The Necessary War

Chinese Troops Probe India. This Could Be China's Next War.
By Gordon G. Chang

On Friday, Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the Hamburg G-20. 

It is unclear if they discussed the most-recent border standoff between their two countries, in the Himalayas in Doklam.
The confrontation began June 16, when Indian troops stopped the Chinese from building a road in the disputed area.
Earlier, Chinese construction trucks, guarded by soldiers, had entered Doklam near the strategic “tri-junction,” where Bhutan, China, and India meet. 

The area is just north of the “chicken’s neck,” a narrow corridor of Indian territory connecting the main portion of the country to its northeast.
India and Bhutan maintain the disputed area belongs to Bhutan while China claims it as its own.
At the moment, Chinese and Indian troops are 120 meters apart, a “civil distance.”
The situation, according to the South China Morning Post, is the “most serious confrontation between the nations in over 30 years.”
Why did Beijing choose to create a provocation at this time? 

“The Chinese are making their unhappiness clear on India and America’s relationship,” said Sameer Patil of Gateway House, an Indian think tank, to the Washington Post. 

Apparently, the Chinese decided to begin road construction—in other words, start another cycle of provocation—when they learned of Modi’s visit to Washington.
Modi visited the White House on June 26, and there he bear-hugged President Trump, who had extended an especially warm welcome. 

Trump during the talks had set aside trade and immigration irritants so that he could continue Bush and Obama policy to strengthen links between the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one. 

“The relationship between India and the United States has never been stronger, has never been better,” Trump said in the Rose Garden as he accurately described ties. 

Moreover, the Chinese could not have been happy that Modi and Trump held an impromptu meeting at the G-20 on Saturday, a sign of the easy-going relationship the Indian and American leaders have developed.
Some argue the Doklam dispute will be resolved as other recent incidents have been. 

“There are institutional mechanisms between military officials as well as civilians to discuss such differences,” Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy of the National University of Singapore told the South China Morning Post. 

“My guess is that backchannel diplomacy is active already.”
My guess is that Chaturvedy is correct about the existence of discussions. 

Indian and Chinese officials always seem to talk during Chinese incursions.
Yet no solution is in sight in Bhutan. 

In fact, as Nitin Gokhale of the closely followed Bharat Shakti site tweeted Sunday, “there are no signs of de-escalation from either side.”
Moreover, there are, unlike in the past, worrying signs. 

On the Chinese side, there is a new mood of assertion. 

“I think the root cause is that the Chinese feel that their moment has arrived and that they do not need to accommodate Indian interests in any way, given the huge power differential in their favor,” says Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, has decided he has a duty to expand China, so we see aggressive moves all along the country’s periphery. 

Beijing wants Indian-controlled territory, and Chinese troops are, with regularity, penetrating deep into areas India consider to be its own.
On the Indian side, there is a new lack of tolerance for China’s belligerence. 

As the People’s Liberation Army continues to probe India, Indian policymakers realize they must hold their ground, literally and figuratively. 

“There is little appetite in India to accommodate China’s behavior,” notes Gateway House’s Patil.
Furthermore, China’s intransigence is pushing India toward the United States. 

And as India and the U.S. draw closer, Beijing sees more of a threat to its interests. 

As Tellis points out, “Chinese suspicion that India was casting its lot entirely with the United States has only intensified Beijing’s determination to be even less accommodative towards New Delhi.” China, in short, has created a self-destructive dynamic. 

That means armed conflict is becoming increasingly likely. 

Unfortunately, China’s Communist Party-controlled media is now threatening war over Doklam.
In a hawkish editorial titled “India Will Suffer Worse Losses than 1962 If It Incites Border Clash,” the Global Times, controlled by People’s Daily, made clear Beijing’s position on the sovereignty dispute. 

“The Indian military can choose to return to its territory with dignity, or be kicked out of the area by Chinese soldiers,” the nationalist tabloid threatened on Tuesday.
It is hard to see how Xi, who faces a crucial 19th Party Congress this fall, can give over Doklam to a country—and people—Chinese policymakers often view with disdain. 

Indians, who have every reason to be proud, will not surrender territory just because Beijing wants it and is willing to employ forceful tactics.
China has made a friend an adversary and is now making that adversary an enemy.