traditional fishing grounds” within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
The administration of Indonesian President Joko Widodo, whose top administrative priorities since taking office in October 2014 include transforming his country into a maritime power, has ordered the authorities to blow up hundreds of foreign fishing vessels seized while illegally fishing in Indonesian waters.
Mr. Joko, during a visit to Japan in 2015, said in a newspaper interview that China’s nine-dash line had no basis in international law. 
He also chaired a cabinet meeting on a warship off the Natunas just days after last year’s third naval skirmish — a move analysts viewed as a show of resolve to Beijing.
On July 14, Indonesia’s Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries held a conspicuously high-profile news conference to release its first national territorial map since 2005, including the unveiling of the newly named North Natuna Sea. 
The new map also included new maritime boundaries with Singapore and the Philippines, with which Indonesia had concluded agreements in 2015.
Arif Havas Oegroseno, a deputy minister at Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs, told journalists that the new Indonesian map offered “clarity on natural resources exploration areas.”
That same day, Indonesia’s Armed Forces and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources signed a memorandum for warships to provide security for the highly profitable fishing grounds and offshore oil and gas production and exploration activities within the country’s exclusive economic zone near the Natunas.

Susi Pudjiastuti, Indonesia’s minister of maritime affairs and fisheries, attending an Independence Day ceremony in Natuna on Aug. 17.

Gen. Gatot Nurmantyo, the commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces, said at the time that offshore energy exploration and production activities “have often been disturbed by foreign-flagged vessels” — which analysts took as a reference to China.
Although several countries take issue with China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, few do so publicly, and the Trump administration has recently sent mixed signals about how willing it is to challenge China on its claims. 
That has made the Indonesian pushback more intriguing.
Frega Ferdinand Wenas Inkiriwang, a lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University, said Indonesia’s public naming of the North Natuna Sea “means that Indonesia indirectly becomes a claimant state in the area, perhaps due to territorial integrity issues.
“It’s in the vicinity of the Natunas,” he said, “and the Natunas contain natural resources which are inherited and will be beneficial for Indonesia’s development.”
The Indonesian Navy would be no match for the Chinese Navy in a fight, although the first of last year’s clashes involved only a Chinese Coast Guard ship and an Indonesian maritime ministry patrol boat. 
It is unlikely that the two countries’ navies would clash within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone, according to analysts.

A fisherman repairing his boat at a fishing village in Teluk Buton in the Natuna Islands. 

Members of the 10-state Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, have repeatedly expressed concern about China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea, including its naval standoffs and land reclamation projects in disputed areas, and the stationing of military personnel and surface-to-air missiles in the Paracel Islands — which are controlled by China but are also claimed by Vietnam.
Indonesia, the grouping’s largest member and de facto leader, had in the past remained on the sidelines of the various South China Sea disputes and offered to help mediate between Asean claimant states and Beijing.
Given that China is among Indonesia’s biggest investors and trade partners, analysts say Jakarta will go only so far in challenging China’s territorial claims, at least publicly. 
But its more aggressive military posture and other moves regarding the Natunas are nonetheless sending signals to China.
“It doesn’t make Indonesia a claimant state,” said Aaron Connelly, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia, who follows the South China Sea disputes. “They’ve never accepted the legitimacy of the nine-dash line, which is why they say there’s no overlap” with its exclusive economic zone.
“China says it has ‘traditional fishing rights,’ but Indonesia is doing things in a legalistic way right now,” Mr. Connolly said. 
“This is a more effective way of challenging it.”
Evan A. Laksmana, a senior researcher on security affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, agreed that the naming of the North Natuna Sea was not specifically done to trigger a dispute with China.
“But the international legal basis underpinning Indonesia’s new map is clear,” he said.
“We do not recognize China’s claims in the Natuna waters — we don’t feel like we should negotiate our map with Beijing or ask their consent,” Mr. Laksmana said.

lundi 4 septembre 2017

Chinese Aggressions

Indonesia And America Draw New 'Red Lines' In South China Sea
By Panos Mourdoukoutas

Indonesia and America drew their own ‘red lines’ for Beijing in the South China Sea last week.
On Friday, Indonesia decided to rename its maritime region in the southwest part of the South China Sea as the “North Natuna Sea,” asserting its own sovereignty in the area.
Meanwhile, America announced that it will step up patrols in disputed South China Sea waters, asserting its willingness to keep the waterway an open sea to all commercial and military vessels.
Indonesia’s and America’s moves come a year after Philippines and its close ally, the U.S., won an international arbitration ruling that China has no historic title over the waters of the South China Sea.
But China continues to think otherwise. 
It considers the body of water its own sea. 
All of it, including the artificial islands it has been building in disputed waters, in defiance of international tribunal rulings.
Worse, Beijing has been using softcore and hardcore diplomacy to intimidate anyone who dares to challenge its position. 
Like threatening Philippines with war should it try to enforce the international ruling. 
Or like telling Vietnam and India to stop searching for oil in the region, or else it will attack the oil and gas bases.
It has also told America’s close Asian ally, Japan, to stay away from its “own” South China Sea.
So far, financial markets in the region have been discounting these developments as “noise,” rather than something more serious, focusing instead on the economic fundamentals of each country. 
Except the Bitcoin market, which has emerged as the new hedge against global uncertainties.
Still, investors should keep a close eye on the rising tensions in the region, especially as North Korea escalates the testing of new missiles.