Chinese military outpost in Vanuatu a ‘massive nightmare’ for Australia, experts warn

China’s latest move in our region confirms the biggest fear Australian strategic thinkers have held since 1901

By Gavin Fernando

DEFENCE experts have warned that China’s latest flagged move in the South Pacific presents a “massive nightmare” for Australia.
Fears have mounted following reports Beijing is seeking to establish a permanent military base in Vanuatu, less than 2000km from the Australian border.
Initial talks have already begun with Vanuatu, which could see Beijing establishing a major military presence and upsetting the strategic balance of the region, Fairfax Media reported today.
Experts warn this will essentially see a Chinese military outpost planted directly in Australia’s backyard.
Adam Lockyer, a senior lecturer in Security Studies at Macquarie University, stressed that this is a huge deal for us.
“This is a big nightmare for Australia,” he told news.com.au. 

“A Chinese base here has been the primary fear of Australian strategic thinkers since Federation.”
So what’s China playing at?
Dr Lockyer said Australia had always been relatively safe as long as a great power — like China — didn’t have a base within proximity.
Since the end of World War II, we’ve fought to ensure no other power could interfere with us from the South Pacific region.
He explained that there’s a strategic military purpose to building a nearby base, in that you don’t need to defeat an entire army; you only need to defeat a small faction of the army that can be projected in one wave.
“As soon as you have that, Australia is vulnerable to military attacks and skyrockets,” he warned. 

“Canberra will be panicking if these reports are true. This is really going to shake the cage.”

Julie Bishop has downplayed the fears, saying she is confident of our relationship with Vanuatu.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop downplayed fears this morning, saying she was confident of Australia’s strong relationship with the island nation 1750km east of Northern Australia.
She also noted that China has only established one military base — in Djibouti in northern Africa.
“I’m not aware of a military offer being made by China to Vanuatu,” she told ABC radio today.
She also noted that Vanuatu’s high commissioner in Canberra, Kalfau Kaloris, said his country’s foreign ministry was “not aware” of China’s plan to build a permanent presence on the island.
“We have very good relationships with Vanuatu and I remain confident that Australia is Vanuatu’s strategic partner of choice.”

China is building military bases on the contested Spratly Islands.

Dr Lockyer also stressed this isn’t necessarily an active attack against Australia, and more a move to combat American influence in the region.
But it does send a clear message to us.
He suggested this may serve as a retaliation to Australia’s more aggressive stance on the rising superpower in recent times.
Chinese state media has attacked Mr Turnbull on several occasions for “standing up” against foreign interference in Australian politics, and for expressing concerns over China’s territorial aims in the South China Sea.
Just last month, Beijing accused Australia of becoming “an anti-China pioneer” over the past two years, accusing Mr Turnbull of “playing the China card”.
“The country’s unhealthy political environment prompts its politicians to play the China card,” the state-run Global Times editorial said. 

“Apparently, the above cannot be altered in the short run, and will exert long-term negative effects on Sino-Australian ties.”
According to Dr Lockyer, China’s response could be a reaction to that.
“Everyone knows this Melanesian region is vital to Australia. They (China) knew this would stir us up and make us feel very vulnerable, and if we felt vulnerable we might be less assertive,” he said.
“China’s media has been threatening us for a while now, and this is really hitting us where it hurts. It’s saying, ‘We know where you’re vulnerable, we know what you value, and we can hurt you there.’”
He also said China could be “holding up Australia as an example of a state that’s been naughty” to send a message to other countries in the region.
So what’s next?
It’s yet to be seen whether China will or plans to establish other bases in the region.
Dr Lockyer said Beijing acts opportunistically, rather than actively pursuing new military bases on a day-to-day basis.
“They’re setting up a network of close relationships around the world. If a door opens, then sure, they’ll take it,” he said.
But while Canberra does have some diplomatic and economic leverage, it may not be enough to contain Beijing if these “opportunities” continue to present themselves.