Colleges Should All Stand Up to China

American universities need to show Beijing—again and again—that they reserve the right to unfettered debate.
By Rory Truex
About five times a year, the U.S. military conducts freedom-of-navigation operations, or FONOPs, in the South China Sea to challenge China’s territorial claims in the area.
American Navy vessels traverse through waters claimed by the Chinese government.
This is how the U.S. government registers its view that those waters are international territory, and that China’s assertion of sovereignty over them is inconsistent with international law.
Americans are witnessing a similar encroachment on territory equally central to our national interest: our own social and political discourse. 
Through a combination of market coercion and intimidation, the Chinese Communist Party is trying to constrain how people in the United States and other Western democracies talk about China.

Freedom-of-speech operations (FOSOPs) 
This encroachment needs a measured response—what we might call freedom-of-speech operations, or FOSOPs for short. 
American universities can take the lead.
They should routinely hold events on the fate of Taiwan, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, the repression of Uighur Muslims in East Turkestan, and other topics known to be sensitive to the Chinese government.
These events can be organized by students, faculty, or research centers.
They need not originate from a university’s administration.
If anything, the message that FOSOPs send—everything in the United States is subject to open debate, especially on college campuses—is even stronger if the pressure comes from the grass roots.
Last month’s NBA-China spat crystallized the basic problem.
After the Houston Rockets executive Daryl Morey tweeted in support of the Hong Kong protesters, Rockets games and gear were effectively banned in China, costing the team an estimated $10 million to $25 million.
It has become common for the Chinese government to force Western firms and institutions to toe the party line.
Gap, Cambridge University Press, the three largest U.S. airlines, Marriott, and Mercedes-Benz have all had China access threatened over freedom-of-speech issues. 
This list will continue to grow.
Recently, the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV canceled the showing of an Arsenal soccer game because the club’s star, Mesut Özil, had criticized the ongoing crackdown in East Turkestan.
The Chinese government regularly uses coercive tactics to affect discourse on American campuses, including putting pressure on universities that invite politically sensitive speakers.
This is precisely what happened at the University of California at San Diego, which hosted the Dalai Lama as a commencement speaker in 2017.
The Chinese government, which considers the Tibetan religious leader a threat, responded by barring Chinese scholars from visiting UCSD using government funding.
There is also disturbing evidence that the Chinese government is mobilizing overseas Chinese students to protest or disrupt events, primarily through campus chapters of the Chinese Students and Scholars Association. 
These groups exist at more than 150 universities and receive financial support from the Chinese embassy in the United States. 
As Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reported last year in Foreign Policy, the embassy can exert influence over the chapters’ leadership and activities.
The goal of freedom-of-speech operations is safety in numbers.
Other universities remained largely mum after the Chinese government moved to punish UCSD, effectively inviting Beijing to deploy similar tactics against other schools in the future. 
But imagine if instead there had been an outpouring of events on Tibet or invitations for the Dalai Lama. 
Coordination is key.
An affront to one American university should be taken as an affront to all.
At Princeton, where I teach, we held three FOSOPs in recent weeks: the first on East Turkestan, sponsored by the James Madison Program in American Ideals and Institutions; the second on Hong Kong, sponsored by a student group that promotes U.S.-China relations; and a third on East Turkestan, also sponsored by students. 
These events were not labeled as FOSOPs, of course; I, not the organizers, am applying the term.
The panels occurred independently, organically, and with no real interference or involvement from university administration, other than to ensure the safety and security of our students.
I played a small role in the Hong Kong event, at which I moderated a panel that featured three Hong Kong citizens discussing the ongoing protest movement.
Our China talks usually get about 30 attendees, most of whom are retirees who live nearby.
The Hong Kong panel last month was the biggest China-related event I have attended on our campus.
Our room was at maximum capacity, as was the overflow room we created for the simulcast.
It was clear that mainland-Chinese students and Hong Kong students—two groups whose views on the protests generally diverge—had both mobilized in some way or another.
The event was emotionally charged at the outset.
One Chinese student, apparently sympathetic to the Chinese government’s position, flipped the panel the middle finger after a panelist made a comment about police brutality against Hong Kong protesters.
Several of the audience members from mainland China pressed the panelists on some of the basic realities of the events on the ground.
One student asked if there was actually any evidence of police brutality.
It felt like Chinese students had come to the event just to push the Communist Party line. 
But it was healthy and helpful to have pro-Beijing views expressed and debated publicly, and juxtaposed with the lived experiences of the Hong Kong protesters.
As the panelist Wilfred Chan noted, it is especially important right now to have dialogue between the Hong Kongers and mainland-Chinese communists.
Western university campuses are among the only spaces where this can occur.
Firms, local governments, civic associations, and individuals can create their own freedom-of-speech operations.
Imagine if every NBA player signed a pledge to mention China’s mass detention of Muslims in East Turkestan at press conferences, just for one day. 
Or if American churches reached out to Chinese pastors to give sermons about the repression of China’s Christian community.
There will be pushback from the Chinese government, and some events might be labeled as an affront to “Chinese sovereignty” or “the feelings of the Chinese people”—standard rhetorical devices of the Chinese Communist Party.
University administrators may receive warnings or veiled threats in the short term.
But if this sort of interference is met with more campus events, at more universities and institutions, China’s coercion will be rendered ineffective, and its government would have no choice but to back down.
It is important that while we push to preserve freedom of speech on China at Western institutions, we also push to preserve the rights and freedoms of our students from mainland China.
Anti-China sentiment in the U.S. is at historic highs.
Freedom-of-speech operations should be constructed to encourage dialogue and foster norms of critical citizenship.
Done right, these events can protect Americans’ intellectual territory, and demonstrate the value of our open society. 

