US–China Non-Aggression Pact

Trump follows Nixon to China
by W. James Antle III 

Only Richard Nixon could go to China, but Trump may follow in his footsteps.
In the past week, the administration has softened its rhetoric about China while taking a noticeably harder line against Russia.
The Trump Treasury Department declined to label China a currency manipulator on Friday, although the country was one of six major trading partners placed on a "monitoring list." 

"They're not currency manipulators" is a sentence that came out of the president's own mouth earlier in the week.
On Russia, however, Trump is pulling a Nixon-to-China transformation in reverse. 

"Right now, we're not getting along with Russia at all," the president said Wednesday. 

"We may be at an all-time low in terms of a relationship with Russia. This has built for a long period of time."
At the same press conference, Trump spoke almost warmly of China's political leaders.
"President Xi wants to do the right thing," he said. 

"We had a very good bonding. I think we had a very good chemistry together."
In both cases, Trump is departing from his campaign rhetoric. 

He regularly denounced China's allegedly predatory trade and currency valuation practices on the stump while he frequently declined to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

After winning the presidential election, Trump was slow to embrace the intelligence community's conclusion that Russian hacking occurred during the 2016 campaign.
This transformation seemed complete when China abstained on the United Nations Security Council rather than siding with Russia in seeking to thwart a UN resolution condemning Syria for using chemical weapons, an act that triggered a U.S. military response ordered by Trump.
"I think it's wonderful that they abstained. As you know, very few people expected that," Trump said while standing next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House. 

"We are honored by the vote. That's the vote that should have taken place."+

Trump still says he hasn't given up hope he can improve relations with Russia. 

"It would be wonderful, as we were discussing just a little while ago, if NATO and our country could get along with Russia."

"And I'll also see about Putin over a period of time," Trump added later. 

"It would be a fantastic thing if we got along with Putin and if we got along with Russia. And that could happen, and it may not happen, it may be just the opposite."
Nixon, a fervent anti-communist, used his opening with China against the Soviet Union. 

Few see any similar connection here, other than that Trump has allowed his advisers to be much tougher on Russia out of the gate than ever seemed likely during the campaign.
"One way to read events is that Trump hoped that he could shift Putin toward a more pro-U.S. position," writes Walter Russel Mead. 

"The Bannonite dream of a Christian coalition against Islam may have been a factor, but Trump seemed to hope that he could dramatically simplify America's complex Middle East dilemmas by peeling Russia away from Assad and Iran."
A Republican diplomat recalled watching past officials like Secretaries of State Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice in their negotiations with difficult foreign governments.
"We Americans like to sit across the table and make moral arguments to the other side," the diplomat said. 

"We say things like 'You should do this because it's what the international community wants,' or 'It's the right thing,' or 'We need you do this.'"
"The Russians don't give a shit about any of that," the source concluded, adding that moral suasion was not always an effective tool in dealing with China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia or increasingly even NATO ally Turkey.
According to this view, Trump's flexibility and willingness to talk about interests rather than values (although he has made moral arguments against the behavior of the Syrian government) are assets.
Trump can say he wants a better relationship with Putin's Russia, but can also demonstrate he is willing for relations to remain hostile.
None of this will endear Trump to Democrats — and a non-trivial number of Republicans — who view the president's interest in Russia with suspicion and believe the probe of Russian interference in U.S. presidential election will ultimately reveal unsavory ties.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is already trying to outflank Trump on China and thereby win back some of the working-class voters they lost to the president's populist appeals last year.
"We are urging him to get tough on China," Schumer told reporters Tuesday. 

"If he does, he'll find a willing and eager partner in Democrats."
Plenty of national security observers worry that there is no grand Art of the Deal strategy behind Trump's recent maneuvers and that the new president is simply winging it on the world stage.

Analysts See Trump Comments on One China as Part of Bigger Game

By William Ide and Joyce Huang

Combination of three 2016 file photos showing Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, left, U.S. President Donald Trump, center, and Xi Jinping.

BEIJING — President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States doesn’t necessarily need to be bound by a “One China” policy, which was key to the establishment of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing, has the Chinese leadership on edge and some wondering whether a rethink is on the horizon regarding relations with Taiwan.
Analysts say a Trump presidency could see ties with democratically ruled Taiwan enhanced, but doubt there will be a serious departure from the policy, noting the wide range of areas where the world’s two biggest economies cooperate and how much they need each other. 

What it does suggest, they say, is that a bigger game is afoot.
Trump told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday: “I don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.”

One China rethink
When the United States established ties with China in 1979, it cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan, recognizing the communist-led People’s Republic of China as the sole government of China, or “one China.”

President Nixon sits between Chinese Premier Chou En-lai and Chiang Ching, wife of Chairman Mao Tse-tung, at a cultural show in the Great Hall of the People, Feb. 22, 1972 in Peking as an interlude in the talks between the two countries leaders.
From Beijing’s perspective, “One China” means Taiwan is part of its own territory.
The United States acknowledges that position, but also maintains close cultural and commercial ties with Taipei. 

