The Necessary War

Xi Jinping has entire military drilling in case US strikes North Korea
By KATSUJI NAKAZAWA

China's entire military was mobilized for a large scale exercise on Jan. 3.

TOKYO -- "Do not fear death," Xi Jinping told the more than 7,000 troops of the People's Liberation Army gathered at a military training base in Hebei Province on Jan. 3.
It was a freezing day and Xi appeared clad in thick military clothing.
The "Grand Mobilization Ceremony," as the meeting was called, was a first-of-its-kind event involving the entire Chinese military, with the Army, Navy, Air Force and Rocket Force taking part. Live streaming of the speech was delivered to more than 4,000 locations, where parallel sessions were held simultaneously across China. 

The atmosphere was tense.
Xi, who also serves as the chairman of the Central Military Commission as well as the Communist Party's general secretary, told Chinese troops to be locked and loaded.
The colossal event left no doubt that despite the warming of relations between North and South Korea, with representatives meeting for the first time in more than two years on Jan. 9, Xi has eyes on the worst case scenario.
If North Korea does not abandon its nuclear program, the U.S. will probably move faster than later. "That day could come after the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea," one source said. The closing ceremony is scheduled for Feb. 25.

Xi Jinping, center, inspects troops on Jan. 3 after ordering China's entire military to carry out mobilization exercises. 
Approaching by sea
China has been dead set against any country using military force against North Korea. 

But if U.S. President Donald Trump decides on this option, there will be no stopping him.
China, therefore, needs to be prepared for any contingency, including a "decapitation strike" on the North Korean leadership, or blitzkrieg tactics aimed at paralyzing North Korea's military.
A direct clash between China and the U.S. would be avoided at all costs. 

Xi knows the PLA would never be able to win such a battle. 

But if U.S. forces were to invade North Korea, China would have no choice but to use its own troops to secure its interests.
In this contingency, many observers believe China would send troops into the conflict from northeastern China, across the Yalu River, which forms the Sino-North Korea border. 

After all, this is exactly what China did during the Korean War.
But this would be a rather non-expeditious route to Pyongyang, in the central part of the country and far from the Yalu.
China may turn to history books to solve this issue.

When the Korean War broke out in 1950, North Korean troops immediately gained the upper hand driving the U.S.-led United Nations forces all the way back to Busan, in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula.
After regrouping, the U.N. forces made a surprise landing at the strategic port of Incheon, on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula, under Supreme Commander Douglas MacArthur.
MacArthur carried out the risky landing despite numerous objections. 

The operation was a big success as the U.N. forces recaptured Seoul, the South Korean capital. Today, Incheon is one of Asia's most important transportation hubs, as home to South Korea's main international airport.
Now, China could take a similar route to the one MacArthur chose 68 years ago.
Pyongyang is just inland from North Korea's west coast. 

Even if Chinese troops do not engage their U.S. counterparts, they would be able to establish a foothold near the North Korean capital.
If Xi were to turn the pages of the history book further back, he would find many examples of China attempting to land on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula.
Emperor Yang (569 - 618) of the Sui dynasty sent troops there to fight the forces of the powerful kingdom of Koguryo, or Goguryeo, which ruled the northern part of the Korean Peninsula.
Sui's offensive against Koguryo's ancient capital Pyongyang was two-pronged. 

The main military units crossed the Yalu River. 

Meanwhile, naval units sailed from the Shandong Peninsula to the west coast of the Korean Peninsula.
The Tang dynasty, which succeeded the Sui dynasty in 618, also faced off against Koguryo. 

Like the Sui dynasty, the Tang dynasty sent invasion forces by sea as well as by land.
Tang dynasty troops left Laizhou, on the Shandong Peninsula, now Yantai, in Shandong Province, crossed the Yellow Sea and landed on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. 

Koguryo finally collapsed in 668.

Members of the People's Liberation Army Marine Corps are seen in training at a military training base in Bayingol, East Turkestan.

China's marine corps
In modern warfare, it is the marines that handle sea crossings. 

Should the U.S. invade North Korea, China could reach areas near Pyongyang swiftly if it used its marine corps. 

The Chinese marines -- who have copied many elements of the U.S. Marine Corps -- and their amphibious vehicles would be delivered by landing craft.
Interestingly, on the night of the mobilization ceremony, Jan. 3, the state-run China Central Television's news program turned its focus on one aspect of the military: the treasured marine corps.
Xi's speech also touched upon the marines.
The marine corps is based in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, far from the Korean Peninsula. 

But the marines actually hold training exercises on the Shandong Peninsula, across the Yellow Sea from the Korean Peninsula.
A major naval hub in China, the Shandong Peninsula is home to the Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier. 

In early December, the marine corps was engaged in training exercises at multiple military ports on the Shandong Peninsula. 

The drills had to do with carrying military equipment by ship, according to official Chinese media reports, including one by China Military Online, the military's official news website.
If China were to send troops from both land and sea, the two troops would have different missions.
Those ground troops crossing the Yalu River would head straight down to Punggye-ri, some 100km from the border, where they would take control of the nuclear test site.
North Korea's main military facilities are near the Chinese border, where they are less likely to come under attack from the U.S. 

American forces, after all, would likely hesitate to launch air strikes that might affect the Chinese side of the border and trigger a Sino-U.S. war.
If U.S. surgical air strikes on targets in North Korea fail, the Americans and North Koreans could get bogged down in a war, and the Chinese military would have no choice but to move, albeit in the name of preventing an influx of North Korean refugees.
In a move that apparently reflects Xi's judgment, the Jilin Daily, a Communist Party newspaper in Jilin Province, on the border with North Korea, in early December published an unusual feature warning readers to prepare for a possible nuclear war.
Preparations are now being made in Jilin and Liaoning, another northeastern Chinese province that borders North Korea, as well as on the Shandong Peninsula in case war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.

