US And Australia Try To Tame China's South China Sea Ambitions, As Duterte Gives Up

By Panos Mourdoukoutas

America and Australia are working hard to tame China’s ambition to turn the South China Sea into its own sea, as the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is giving up.
Specifically, the two countries are teaming up to develop the Lombrum naval base on Manus Island.
That’s according to a story published last weekend in The Guardian.

The base is part of an effort by the two countries to keep an important passage to the South China Sea open.
Last September, the two countries performed join naval exercises in the region, though Australian vessels avoided disputed areas.
A growing conflict between China on the one side and America on the other over who will write the navigation rules for the South China Sea raise geopolitical risks for the global economy. 

And it adds to investor anxieties over the fate of the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region.

The recent move by America and Australia came as Asian leaders gathered in Papua New Guinea to address ways to advance cooperation in the world’s most populated region.

“The US move is not a surprise,” says Washington-based global strategist, Jeffrey Borda. 

”There is Chinese military interest in Vanuatu. ASEAN lacks a cohesive vision. The US needs a southern passage to the South China Sea.”
But a naval base may not be sufficient to counter China’s strategy to control the southern waterway leading to the South China Sea.
“If the US wants to contain Chinese expansion, defense posture is only one side of the equation,” adds Borda. 

 “China's strategy is long term and equally focused on using investment and trade as a tool of power projection.”
While America and Australia are trying to counter China’s South China Sea ambitions, Rodrigo Duterte is giving up, admitting that the body of water is already China’s own sea and calling on “America and everybody else to realize it.”
That’s according to a report published in Strait Times on November 15, where Duterte was quoted as saying that China was "already in possession" of the South China Sea and went on criticizing naval exercises by America and its allies. 

"China is there. That's a reality, and America and everybody should realize that they are there."
Apparently, Rodrigo Duterte is concerned that his country may caught in the middle of an open military confrontation between China and the U.S.
But he doesn’t seem to have made his mind up concerning who’s the friend and who’s the enemy in the South China Sea disputes. 

He is looking for friends in Beijing one day and in Washington the next, and leaving foreign investors confused on the direction in which his country—and its economy—is heading.
Duterte’s flip-flops on South China Sea disputes can be traced back to July 2016 after an international arbitration ruling, which determined that China has no historic title over the waters.
One month later, Duterte asked China to stay away from our territory or else face the possibility of a “bloody” confrontation. 

That was followed by the Duterte decision to side with the Philippines’ “friend,” China in the dispute, and seek a “divorce” from the U.S.
Apparently, Beijing had offered Manila something Washington couldn’t: the promise of peace and a partnership for prosperity on its own terms.
But making promises in high stake disputes is one thing, keeping them is another.
Only time will tell for sure whether Duterte’s flip-flops save the peace. 

Meanwhile, they won’t help America’s and Australia’s efforts to tame China’s ambitions.

Rogue Nation

China hoped for a sharp power win at APEC, instead Xi Jinping left dissatisfied
By John Lee

With the presidents of the United States and Russia staying home, it seemed Chinese dictator Xi Jinping would dominate this weekend at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and increase his country's influence in the Pacific.
China has already lent at least $1.3 billion to the Pacific Islands and about $590 million alone to the summit's host, Papua New Guinea (PNG). 

And to coincide with the PNG visit, Beijing promised $4 billion of finance to build PNG's first national road network, one of several gestures for which China secured effusive praise from Pacific Island countries including Samoa, Vanuatu, the Cook Islands, Tonga, Niue, Fiji and the President of the Federated States of Micronesia.
But nevertheless, Xi left PNG dissatisfied and disgruntled.
Xi Jinping says no one wins in 'cold war,' but Pence won't back down

For the first time in APEC's 25-year history, PNG was forced to end the summit with leaders failing to agree on a communique. 

And Beijing was also left embarrassed by reports of four Chinese officials being unceremoniously banished from the office of PNG Foreign Minister Rimbink Pato after trying to influence his statement.
For China, the trade summit should have been a public relations victory -- but it was turned into partial defeat when Chinese officials barred most reporters from participant countries and other international outlets from the forum and instead only allowed Chinese state-owned media journalists, citing space and security concerns according to Reuters.

Concerted and coordinated push back by the US and its allies
Of more enduring consequence than diplomatic embarrassment, is the concerted and coordinated push back by the US and its allies -- such as Japan and Australia -- which was done in a very public way. 

Earlier this month, Australia announced a $2.2 billion "step-up to the Pacific" -- which includes an Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility and an export credit agency to help Australian companies invest in the region.
Then on Saturday, the Trilateral Partnership countries of the US, Japan and Australia released a joint statement declaring together they would identify infrastructure projects for development and financing. 

Pointedly, these projects would adhere to "international standards and principles for development, including openness, transparency, and fiscal sustainability." 

That approach, it said, would "help to meet the region's genuine needs while avoiding unsustainable debt burdens for the nations of the region."
US Vice President Mike Pence was even more blunt during his speech at the APEC summit.

Taking a swipe at China, he said that the US "offers a better option" and "does not drown partners in a sea of debt... coerce" them or "compromise" their independence.
To indicate that the US and allied powers were serious about using economic and military means to counter Chinese influence, Pence announced over the weekend the US will join with Australia and PNG to redevelop and create a joint naval base on Manus Island. 

"We will work with these two nations to protect sovereignty and maritime rights in the Pacific Islands," he said.

Public distaste for 'sharp power' on show
Previously, in August, it was reported that China could be given the contract to redevelop a port on Manus Island. 

A military facility on Manus Island is of high strategic significance -- this is a deep-water port capable of hosting aircraft carriers and hundreds of naval vessels.
As one of the most important bases for the US fleet in the Pacific theater during World War II, it will be a second line of defence should China's People's Liberation Army Navy successfully break out of the so-called First Island Chain, a line of archipelagos that cover the Kuril Islands, Japan, Taiwan, northern Philippines and Borneo, and the Malay Peninsula.
But even if the reports about Chinese involvement in the Manus Island port are untrue, Beijing would be alarmed at the prospect of American and Australian military assets in PNG to counter any Chinese naval breakout.

As far as Beijing is concerned, the weekend was the time to showcase China's emergence as a benign superpower in the South Pacific. 

Instead, public distaste for and rebuke of its 'sharp power' was on show.
Xi defended China's trade practices and denied that its Belt and Road Initiative contained hidden geo-political and other sinister motivations. 

And no matter how adamantly he did so, it was not a conversation that Xi intended to have when he first landed in Port Moresby.
And it has not ended.
The more China offers economic largesse and inducements, the more it will need to reassure the recipient and the world that it is not laying a 'debt trap' or seeking to buy influence.
The weekend was supposed to be China's moment in the sun during this most important regional economic meeting. 

Instead, it became obvious to all that Beijing's ambitions are as feared and resisted by at least as many countries, as welcomed by others.