FONOPs

USS Chancellorsville sails through Taiwan Strait in message to China
By Lucas Tomlinson

For the first time since September, a U.S. warship has transited the Taiwan Strait.
"Guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Nov. 12 (local time) in accordance with international law. 

The ship's transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” said Cmdr. Reann Mommsen, spokesperson for the U.S. 7th fleet.
“The U.S. Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows," he added.
The transit comes as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley visits Japan for a meeting with Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to help repair diplomatic relations with South Korea after a recent spat over intelligence sharing between Tokyo and Seoul.
"All interactions between [Chinese] ships and aircraft were professional and routine” during the transit, a Navy official told Fox News.

The USS Chancellorsville, pictured here earlier this month, conducted the transit

Defense Secretary Mark Esper is set to begin on Wednesday a four-nation Asia tour with stops in South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, according to the Pentagon.
The Taiwan Strait transit was the ninth by the U.S. Navy this year.
The last one occurred in late September, when the USS Antietam, another guided-missile cruiser conducted a similar transit.
That month Esper cautioned European nations from getting too cozy with China, which has been accused of intellectual property theft for decades and charged by the U.S. Justice Department to employ spies to steal state secrets in the United States, including sensitive military technology.
"The more dependent a country becomes on Chinese investment and trade, the more susceptible they are to coercion and retribution when they act outside of Beijing's wishes," Esper said in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London.
Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, the Pentagon under Esper’s leadership has been attempting to pivot away from the region and toward China and Russia.
"China's technology theft for military gain is staggering," Esper said in London.
“Strategic competition with China will be the primary concern for U.S. national security for years to come,” Randall G. Schriver, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, told reporters at the Pentagon in May.
“We certainly don't seek conflict with China and it doesn't preclude cooperation where our interests align,” Schriver added.
Asked about Taiwan Strait transits, Schriver said the strait is international water and “we transit it as we see fit.”
The transit by a US warship comes after Chinese authorities have cracked down on pro-Democracy protesters in Hong Kong, arresting more than 3,000 since June, according to the Associated Press.

FONOPs

U.S. warship challenges Chinese illegal claims in South China Sea

BY JESSE JOHNSON

The guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer prepares to refuel at sea with the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the Pacific Ocean in November 2017

China sent military vessels and aircraft in an attempt to expel a U.S. warship asserting international freedom of navigation rights in the Paracel Islands of the disputed South China Sea on Friday.
The U.S. Navy said in a statement that guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer had conducted a “freedom of navigation operation” (FONOP) without requesting permission from Beijing — or from Hanoi or Taipei, which also claim the archipelago.
The FONOP “challenged the restrictions on innocent passage imposed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam and also contested China’s claim to straight baselines enclosing the Paracel Islands,” said Cmdr. Reann Mommsen, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet.
Under international law, ships of all states — including their warships — enjoy the right of innocent passage through territorial seas.
Mommsen said that the sailing had also “challenged China’s 1996 declaration of straight baselines encompassing the Paracel Islands.”
Beijing has effectively drawn a line around the entire Paracels archipelago in a bid to claim the entire territory, despite rival claims.
Mommsen noted that international law does not permit continental states like China to establish baselines around entire island groups. 

Using these baselines, China, she said, “has attempted to claim more internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, and continental shelf than it is entitled under international law.”

The USS Wayne E. Meyer conducted a similar operation last month, sailing within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of the contested Fiery Cross and Mischief Reefs, two Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea.
That sailing came just days after the Pentagon issued a strong statement that accused Beijing of employing bullying tactics in the waterway, citing what it said was “coercive interference” in oil and gas activities in waters claimed by Vietnam.
Beijing claims much of the South China Sea, though the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims in the waters, where the Chinese, U.S., Japanese and some Southeast Asian navies routinely operate.
Neither Japan nor the U.S. have claims in the waters, but both allies have routinely stated their commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
“U.S. forces routinely conduct freedom of navigation assertions throughout the world, including in the South China Sea, as a routine part of daily operations,” Mommsen said.
“The Freedom of Navigation Program’s missions are conducted peacefully and without bias for or against any particular country,” she added.
Washington has lambasted Beijing for its moves in the waterway, including the construction of man-made islands — such as those in the Paracel chain and further south in the Spratlys — some of which are home to military-grade airfields and advanced weaponry.
The U.S. fears the outposts could be used to restrict free movement in the waterway, which includes vital sea lanes through which about $3 trillion in global trade passes each year. 

The U.S. military regularly conducts FONOPs in the area.
Beijing says it has deployed the advanced weaponry to the islets for defensive purposes, but experts say this is part of a concerted bid to cement de facto control of the waters.
In a defense white paper released for the first time in years in July, China highlighted a new emphasis on “combat readiness and military training in real combat conditions” and China’s new war-fighting capabilities in the Western Pacific and South China Sea.
Beijing, the white paper said, “has organized naval parades in the South China Sea” and “conducted a series of live force-on-force exercises” while its air force “has conducted combat patrols in the South China Sea and security patrols in the East China Sea, and operated in the West Pacific.”

Stop the Beijing Bully in the South China Sea

Destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer Sails Past Fiery Cross, Mischief Reefs in Latest FONOPS
By Megan Eckstein

Sailors man the rails aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) as the ship transits along the coast of Valparaiso, Chile during a parade of ships on Nov. 19, 2018. 

A U.S. destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the Spratly Islands today.
Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG-108) sailed within 12 nautical miles of both Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef today to challenge excessive maritime claims in the South China Sea, U.S. 7th Fleet spokeswoman Cmdr. Reann Mommsen told USNI News.
“U.S. Forces operate in the Indo-Pacific region on a daily basis, including in the South China Sea. All operations are designed in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows,” she said.
Ships operating the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command have conducted several FONOPS this year, with officials saying they wanted FONOPS to be viewed as more routine operations. 

