Sina Delenda Est

How President Trump can put pressure on China over North Korea's nuclear threat
By Oren Dorell

U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressuring China to do more to curb North Korea's nuclear and long-range missile activities. 

President Trump expressed frustration Wednesday that China is not doing enough to pressure its ally, North Korea, to halt its nuclear weapon and missile programs, and signaled that he may turn to other options to thwart North Korea's ambitions.
“Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter,” Trump tweeted. 

“So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try!”

Trump’s tweet came after North Korea on Tuesday successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska. 

The missile, able to carry a nuclear warhead, is intended to “put an end to the U.S. nuclear war threat and blackmail,” according to a statement by North Korea’s official news agency.
Here are some options Trump has available:

Enforce current U.N. sanctions
At an emergency meeting Wednesday of the United Nations Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said countries around the world face a choice: Trade with North Korea or trade with the United States.
"Countries that are allowing, even encouraging trade with North Korea in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions ... also would like to maintain their trade relationship with the United States," Haley said. 

"That’s not going to happen."
The U.S. has considerable military capabilities, "but we prefer not to go in that direction," Haley said.
The latest sanctions resolution passed by the U.N. Security Council in November was touted as the strongest ever, but the State Department and analysts say those measures have yet to be fully enforced.
The sanctions limit North Korea’s sale of conventional weapons, coal and iron ore, especially if revenue would benefit its nuclear or ballistic missile programs.
China, which handles 90% of North Korea's trade with other countries, increased trade with North Korea 37% in the first quarter of this year, just before Beijing announced it would cut back buying cheap, high-quality North Korean anthracite coal, said economist Thomas Byrne, president of The Korea Society, a New York City-based group that promotes U.S.-Korean understanding.
The increase appeared to be caused by companies that "topped off" before the sanctions went into effect, he said.
North Korea also trades with Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Iran and Congo. 

"Iran and other countries do small amounts of trade that add up," Byrne said.
China and other countries are clearly not implementing all the U.N. sanctions, said Anthony Ruggiero, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
Some of those countries need help from the U.S. to screen for complicated financial arrangements designed to hide North Korean involvement, while others are not interested in implementing the sanctions because they benefit from cut-rate North Korean pricing, Ruggiero said.

This picture purportedly taken on July 4, 2017 and released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on July 5, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) celebrating the successful test-fire of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 at an undisclosed location. 

Stop Chinese missile carriers
The U.S. could start calling out companies involved in North Korea's weapons programs, such as two Chinese trucking companies that provided or helped build large vehicles that North Korea uses to transport, erect and launch its missiles, said Richard Fisher, a China and Korea analyst at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
The China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and the China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, or Sinotruk, have provided trucks or large missile carriers that North Korea uses to transport missiles aimed at U.S. forces in Asia, Fisher said. 

The vehicles were displayed in an April 15 military parade, where North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s forces showed off their capabilities.

A primary school student An Jae-Gwon (10) poses for a portrait during a festive 'children's day' event at 'Primary School Number 4' in Pyongyang, June 6, 2017.

"In order for those trucks to carry the missile, the missile company has to be involved," Fisher said. "We should have no problem demanding that the Chinese take back all these large 16-wheel transporter erector launchers."

Expose Beijing's support
U.S. intelligence officials could expose companies involved in helping North Korea obtain the capacity to produce lithium-6. 

It is crucial to develop thermonuclear weapons — hydrogen bombs and boosted atomic bombs — that produce a far more powerful blast than atomic bombs, Fisher said.
According to a March 17 report by the Institute for Science and International Security, citing government sources, North Korea arranged in 2012 to purchase industrial equipment and materials in China, including mercury and lithium hydroxide. 

Those substances have civilian as well as military uses, but together indicate an effort to produce lithium-6 for weapons, according to the institute's report.
That means the Chinese government approved the transfer of technology to manufacture thermonuclear weapons to North Korea, Fisher said.
“It’s simply inconceivable that the Chinese government would have allowed the transfer of this kind of technology without multilevel approval up to the Chinese Communist Party politburo,” he said. 