It also supplies Taiwan with military hardware and some have long felt that ties should be enhanced.
Trump’s recent phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, a first by any president since Washington switched ties to Beijing, and now remarks about the “One China” policy — which has been a centerpiece of relations for decades -- has some feeling that just might happen.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump through a speaker phone in Taipei, Taiwan. 

“I don’t think that he will overturn the ‘One China’ policy completely, and only recognize Taiwan and not the People’s Republic of China, but it is possible that he will elevate relations with Taiwan,” said Zhang Lifan, a Chinese historian and commentator in Beijing.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political scientist at Hong Kong Baptist University, said there are those in the United States who would like to make relations with Taiwan more transparent and more like “state to state relations.”
“Of course the Chinese will not be happy, but I think it is a way of telling the Chinese, the ‘One China’ policy that the Chinese adhere shouldn’t be taken for granted,” he said. 

“There are a number of things that were decided for convenience in the 1970s and in the 80s, which may be revisited today because the reality on the ground is very different.”
The United States and China established ties at a time when both Taipei and Beijing were under authoritarian rule. 

Since then, however, Taiwan has become one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. 

And the political paths of both are diverging, not converging.
A man rides a scooter near containers at Keelung port, northern Taiwan, Oct. 30, 2015.
Still, just how many politicians in the United States might support a complete overhaul is unclear, Cabestan adds, as the policy has long enjoyed bipartisan support.
Tseng Chien-yuan, an associate professor at Chung Hua University in Taiwan, said it seems that Trump is treating the “One China” policy more like a political bargaining chip.
"I think he [Trump] will have to adjust his policies in accordance with China's reactions and look after the U.S.'s best interest,” Tseng said.

No good option
Zhang said that when Trump spoke with Taiwan’s president it was like he was starting to take bets, but now with his remarks about “one China” and trade, he has clearly put his cards on the table.
Trump’s comments have sparked a strong backlash from Beijing, with the foreign ministry voicing its “serious concern” and state media suggesting that if he did dump the policy as president, China could sell weapons to “forces hostile to the U.S.” 

The remarks have also whipped up concern from foreign affairs "experts" in the United States and abroad because Beijing sees the policy as the “political bedrock of Sino-U.S.” relations.
Zhang calls the move very strategic.
Terry Branstad, the governor of Iowa, speaks to reporters at Trump Tower after a meeting with Donald Trump. Branstad would later be named the United States ambassador to China. 

“He is not president yet and speaking as president-elect he can say what he wants,” Zhang said. Making the comments now gives China some time to be angry and to contemplate its options as well as the costs associated with its choices.
China has never renounced the use of force to take Taiwan and fulfill its claim that the self-ruled island is part of its territory, but Zhang said there are few good options for China’s communist leaders.
"If war should break out in the Taiwan Strait, there will be two consequences. 

One consequence is that the Chinese Communist Party wins a unified country,” but isolates itself from the world because of the conflict. 

“And two is that it is defeated and a new China is born,” one that is no longer ruled by the communist party.

Paramilitary policemen march at the Tiananmen Sqaure before the fourth plenary meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 14, 2013.
Analysts note that while there may be a tendency from military and party hardliners in China to call for a tough response, Chinese officials and state media have so far focused more on the economic measures China could use in response and a refusal to cooperate on a wide-range of issues from Iran to North Korea.
Regardless of whether it is Washington or Beijing, in a globalized world and economy, there are few options that don’t cut both ways.
Taiwan is also watching all of this closely to make sure its interests are looked after. 

There are concerns in Taiwan that Trump’s approach could do more harm than good. 

But that really depends on how it all plays out, said Chung Hua University’s Tseng.
“If closer economic cooperation between the U.S. and Taiwan can be forged, a Trump presidency will help Taiwan break away from China’s military and economic containment,” Tseng said.

Nixon in reverse
Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972 spearheaded the beginning of what led to the switch in ties from Taiwan to China. 

At the time, one key reason for establishing relations with Beijing, analysts note, was to counter Russia. 

Now that may be happening again, but in reverse.
Mao Zedong shake hands with Richard Nixon after their meeting in Beijing 22 February 1972 during the U.S. President's official visit in China.

“The Trump administration is trying to start with China as a way of maybe putting more pressure on China, isolate China from more countries, from key partners like Russia, bringing back Russia,” said Hong Kong Baptist University’s Cabestan.
He added that while there are many uncertainties, what is clear is that Trump is prepared to play hardball with China on both trade and strategic issues.
“There is a whole game at play here, which is unfolding,” he said.
On the campaign trail, president Trump sent clear signals that he wants to improve ties with Russia. On Tuesday, he appointed ExxonMobil Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson as his Secretary of State. 

Tillerson is friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation at their meeting in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Monday, April 16, 2012.