In late May, USS Preble (DDG-88) sailed near the Scarborough Shoal, and earlier that month Preble and USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) steamed within 12 nautical miles of the Gaven and Johnson Reefs.
In February, Preble and USS Spruance (DDG-111) steamed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef, an artificial island China built up in the Spratly Islands chain. 

In January, USS McCampbell (DDG-85) steamed past the Paracel Islands.

Ens. Christian Meyer practices visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) techniques aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) on Aug. 22, 2019. Wayne E. Meyer is deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations in support of security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. 

The South China Sea continues to be a key location where U.S. warships promote freedom of navigation and open international waterways, and also where China has taken a stand this summer. 

A group of Chinese warships, including aircraft carrier Liaoning, sailed through the South China Sea earlier this summer, operating in territorial waters of the Philippines and near Japan.
When Wayne E. Meyer conducted its FONOP today, other ships were in the vicinity, but all interactions were considered routine, a source told USNI News.
Today’s operation comes just after China denied a U.S. Navy request to send a warship to the eastern port city of Qingdao, Reuters first reported. 

The U.S. and China are locked in a growing trade war, and while U.S. Navy ships have made port visits in Chinese cities previously, the rejection of the request may reflect those growing tensions between the two economic powers. 

China also denied two warships access to Hong Kong, the semi-autonomous islands where protests against the government in Beijing are ongoing.
The full statement from U.S. 7th Fleet:
“The guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) conducted a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea, Aug. 28 (local time). Wayne E. Meyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Fiery Cross and Mischief Reefs in order to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law. U.S. Forces operate in the Indo-Pacific region on a daily basis, including in the South China Sea. All operations are designed in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows. That is true in the South China Sea as in other places around the globe. We conduct routine and regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) as we have done in the past and will continue to in the future. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements.”

FONOPs

Canadian warship sails through Taiwan Strait

By NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE


Canada has sailed a frigate through the Taiwan Strait in what officials in Taipei called a freedom of navigation operation, the first since the arrest of a Huawei executive set off a deepening dispute between Ottawa and Beijing.
The HMCS Regina, one Canada’s 12 frigates, sailed through the waters between Taiwan and China on Tuesday. 

It was accompanied by Naval Replenishment Unit Asterix.
The two ships sailed from Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam, where they made their first-ever call on a naval base there.
“The most practical route between Cam Ranh Bay and Northeast Asia involves sailing through the Taiwan Strait,” Jessica Lamirande, spokesperson for Canada’s Department of National Defence, said in a statement. 

“Transit through the Taiwan Strait is not related to making any statement.”
Another frigate, the HMCS Calgary, passed through the Taiwan Strait last October, the department said.
But the Canadian naval transit, which is unlikely to please Beijing, forms “part of the new Canadian position towards China,” said Guy Saint-Jacques, the former Canadian ambassador to China, after the arrest of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou and subsequent Chinese arrest of two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence released a statement Wednesday that called the passage of the two Canadian ships a “freedom of navigation” operation. 

Taiwan’s state-owned Central News Agency also said that the HMCS Regina activated its automatic identification system during the transit, which allows the general public a view into its movements. Military ships often keep that system turned off to avoid advertising their position.
“In terms of movement of ships, you don’t have to announce ahead of time what they are called. You just have to go through the strait, and it’s obvious what we are trying to demonstrate,” Mr. Saint-Jacques said.
”The Trudeau government is starting to assert itself more, and questions like freedom of navigation are important ones,” Mr. Saint-Jacques said.
“It sends the signal that Canada is aligning with the U.S. and with other countries like Australia and France that have sent ships to the Taiwan Strait – that freedom of navigation is important and that we don’t recognize Chinese claims to sovereignty in that part of the world.”
Taiwan is a self-ruling region with its own military and foreign policy that Beijing claims as part of its territory. 

China has repeatedly conducted military drills simulating the invasion of Taiwan, and in recent years has sent bombers on “encirclement” flights. 

Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to bring Taipei under its command.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency called Taiwan a “primary driver for China’s military modernization.” 

In its 2019 China Military Power Report, the U.S. said “Beijing’s anticipation that foreign forces would intervene in a Taiwan scenario led the PLA to develop a range of systems to deter and deny foreign regional force projection,” the report states. 

The PLA is China’s People’s Liberation Army.
The U.S. regularly sends its own naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, including most recently on May 22. 

A French frigate also passed through the waters in April, an unusual voyage for a European military ship.
Beijing typically responds with anger at those movements, calling them illegal and lodging diplomatic complaints.
Canada’s military has taken a more active role in Asia in recent years, including sending a submarine and two frigates to the region last year to “build relationships, work with trusted international partners, and contribute to multinational efforts to counter North Korea’s maritime smuggling activity while in the region,” Ms. Lamirande said.

Stop Chinese Bullying

Germany may join US in opposing China by sending warship through Taiwan Strait, breaking decades of military non-confrontation

politico.com 

German navy supply vessel A1411 Berlin is moored during the opening parade of the 830th port anniversary in Hamburg in May. 

Germany is considering a break from decades of military non-confrontation.
High ranking officials are contemplating sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait – joining the United States and France in challenging Beijing’s claims to what the West regards as an international waterway.
If Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government actually goes ahead, it will be a remarkable revision of its we-keep-out-of-conflict reflexes. 

Germany will be openly backing its allies in a strategy certain to be found provocative by the country’s enforcers of non-combatant passivity.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel takes part in a disussion at an event in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday.

Recent examples of Germany’s reluctance to engage include the withdrawal of its navy from the combat zone during the West’s Libyan intervention in 2011, caveats on its troop deployments in Afghanistan and its decision not to participate directly in attacks on Islamic State forces in Syria – unlike its Nato neighbours Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and France.
A German official informed me of the Taiwan Strait plan last month. 