Seek tougher U.N. sanctions
Haley on Wednesday urged the Security Council to tighten sanctions against North Korea, but China and Russia expressed reservations.
China's envoy, Liu Jieyi, called North Korea's missile test unacceptable and called "on all parties to refrain from provocative actions and statements and to engage in full talks to resolve this issue."
Russia's deputy U.N. ambassador, Vladimir Safronkov, said, "Any attempts to justify a military solution are inadmissible and may lead to destabilization of the region. Attempts to economically strangle North Korea are equally inadmissible."
The November sanctions resolution “calls upon” the international community to “exercise vigilance” over North Korean activities that produce revenue for the regime and its weapons program. 

These include workers sent abroad by North Korea to earn hard currency used for the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, according to the resolution.
This “slave labor,” Ruggiero said, has been used to build World Cup facilities in Qatar and St. Petersburg, Russia, in the Russian logging industry and in Kuwait, generating $500 million annually for North Korea.
Tillerson should seek a change to the resolution's permissive language to an outright ban, Ruggiero said. 

And the U.S. push for a new resolution that cuts off North Korea’s access to revenue streams from laborers and to counter illicit activities such as cyber bank heists and drug trafficking, Ruggiero said.

Impose U.S.-coalition sanctions
The U.S. could bypass the Security Council and impose its own sanctions. 

The Trump administration could develop a multinational coalition to cut off revenue to the North Korean government, like the Obama administration did to counter Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
The U.S. and its allies should issue arrest warrants for senior company officers in China and other countries who participate in military assistance programs that benefit North Korea, and seize their assets, Fisher said.
They could start with targeting individuals, companies and financial institutions that did business with the Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Company, a Chinese firm named in U.S. sanctions issued in September, or citizens of China, Russia, Vietnam and Cuba who worked with North Koreans named in sanctions issued on March 31. 

The two sets of sanctions targeted Chinese and North Koreans alleged to have raised money to fund illicit North Korean proliferation activities.
"The Dandong Hongxiang company (and four of its officers) is sanctioned, but 22 front companies are not, and no banks were sanctioned in the recent action," Ruggiero said.

Cut access to U.S. banks
The Treasury Department could cut off access to the U.S. financial system for banks, companies and individuals anywhere in the world who do business with North Korean entities. 

That would shut down North Korea’s missile and conventional weapons sales, which represent 40% of the nation’s economy, said Bruce Bechtol, a political science professor at Angelo State University in Texas and an expert on North Korea.
A financial dragnet that covers all foreign intermediaries working on North Korea’s behalf, including banks involved in money laundering, front companies and foreign individuals who establish bank accounts in return for financial kickbacks “would bring North Korea to its knees,” Bechtol said.
Last week, the Treasury Department did just that, cutting off a Chinese bank, a shipping company and two Chinese individuals from the U.S. financial system because of their support for North Korea.
"We will follow the money, and cut off the money," Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on June 29.

The War can begin

China deploys long-range nuclear-capable missiles to coast in response to U.S. 'aggression'
By Rachel Roberts 

China has moved long-range missiles to the Russian border from where they could reach the USA, apparently in response to President Donald Trump’s "aggression", unconfirmed reports say.
The missiles, which can carry ten nuclear warheads up to 8,700 miles, have reportedly been moved to Heilongjiang province in north-east China.
A leading English language newspaper in the communist country carried an editorial urging the country to strengthen its nuclear arsenal to ‘"force" the US to respect China in the wake of the new President’s tough talk.
The Global Times – which is state controlled like all Chinese media and used to road-test public opinion -- this week called on the Government to boost its nuclear arsenal.
The editorial said: “Before Trump took power, his team showed a tough stance toward China, and in turn, Beijing will ready itself for pressures imposed by the new US Government.”
And it added: “China bears the heavy task of safeguarding national security. Nuclear deterrence is the foundation of China's national security, which must be consolidated with the rising strategic risks.”
It said nuclear weapons must be at the cornerstone of Chinese deterrent.
The call is in stark contrast to a speech given by Xi Jinping to the United Nations just days earlier, where he called for nuclear weapons to be “prohibited and destroyed over time”.
Chinese social media has carried pictures claiming to show an advanced intercontinental ballistic missile system, Dongfeng-41 in the north-east.
The Global Times suggested the People’s Liberation Army could have leaked the photos on social media as a warning to Mr Trump.
The President, who has been in office for less than a week, has ruffled Chinese feathers with talk on trade and national security.
In one of the campaign debates with Hillary Clinton, he blamed China for stealing US jobs from Americans, for devaluing the dollar and for engaging in state-sponsored cyberhacking.
Mr Trump said: “Look at what China is doing to our country. They are using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China.”
He also said on Twitter back in 2012 that global warming was “a hoax perpetuated by the Chinese” – but has since said that was meant in jest.
Before he took office, Mr Trump accused China of flexing its muscles in the disputed territory of the South China Sea.
Mr Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, said last week China's access to the islands it has built there must be blocked.
The US does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign nation, but in December Mr Trump became the first US President since Jimmy Carter in 1979 to speak on the telephone to Taiwan’s leader, President Tsai Ing-wen.
Relations between the two countries have generally been stable but with some periods of conflict – most notably in the Vietnam and Korean Wars.
Mr Trump has urged China to use its influence to rein in North Korea, which has conducted at least two tests of nuclear weapons in the last year.