U.S. nuclear button is "much bigger" 
Trump, Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are now engaged in psychological warfare.

Kim Jong Un makes a statement from his desk in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on September 22, 2017. 

Kim, in a New Year's Day address, threatened the U.S. by saying that "a nuclear button is always on my desk," while signaling a conciliatory approach to South Korea. 

North Korea will send athletes to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.
Trump responded by tweeting that his nuclear button is "much bigger and more powerful." 

Several days later, however, the U.S. president expressed a willingness to talk to Kim by telephone -- if certain conditions are met.
For Xi, who just managed to solidify his power at the Communist Party's 19th national congress last October, it is a new set of worries. 

The war of words between the U.S. and North Korean leaders are no laughing matter.
It looks to be an interesting year for Asia.

World War III Casualties
	2016 Population	Killed		Survivors
CHINA	1 373 541 278	1 057 119 689	77%	316 421 589
UNITED STATES	323 995 528	19 089 783	6%	304 905 745
EUROPEAN UNION	513 949 445	371 356 958	72%	142 592 487
RUSSIA	142 355 415	30 924 816	22%	111 430 599
INDIA	1 266 883 598	1 158 499 174	91%	108 384 424
PAKISTAN	201 995 540	175 747 473	87%	26 248 067
JAPAN	126 702 133	114 241 889	90%	12 460 244
VIETNAM	95 261 021	84 340 688	89%	10 920 333
PHILIPPINES	102 624 209	92 732 902	90%	9 891 307
KOREA, NORTH	25 115 311	21 141 050	84%	3 974 261
KOREA, SOUTH	50 924 172	47 636 302	94%	3 287 870
TAIWAN	23 464 787	22 278 490	95%	1 186 297
	4 246 812 437	3 195 109 214	75%	1 051 703 223

Trump's Mongolism Syndrome

How a single Trump sentence enraged South Korea
By Kim Tong-Hyung 

SEOUL, South Korea —  Donald Trump’s apparently offhand comment after meeting with Xi Jinping — that “Korea actually used to be a part of China” — has enraged many South Koreans.
The historically inaccurate sentence from a Wall Street Journal interview bumps up against a raft of historical and political sensitivities in a country where many have long feared Chinese designs on the Korean Peninsula. 

It also feeds neatly into longstanding worries about Seoul’s shrinking role in dealing with its nuclear-armed rival, North Korea.
Ahn Hong-seok, a 22-year-old college student, said that if Trump “is a person capable of becoming a president, I think he should not distort the precious history of another country.”
Many here assume that Xi fed that ahistorical nugget to Trump, who also admitted that after 10 minutes listening to Xi, he realized that Beijing’s influence over North Korea was much less than he had thought.
Here’s why Trump’s comments strike a nerve in South Korea:

WRONG, BUT WHOSE MISTAKE?
It’s unclear whether Trump was quoting Xi or had misunderstood what he was told when he said Korea had been part of China.
It never was, historians outside of China say, although some ancient and medieval kingdoms that occupied the Korean Peninsula offered tributes to Chinese kingdoms to secure protection. 

And for a period during the 13th century, both China and Korea were under the rule of the Mongolian empire.
“Throughout the thousands of years of relations, Korea has never been part of China, and this is a historical fact that is recognized internationally and something no one can deny,” Cho June-hyuck, a South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Thursday.

HISTORICAL FEUD
Trump stumbled into a long history dispute between the Asian neighbors; specifically, their views over the dominion of ancient kingdoms whose territories stretched from the Korean Peninsula to Manchuria.
South Koreans see these kingdoms as Korean, but China began to claim them as part of its national history in the early 1980s.
At the time, China’s state historians were exploring ways to ideologically support Beijing’s policies governing ethnic minorities, including the large communities of ethnic Koreans in the northeast, experts say.
In the early 2000s, a Chinese government-backed academic project produced a slew of studies arguing that the kingdom of Goguryeo (37 B.C.-A.D. 668) was a Chinese state. 

This infuriated South Korea, where nationalists glorify Goguryeo for its militarism and territorial expansion. 

Seoul launched its own government-backed research project on Goguryeo in 2007.
Some analysts say the argument is more political than historical as Goguryeo existed more than a thousand years before the foundation of modern states in Korea and China.

‘KOREA PASSING’
Several South Korean newspapers mentioned the Chinese claims over Goguryeo as they lashed out at Trump over the comments, and at Xi for feeding Trump Chinese-centric views.
Chosun Ilbo, South Korea’s largest newspaper, said China was looking to “tame” South Korea and weaken the traditional alliance between Seoul and Washington in an attempt to expand its regional influence.
Seoul has long worried about losing its voice in international efforts to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat — something local media have termed “Korea Passing.” 

Seoul and Beijing are also bickering over plans to deploy in South Korea an advanced U.S. missile defense system that China sees as a security threat.
In the meantime, Trump has reportedly settled on a “maximum pressure and engagement” strategy on North Korea, which is mainly about enlisting the help of Beijing to put pressure on Pyongyang.
“It’s highly possible that China will try to solve the problems surrounding the Korean Peninsula based on a hegemonic stance that likens the Koreas to Chinese vassal states,” said the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper on Thursday. 

“If Trump has agreed with this view, you will never know what kind of a deal the two global powers will make over the fate of the Korean Peninsula.”
Insecurities about both China’s and Trump’s intentions in the region will be among the big issues as South Koreans vote next month for their next president.