Last week, a second German official, at my request, confirmed its discussion by the defence ministry. No firm decision was expected before the end of the summer.
The strait in question is the body of water between China and Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be its territorial zone. 

When a French frigate transited in April, it was shadowed by Chinese military and warned to leave. Beijing said it made “stern representations” to Paris about the vessel’s “illegal” passage.
Later that month, the United States sent two destroyers into the strait “demonstrating the US’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific”, according to an American spokesman.
The US has prioritised countering China’s military rise since the early days of Barack Obama’s presidency. 

Why would Germany get involved? 

Members in Merkel’s government see a double opportunity, given Berlin’s lousy relations with US President Donald Trump and wide disrespect elsewhere for its hide-under-the-bed routine.
It certainly would not hurt to back up the US at a time when Washington has suspended threats of tariffs for six months on imported German cars.
The naval mission would also be an opportunity to show up France, which likes to portray itself as the European Union’s sole functional military power and which has responded to Merkel’s opposition to most of President Emmanuel Macron’s reform proposals for the EU by becoming one of Germany’s sharpest critics.

The guided-missile destroyer USS William P Lawrence practices ship maneuvers as it transits the Pacific Ocean in June 2018. 

France has just spent two years and €1.3 billion (US$1.46 billion) to refurbish its atomic-powered carrier, the Charles de Gaulle. 

French generals have accused Berlin of running a “non-combat” army. 

Macron himself has said that Germany’s growth model, based on profiting from imbalances in the euro zone, is at an end.
His openness has emboldened French commentators to pick up the now authorised lash. 

Zaki Laidi, a professor at Sciences Po, the French political science university, wrote last month that Merkel “has done absolutely nothing’’ to change Germany’s role as a rich global bystander protected by America.
The question now is whether the government, faced with deepening political weakness at home, will challenge that portrayal and actually follow through with the plan for projecting power.
The signs are not overwhelmingly promising. 

Merkel’s apparent valedictory speech at the Harvard University commencement last week was a time warp moment – a pretend flashback to a time when Germany was the uncontested European leader, bathing in cash, moderation and the overdrawn favour of Obama.
In reality, Germany is politically riven to the edge of instability. 

Its economic prospects are dim. 

Merkel’s paralytic coalition with the Social Democrats has “cave-in” scrawled all over it two years before she is expected to leave office in 2021.
Polls over the weekend measured the depth of Germany’s cracks.

A tugboat escorts French Navy frigate Vendemiaire on arrival for a goodwill visit at a port in Metro Manila, Philippines in March 2018. 

For the first time since the Green Party became a player in the early 1980s, the environmentalist movement surpassed Merkel’s Christian Democrats in a projection of national election results. 

The Social Democrats sank to a historical low, just a point ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Economically, what Merkel once called Germany’s “Beacon to the World” keeps flashing dimmer shades of yellow. 

The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry reports that gross domestic product growth will fall to 0.6 per cent this year, with little prospect for improvement in 2020.
Worse still: the chancellor’s chosen successor, CDU party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, is failing in her job preparation. 

A poll last week showed that 70 per cent of the Germans think she is not up to the task.
Among her ideas: a “symbolic project” for Germany and France to jointly build an aircraft carrier to demonstrate the EU’s role as a “security and peace power” – without detailing its mission. 

Forced to deal with her protege’s fantasy, while refusing herself to meet Nato’s spending targets, Merkel has been cornered into saying “it’s right and good”.
In this context, launching a naval in-your-face operation off the coast of Taiwan would constitute a groundbreaking but unfamiliar act of valour.

Admirably, there are German officials who want to combat the notion that the country is an irresponsible and non-committal ally. 

More power to them. 

The place to do that is the international waters of the Taiwan Strait. 

Now, the German navy needs to get that far.

South China Sea and East China Sea Sanctions Act

Rubio, Cardin Reintroduce Bill Targeting Chinese Aggression in South China Sea

Washington, D.C. — U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) today reintroduced the South China Sea and East China Sea Sanctions Act, a bipartisan bill to impose sanctions against Chinese individuals and entities that participate in Beijing’s illegitimate activities to aggressively assert its expansive maritime and territorial claims in these disputed regions. 

Co-sponsored by 14 Senators, this legislation is timely given ongoing efforts by the United States to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. 

Read more about this bipartisan legislation in the South China Morning Post.
“This bipartisan bill seeks to reinforce America’s strong and enduring commitment to securing a free and open Indo-Pacific, including in the South China Sea and East China Sea,” Rubio said. 

 “Because the Chinese Government’s ongoing and flagrant violations of international norms in the South China and East China Seas cannot go unchecked, this legislation authorizes new sanctions to put Beijing on notice that the United States means business and intends to hold violators accountable.”
“China has been bully in both the South and East China Seas, encroaching on and intimidating its neighbors. Such aggressive behavior cannot go on unchecked,” Cardin said. 

“The United States will defend the free-flow of commerce and freedom of navigation, as well as promote the peaceful diplomatic resolution of disputes consistent with international law. I am pleased to join Senator Rubio and our colleagues to send a strong bipartisan message in defense of our national interests and those of our allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region. Our legislation underscores America’s continued commitment to promote freedom and uphold the rule of law in East Asia.”

Joining Rubio and Cardin as original cosponsors of the legislation are Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Todd Young (R-IN), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Rick Scott (R-FL), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), John Cornyn (R-TX), Doug Jones (D-AL), and Mitt Romney (R-UT).