China reportedly deploys ICBMs near Russia’s border

RT

A military vehicle carrying a DongFeng long-range ballistic missile.
Beijing has deployed advanced Dongfeng-41 ICBMs in Heilongjiang Province, which borders Russia, according to reports based on images, possibly leaked to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president.
“Pictures of China's Dongfeng-41 ballistic missile were exposed on Chinese mainland websites,” the Global Times said citing reports in “some Hong Kong and Taiwan media.”

Russian news agencies identified one of them as the Apple Daily, a Hong Kong-based tabloid-style resource.
“It was revealed that the pictures were taken in Heilongjiang Province. Military analysts believe that this is perhaps the second Dongfeng-41 strategic missile brigade and it should be deployed in northeastern China,” the report in the Chinese daily adds. 

The Global Times works under the auspices of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, though the former tends to be more controversial.
The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-propellant missile, which is estimated to have a range of up to 15,000km and be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed nuclear warheads. 

China is yet to show the ICBM to the general public during a military parade or any similar event. Most information of the advanced weapon remains highly classified.
There is speculation that China plans to deploy at least three brigades of DF-41s throughout the country. 

The image leak may have been timed with Trump’s inauguration, with the new president expected to take a confrontational stance towards China, according to the Global Times’ report.
Before taking office he angered Beijing by threatening to end the ‘One China policy’, which acknowledges continental China as the only Chinese nation and rejects Taiwan’s claim to be one. 

He also said he would pressure Beijing on economic issues like its monetary policy and trade barriers.
China routinely uses demonstration of its military prowess to send signals to challengers like the US. For instance, it tested a railcar-launched version of the DF-41 in December 2016 just as then-Defense Secretary Ashton Carter visited the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis deployed in the South China Sea.
The alleged deployment of the DF-41 near Russia’s border should not be read as a threat to Russia, military analyst Konstantin Sivkov told RIA Novosti.
“DF-41 missiles placed near Russia’s border are a smaller threat than if they were placed deeper in the Chinese territory. Such missiles usually have a very large ‘dead zone’ [area within minimal range that cannot be attacked by a weapon],” he said, adding that the ICBMs would not be able to target Russia’s Far East and most of Eastern Siberia from the Heilongjiang Province.
The Kremlin agreed with the assessment, saying that China is Russia’s “strategic partner in political and economic senses.”
“Certainly, the actions of the Chinese military, if the reports prove correct, the military build-up in China is not perceived as a threat to our country,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Target: Beijing

India successfully tested a nuclear-capable ICBM that can reach Beijing
By Joshua Berlinger

The Agni-V is displayed during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi on January 26, 2013.
Hong Kong -- It's a frightening prospect, India and China going to war.
The countries are home to 2.5 billion people, a long and sometimes disputed border -- which they've fought wars over -- and each have nuclear weapons.
And India announced last month it successfully tested the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which could deliver a nuke to Beijing.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted the accomplishment "makes every Indian proud."
But some in China see the test as a provocation. 

And provocations can make the region less stable, which can lead to hostilities, says Victor Gao, the director of the China National Association of International Studies.
An Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman responded by telling CNN that its "strategic capabilities are not targeted against any particular country," and that the country abides by its international obligations.
But not everyone shares such a sanguine view of the Sino-Indian relationship.
"Everyone should be interested in and concerned about India's successful ICBM test, inc(luding) China because it's within range of this new missile and because it especially of the major Asian countries understands the dangers of nationalism and its volatility," says Yvonne Chiu, a professor of at Hong Kong University.

'Precisely ambiguous'
India and China both maintain what's called a "no first use" policy as part of their nuclear doctrine.
The policy means exactly what it sounds like -- in the event of a war, the country won't use nuclear weapons unless they're attacked by an enemy using nuclear weapons.
But India's nationalist defense minister, Manohar Parrikar, publicly mused in November whether India should be bound by the "no first use" policy.
"If a written down policy exists, or you take a stand on a nuclear aspect, I think you are truly giving away your strength in nuclear," Parrikar said. 

"Why should I bind myself? I should say I'm a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it irresponsibly."
It's important to note that Parrikar said those were his personal opinions, and that India's nuclear doctrine was not changing.
And he made those comments in November, after tensions with Pakistan were on the rise due to unrest in Kashmir.

Kashmir: A bitter dispute

But Parrikar isn't the only one in India questioning the "no first use" doctrine.
"Nuclear deterrence is a curious thing -- it succeeds when it creates doubts in the mind of the adversary state, and doubt is created in the nuclear realm by being precisely ambiguous about your intentions, your capabilities and about the possibilities of its use," said Bharat Karnad​,​ a professor of national security studies at the Indian Centre for Policy Research.
"We are far too certain about our retaliatory strike certainties. It's not the kind of certainty you'd like your adversaries to believe, primarily because it undermines your own deterrent posture."
It could be all smoke and mirrors -- what better way to publicly sow doubt about your intentions than to publicly muse about changing them, but in private, stay committed to "no first use."​
But any ambiguity doesn't look great from China's position.
What would you do if southern neighbor, which you fought a war against in the 1970s, starts beating nationalist drums and gives mixed messages on whether or not they'll fire a nuke first in a war?

Keeping enemies closer?
Indian Prime Minister Modi has made rapprochement a staple of his China policy since he took office.
Modi and Xi Jinping met early at the start of the Indian leader's premiership in 2014. 

The two sides spoke glowingly of what the countries could accomplish by working together.
Gao, who was Deng Xiapoing's translator, believes Modi has done a good job engaging with China.
But just because trade and diplomatic ties are strengthened doesn't preclude India from trying to catch up to China militarily.
"There are long-standing tensions and ongoing disputes between the two countries, and one possible path to better relations is to come at it from a position of relative strength, particularly if the increased strength in question is both a genuine threat (nuclear capability)," Chiu, the professor at HKU, told CNN in an email.


The elephant in the room
Pakistan is the big wild card.
The country, which boasts its own nuclear arsenal, is India's historic adversary and considered an "all-weather" friend of China.
Those relationships form a double-edged sword, analysts say.
On the one hand, it offers India an excuse for building up its missile systems that doesn't involve China, so "both sides can continue relations without the sense one of them has suddenly been put under undue pressure," Chiu says.

Tensions flare between nuclear neighbors
But it's not clear if China is buying that argument.
Patrick Bratton, an associate professor of national security strategy at the US Army War College, says that contrary to popular beliefs, China, not Pakistan, was the original focus of the Indian nuclear weapons program.
And Pakistan was already in range of India's nuclear-capable missiles before the Agni-V was developed.
The other big concern is that Pakistan sees the Agni-V development as proof it's falling behind in an arms race.
"There are multiple audiences for this missile test and multiple possible targets, and I think India's increased capability will ultimately be more of a concern for Pakistan, since it does not yet have a missile with that range of capacity," says Chiu.
So by trying to level the playing field with China in terms of nuclear deterrence, India could in effect have spurred Pakistan into the arms race.
"That's both the logic and illogic of nuclear deterrence," Chiu says.

Many analysts don't believe the countries would go to war for a host of reasons, the biggest being that both sides are acutely aware of how destructive it could be.
As far as we know, India does not currently keep its warheads and delivery systems -- the missiles and rockets that would be used to launch a nuke at an adversary -- in the same location, ready to use at a moment's notice, Bratton said in an email to CNN.
And though the December missile test of the Agni-V was the fourth successful one, it was only the second time the projectile was launched from a canister.
That likely means India will need to conduct more tests, meaning it could be years before the system is deployed and operational, Bratton said.
"India has been working on developing this capability for a number of decades and it's no surprise for China," he said. 

"This should not be seen as a radical departure in Sino-Indian relations."

Beijing has fallen?