Rival South China Sea visions in spotlight as Washington, Beijing front Shangri-La Dialogue

By Brad Lendon

Hong Kong -- With China-US relations already strained amid an escalating trade war, attention is about to turn to a familiar arena -- the South China Sea.
After years of stand-offs and brinkmanship in the hotly contested region, acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan is expected to unveil the Pentagon's new Indo-Pacific strategy at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday.
Intriguingly, just one day later Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe is scheduled to speak about Beijing's role in the Indo-Pacific -- the highest-ranking Chinese official to appear at Asia's premier defense conference in eight years.
Their presence is significant. 

Beijing claims almost the entire 1.3 million square mile South China Sea as its sovereign territory and aggressively asserts its stake, with Xi Jinping saying it will never give up "any inch of territory."
US military officials, meanwhile, have vowed to continue enforcing a free and open Indo-Pacific.

The Chinese Type 52D guided missile destroyer Guiyang participates in a naval parade on April 23, 2019.

William Choong, senior fellow at the Shangri-La Dialogue, said in a tweet Tuesday that the presence of both Wei and Shanahan would set up "a clash of two visions — the US/Japan-led 'free and open' Indo-Pacific and China's 'Asia for Asians.'"
Analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, told CNN: "Chinese leaders now recognize the value of multilateral defense venues and want to deny the US a monopoly of great power influence."
US intentions for the region have already been telegraphed strongly.
The Pentagon has stepped up freedom-of-navigation operations to as often as weekly. 

And the commander of the US Pacific Air Forces said this month that Air Force jets were flying in and around the South China Sea almost daily.
Washington has also sent warships through the Taiwan Strait separating China from what it calls its renegade province several times this year.
One of Washington's Taiwan Strait operations included a US Coast Guard cutter, which later sailed into the South China Sea — sending the fifth arm of its military and its main maritime law enforcement agency into the Pacific fray.
More robust US armament packages also seem to be part of the plan. 

For bilateral exercises with the Philippines in April, the US loaded the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp with 10 F-35B stealth fighters — four more than it normally carries — and sailed it into the South China Sea.

The amphibious assault ship USS Wasp transits the waters of the South China Sea with a large load of F-35 fighters.

Of course, it's not just the US that's active around the region. 

Its allies and partners are also involved.
France sent a ship through the Taiwan Strait this year, and is showing off its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier on the sidelines of the conference. 

In May alone, Japanese, Indian, Philippine and US ships took part in a multilateral South China Sea exercise — while conference host Singapore held live-fire drills with India. 

A four-ship Australian naval force also visited countries around the region in a three-month trip that ended this week.
Meanwhile, US officials have bigger plans for the coming year.
In a conference call with reporters this month, US chief of naval operations Adm. John Richardson reiterated plans for the forward deployment of two littoral combat ships — fast, maneuverable warships designed for shallow-water operations — to Singapore this year. 

The ships would be the US Navy assets stationed closest to the South China Sea.
And in March, the commander of US Army forces in the Pacific, Gen. Robert Brown, announced plans to train 10,000 US troops for combat in "a South China Sea scenario." 

The Philippines and Thailand were mentioned as possible destinations for the troops.
The US pressure on Beijing extends back to Washington, where a bipartisan group of senators last week introduced legislation that would impose sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals who help the PLA's South China Sea build-up.
"China has been bully in both the South and East China Seas, encroaching on and intimidating its neighbors. Such aggressive behavior cannot go on unchecked," Sen. Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said in a statement.
For its part, China hasn't backed down at all: launching new warships, touting new weapons, keeping its forces active in the South China Sea — around Taiwan and beyond — and blasting Washington.
Beijing says it is the US that endangers peace in the region.

What are China's naval goals? The West can't wait to find out

On May 12, it launched two Type-52D destroyers in a single day — the 19th and 20th of what are expected to be 30 ships in that class.
A US Defense Department report released in early May said China had Asia's largest navy, with more than 300 ships and submarines.
Military analyst Euan Graham, who was aboard an Australian warship during a recent South China Sea operation, said it and other Australian and US ships operating in the region were all closely monitored by the Chinese navy.
"The ubiquity of PLAN (PLA Navy) vessels shadowing other warships in the (South China Sea) suggests that China's surface force has grown big enough to be able to 'close-mark' at will," Graham wrote on The Strategist blog.
Meanwhile, the PLA Navy has held training exercises with Russia off China's east coast and with Thailand to the south.
To the north, Chinese air force jets in April conducted what Taiwan said was their most "provocative" mission in years in the Taiwan Strait, crossing the median line between the island and the mainland.
"It was an intentional, reckless and provocative action. We've informed regional partners and condemn China for such behavior," Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
But it's clear Taiwan can't expect much quarter from China.
A May report on the PLA's English-language website touted a new amphibious assault vehicle as "the world's most advanced." 

With its help, combined with other weapons in China's arsenal, "the People's Liberation Army is well positioned to deal with Taiwan secessionists and potential island disputes."
The Shangri-La Dialogue touts itself as a venue "where ministers debate the region's most pressing security challenges, engage in important bilateral talks and come up with fresh solutions together."
But against that backdrop of bluster and build-up, it's hard to expect any compromises to emerge from what Wei and Shanahan have to say.

Stopping the Chinese Bully

U.S. Navy again sails through Taiwan Strait

By Idrees Ali

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Preble (DDG 88) transits the Indian Ocean March 29, 2018. Picture taken March 29, 2018. 

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. military said it sent two Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, its latest transit through the strategic waterway.
Taiwan is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the U.S.-China relationship, which also include a trade war, U.S. sanctions and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea, where the United States also conducts freedom-of-navigation patrols.
The voyage will be viewed by Taiwan as a sign of support from the Trump administration amid growing friction between Taipei and Beijing, which views the island as a breakaway province.
The transit was carried out by the destroyer Preble and the Navy oil tanker Walter S. Diehl, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters.
“The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said in a statement.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the two U.S. ships had sailed north through the Taiwan Strait and that they had monitored the mission.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said there was no cause for alarm.
“Nothing abnormal happened during it, please everyone rest assured,” she wrote on her Facebook page.
U.S. warships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait at least once a month since the start of this year. The United States restarted such missions on a regular basis last July.
The United States has no formal ties with Taiwan but is bound by law to help provide the island with the means to defend itself and is its main source of arms.
The Pentagon says Washington has sold Taipei more than $15 billion in weaponry since 2010.
China has been ramping up pressure to assert its sovereignty over the island, which it considers part of “one China” and sacred Chinese territory, to be brought under Beijing’s control by force if needed.
Beijing said a recent Taiwan Strait passage by a French warship, first reported by Reuters, was illegal.
China has repeatedly sent military aircraft and ships to circle Taiwan on exercises in the past few years and worked to isolate it internationally, whittling down its few remaining diplomatic allies.
The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency released a report earlier this year describing Taiwan as the “primary driver” for China’s military modernization, which it said had made major advances in recent years.
On Sunday, the Preble sailed near Scarborough Shoal claimed by China in the South China Sea.

Military Sealift Command fleet replenishment oiler USNS Walter S. Diehl (T-AO 193) pulls alongside hospital ship USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) to deliver supplies and mail by a connected replenishment in the South China Sea August 15, 2016. Picture taken August 15, 2016. 

FONOPs

U.S. warship sails near the Scarborough Shoal
By Idrees Ali

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Preble (DDG 88) transits in the the Indian Ocean, March 29, 2018.

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. military said one of its warships sailed near the disputed Scarborough Shoal claimed by China in the South China Sea on Sunday.
The busy waterway is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the U.S.-China relationship, which include a trade war, U.S. sanctions and Taiwan.
China struck a more aggressive tone in its trade war with the United States on Friday.
The tough talk capped a week that saw China unveil new retaliatory tariffs in response to a U.S. decision to raise its levies on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%.
The U.S. destroyer Preble carried out the operation, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters.
“Preble sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Reef in order to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law,” said Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the Seventh Fleet.
It was the second such U.S. military operation in the South China Sea in the last month.
On Wednesday, the chief of the U.S. Navy said its freedom of navigation movements in the disputed South China Sea drew more attention than they deserved.
The U.S. military has a long-standing position that its operations are carried out throughout the world, including areas claimed by allies, and they are separate from political considerations.
The operation was the latest attempt to counter what Washington sees as Beijing’s efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the strategic waters, where Chinese, Japanese and some Southeast Asian navies operate.
China claims almost all of the strategic South China Sea and frequently lambastes the United States and its allies over naval operations near Chinese-occupied islands.
Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims in the region.
China and the United States have repeatedly traded barbs in the past over what Washington says is Beijing’s militarization of the South China Sea by building military installations on artificial islands and reefs.

FONOPs

Two U.S. warships sail in disputed South China Sea

By Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. military said two of its warships sailed near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea on Monday, a move that angered Beijing at a time of tense ties between the world’s two biggest economies.
The busy waterway is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the U.S.-China relationship, which also include a trade war, U.S. sanctions and Taiwan.
President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China to reach a trade deal by threatening to hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week and soon target hundreds of billions more.
The U.S. guided-missile destroyers Preble and Chung Hoon traveled within 12 nautical miles of Gaven and Johnson Reefs in the Spratly Islands, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters.
Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the Seventh Fleet, said the “innocent passage” aimed “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law”.
The operation was first reported by Reuters.

The U.S. military has a long-standing position that its operations are carried out throughout the world, including areas claimed by allies, and that they are separate from political considerations.
The operation was the latest attempt to counter what Washington sees as Beijing’s efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the strategic waters, where Chinese, Japanese and some Southeast Asian navies operate.
China claims almost all of the strategic South China Sea and frequently lambasts the United States and its allies over naval operations near Chinese-occupied islands.
Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims in the region.
China and the United States have repeatedly traded barbs in the past over what Washington says is Beijing’s militarization of the South China Sea by building military installations on artificial islands and reefs.
China defends its construction as necessary for self-defense and says the United States is responsible for ratcheting up tension in the region by sending warships and military planes close to islands Beijing claims.
The freedom of navigation operation comes weeks after a major naval parade marking 70 years since the founding of the Chinese navy. 

The United States sent only a low-level delegation to the Chinese navy anniversary events.

Two US warships sail through Taiwan Strait in challenge to China

Destroyers William P Lawrence and Stethem transited through the waterway on Sunday as Pentagon ups the ante with Beijing

Reuters

The guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem, pictured, sailed through the Taiwan Strait with USS William P Lawrence on Sunday. 

The US military has sent two navy warships through the Taiwan Strait as the Pentagon increases the frequency of movement through the strategic waterway despite opposition from China.
Sunday’s voyage risks further raising tensions with China but will likely be viewed by Taiwan as a sign of support from the Trump administration amid growing friction between Taipei and Beijing.

Taiwan is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the US-China relationship, which also include a trade war, US sanctions and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea, where the United States also conducts freedom-of-navigation patrols.
The two destroyers were identified as the William P Lawrence and Stethem. 

The 180km-wide (112-mile) Taiwan Strait separates Taiwan from China.
“The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the US navy’s seventh fleet, said in a statement.
Doss said there were no unsafe or unprofessional interactions with other countries’ vessels during the transit.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said the US ships had sailed north through the strait.
“US ships freely passing through the Taiwan Strait is part of the mission of carrying out the Indo-Pacific strategy,” it said in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from China.
The United States has no formal ties with Taiwan but is bound by law to help provide the island with the means to defend itself and is its main source of arms.
The Pentagon says Washington has sold Taipei more than $15bn in weaponry since 2010.
China has been ramping up pressure to assert its sovereignty over the island, which it considers a wayward province of “one China” and "sacred" Chinese territory.
It said a recent Taiwan Strait passage by a French warship, first reported by Reuters on Wednesday, was “illegal”.
Beijing’s concerns about Taiwan are likely to factor strongly into this year’s Chinese defense budget, following a stern New Year’s speech from Xi Jinping, threatening to attack Taiwan should it not accept Chinese rule.
China has repeatedly sent military aircraft and ships to circle the island on drills in the past few years and worked to isolate it internationally, whittling down its few remaining diplomatic allies.

US warships sail through the Taiwan Strait again, putting pressure on Beijing

• Two US Navy warships — the destroyer USS Stethem and the fleet oiler USNS Cesar Chavez — conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Monday.
• The passage sent the message to Beijing that the US will "fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows" and that these trips through the closely watched waterway will occur regularly.
• Monday's trip marks the fourth since October and the fifth since the US Navy restarted the practice of sending surface combatants through the strait last July.
• Chinese warships trailed the US ships.
• News of the latest transit comes as the Trump administration announces that the US and China are close to an agreement on trade.

By Ryan Pickrell

Two US Navy warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Monday, sending a message to Beijing, which has warned the US to "tread lightly" in the closely watched waterway.
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem and the replenishment oiler USNS Cesar Chavez navigated a "routine" Taiwan Strait transit Monday, the US Pacific Fleet told Business Insider in an emailed statement.
"The ships' transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The US Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows," the Pacific Fleet said.
The two US Navy vessels that passed through the Taiwan Strait were shadowed by People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships.
The passage is the fourth since October and the fifth since the US Navy restarted the practice of sending surface combatants through the strait last July.
The Taiwan Strait is a roughly 80-mile international waterway that separates the democratic island from the communist mainland, and China regularly bristles when US Navy vessels sail through. When a US destroyer and a fleet oiler transited the strait in January, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the passage "provocative behavior," accusing the US of "threatening the safety" of those nearby.
Beijing considers Taiwan, a self-ruled territory, to be a renegade province, and it firmly opposes US military support for the island, be that arms sales, protection assurances, or even just the US military operating in the area. 

China has repeatedly urged the US to keep its distance from Taiwan, but the US Navy has continued its "routine" trips through the strait. 

"We see the Taiwan Strait as another (stretch of) international waters, so that's why we do the transits," Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said in January.
The rhetoric used by the Navy to characterize the Taiwan Strait transits is almost identical to that used to describe US freedom-of-navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea.
The Navy has already conducted two FONOPs this year, angering Beijing both times.

National security adviser John Bolton Warns China Against Limiting Free Passage in South China Sea

Remarks served as warning to Southeast Asian leaders, who are preparing for a summit in Singapore this week
By Jake Maxwell Watts

National security adviser John Bolton speaks in Miami on Nov. 1. Mr. Bolton said Tuesday that U.S. vessels would continue to sail through the South China Sea. 

SINGAPORE—National security adviser John Bolton said the U.S. would oppose any agreements between China and other claimants to the South China Sea that limit free passage to international shipping, and that American naval vessels would continue to sail through those waters.
Mr. Bolton’s remarks served as a warning to Southeast Asian leaders, who are preparing for a regional summit in Singapore this week, and particularly for the Philippines, which is now in talks with Beijing about jointly exploring natural resources in the contested area.
In meetings to develop a code of conduct this year for the South China Sea, China has tried to secure a veto over Southeast Asian nations hosting military exercises with other countries in the disputed waters.
Such a deal would have the potential to limit U.S. military engagement with countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Beijing has also urged its southern neighbors to develop the region’s resources only with other countries in the region, according to people familiar with the draft text, which has been years in the making.
Chinese officials have previously declined to comment on the talks, which are continuing. 

Security analysts say Southeast Asian countries are unlikely to accept any proposal that would preclude them from exercises with the U.S.
Mr. Bolton said the U.S. welcomes the negotiations in principle. 

In a media briefing in Singapore, he described them as a plus.
But he stressed that “the outcome has to be mutually acceptable, and also has to be acceptable to all the countries that have legitimate maritime and naval rights to transit and other associate rights that we don’t want to see infringed.”

The USS Ronald Reagan and the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius, conduct an exercise in the South China Sea.

China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea, has built up several small atolls and constructed military bases on them, providing it with a strategic advantage over the region’s smaller claimants, which include the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. 

Taiwan also has competing claims, while countries such as Japan and South Korea depend on the shipping routes to supply nearly all of their oil needs.
The U.S. military has responded by conducting regular patrols that challenge China’s claims of sovereignty by sailing near or flying over the reclaimed islands, leading to several tense brushes with Chinese military vessels. 

Mr. Bolton said Tuesday that the U.S. will continue the faster pace of these missions and increase both military spending and the level of engagement with other countries in the region to reinforce its position.
Some leaders in Southeast Asia have opted to engage Beijing, hoping that cooperating with China will at least provide some economic benefit.
Among them is President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, who is expected to welcome Chinese dictator Xi Jinping to Manila next week. 

It isn’t known whether the two leaders will announce the conclusion of a deal on joint resource exploration.
A broader code of conduct between China and Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, appears some way off.
In a speech Tuesday morning in Singapore, Li Keqiang said Beijing hopes the agreement “will be finished in three years’ time,” dashing hopes of substantial progress by the conclusion of this week’s leaders’ summit.
The heads of government for Southeast Asia’s 10 countries are meeting this week in Singapore for an annual summit and will be joined by leaders from eight other countries including Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.
China in particular is trying to drum up support for a free-trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes the Southeast Asian nations plus China, India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. 

Negotiations for the pact picked up speed after President Trump pulled the U.S. out of a rival trans-Pacific trade agreement that excluded China. 

Li said Tuesday that talks would continue into next year.
Mr. Bolton said the U.S. is instead trying to drive more bilateral trade with key partners, such as Japan.
“I think the level of diplomatic activity has picked up,” he said. 

“I think this is a strategy that is still being shaped but it’s being received very well and we’re continuing to pursue it.”

The Necessary War

Is a US-China war inevitable?
By James Reinl
US Navy in the South China Sea

New York City -- Chinese dictator Xi Jinping's recent talk of "preparing for war and combat" is just the latest example of tough language that has stoked fears of a military flare-up with the United States.
Last week, Xi told his military commanders in Guangdong province to "concentrate preparations for fighting a war", in comments distributed by government-run media following a four-day visit to the south.
Meanwhile, retired US Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges said it was likely the US would be at war with China within 15 years thanks to a "tense relationship and increasing competition" between the world's two greatest economies.
With sabre-rattling on both sides, two long-standing issues between Beijing, Washington, and others have come to the fore as potential flashpoints -- the disputed South China Sea and Taiwan, which China views as a renegade province.
Al Jazeera spoke with US-China experts who said while all-out conflict was possible, there remained little chances to negotiate, compromise and manage a competitive relationship between Washington and Beijing.
"They're both actively preparing for war," Bonnie Glaser, a former Pentagon consultant, told Al Jazeera.

Sharpening approach
Washington's efforts to manage and accommodate China's growing economic and military clout have shifted under US President Donald Trump, who has slapped tariffs on Chinese imports and accused Beijing of trading unfairly and stealing intellectual property.
This month, Vice President Mike Pence spoke at a think-tank about cyber-attacks, Taiwan, freedom of the seas and human rights in a policy address that highlighted a sharpening US approach to China beyond the bitter trade war.
China was waging a sophisticated effort to sway the elections against President Trump's Republicans in retaliation for the White House's trade policies. 

He vowed to continue exposing Beijing's malign influence and interference.
China was deploying anti-ship and anti-air missiles on artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea, Pence said.
He also accused Beijing of bullying smaller countries and destabilising Taiwan by pressuring three Latin American countries to cut ties with Taipei.
There have already been real-world consequences.
Last month, the USS Decatur was sailing near Gaven Reef in the South China Sea, when a Chinese destroyer approached within 45 metres and forced the US vessel to manoeuvre to avoid a collision.
Washington sends warships on freedom of navigation exercises through the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait to show they are international waters and counter Chinese claims, as well as bolster US allies in the region.
The Trump administration has struck two arms deals with Taiwan worth more than a $1.7bn combined.
In September, Washington slapped sanctions on China's military for buying fighter jets and missile systems from Russia.
China has responded by calling off high-level military-to-military talks, cancelling US Secretary of Defence James Mattis' visit to Beijing and conducting live-fire drills with bombers and fighter jets in the South China Sea.
While China's economic growth has been slowed by the trade war, it is still expanding more than twice as fast as the US' and the state is pouring money into new technologies, such as quantum computing, biotech and artificial intelligence.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has launched more submarines, warships and other vessels since 2014 than the number of ships currently serving in the combined navies of Germany, India, Spain, Taiwan and Britain.

Analysts recall past political crises between the US and China. 

In 2001, a US spy plane was forced to land on Hainan after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet. 

In 1996, then-US president Bill Clinton dispatched aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait over Chinese missile tests.
"There's a whole basket of issues that could lead to a US-China conflict," Gregory Poling, an Asia and maritime law expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera.
"The South China Sea is the thorniest. It gets right at the heart of US primacy in the region, the international order that Washington built up since World War II and China's willingness to bully neighbours and challenge that rules-based order."
The sea covers some 1.7 million square kilometres and contains more than 200 mostly uninhabitable small islands, rocks and reefs.
It is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and has some of the world's busiest shipping lanes.
Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are involved in a complex set of historically based territorial disputes there.
China's claims, the broadest, cover all of the Spratly and Paracel Islands -- and most of the South China Sea.
The dispute has intensified political and military rivalry across the region between the rising power of China, which has been projecting its growing naval reach, and the long-dominant player, the United States, which is deepening its ties with Japan, the Philippines and others.
"Washington needs to wake up and realise that while the South China Sea is quiet right now, we are losing. Every day the Chinese position gets stronger, the positions of the other claimants gets weaker, and they have to question the credibility of the US more every day," Poling said.
There are also signs of progress, added Poling. 

This year, the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China started formal talks on a legally binding code of conduct to ease tensions over the strategic waterway.
Taiwan is also spoken about as a powder keg.
Last week, China's Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe vowed any effort to "to separate Taiwan from China" would result in China's armed forces taking "action at any price".
China has claimed self-ruled Taiwan through its "one China" policy since 1949 and vows to bring it under Beijing's rule - by force if necessary.
The US is obliged to help Taiwan with the means to defend itself under the US Congress 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

War with China Casualties
	2016 Population	Killed		Survivors
CHINA	1 373 541 278	1 057 119 689	77%	316 421 589
UNITED STATES	323 995 528	19 089 783	6%	304 905 745
EUROPEAN UNION	513 949 445	371 356 958	72%	142 592 487
RUSSIA	142 355 415	30 924 816	22%	111 430 599
INDIA	1 266 883 598	1 158 499 174	91%	108 384 424
PAKISTAN	201 995 540	175 747 473	87%	26 248 067
JAPAN	126 702 133	114 241 889	90%	12 460 244
VIETNAM	95 261 021	84 340 688	89%	10 920 333
PHILIPPINES	102 624 209	92 732 902	90%	9 891 307
KOREA, NORTH	25 115 311	21 141 050	84%	3 974 261
KOREA, SOUTH	50 924 172	47 636 302	94%	3 287 870
TAIWAN	23 464 787	22 278 490	95%	1 186 297
	4 246 812 437	3 195 109 214	75%	1 051 703 223