The Empire Strikes Back

Trump’s decision to repeatedly tweak Beijing’s nose was part of a calculated strategy.
By Benny Avni

You think you’re confused about President Trump? 

Imagine how they feel in Beijing.
They might’ve rejoiced this week when the new president fulfilled a campaign promise to undo the Trans Pacific Partnership. 

Obama designed the 12-country trade deal, in part, to reduce China’s economic clout.
So is Trump a China pushover? 

Former National Security Adviser Susan Rice thinks so. 

On Tuesday she tweeted, “Trashing Trans Pacific Partnership is a big fat gift to China, a blow to key allies, and a huge loss for American global leadership. So Sad!”
But wait. As Press Secretary Sean Spicer said Monday, the new administration will “make sure” China can no longer do as it pleases in international waters. 

Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson went further in his confirmation hearing, saying America will prevent China from accessing artificial islands it’s built in the South China Sea.
Add in Trump’s post-election phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wei, and his announcement later that he intends to fully reexamine the Nixon-era “One China” policy, and you get a new tone that suggests the days of coddling and being cowed by China are numbered.
“Trump has already put the Chinese off their game,” says the Heritage Foundation’s James Carafano. 

“It really seems they don’t know what to make of him and how to best respond. They face a president who is willing to challenge them both on the military and economic [fronts], and they seem unprepared for that.”
Carafano, who has advised Trump’s transition team on foreign relations and national security, told me that once Cabinet secretaries and key members are confirmed and sworn in, China will be high on the agenda of the State and Defense departments.
It should. 

With growing economic clout and an increasingly aggressive military, China has emerged as a superpower-in-waiting.
Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis and White House strategist Steve Bannon (a former US Navy officer in the Pacific who reportedly has keen interest in China policy) will be busy. 

All are China hawks.
Mattis will be in Japan and South Korea next week to start coordinating military strategy with our Pacific allies.

Good. 

The time has come to add some hard power to Obama’s “pivot to Asia” — a great slogan that never really turned into anything tangible.
While Obama endlessly negotiated TPP with too many countries, America’s naval dominance of the Pacific faded. 

Yes, there was the occasional joint naval exercise with allies. 

But they weren’t enough to convince our partners we mean business when we insist on freedom of navigation on the high seas.
China has become more brazen, building artificial islands, fortifying them into military bases, setting up no-go naval passages and demanding planes identify themselves in skies China doesn’t own.
Without much resistance.
So, yes, the new administration will be wise to fill in the trade gap the TPP demise left behind. 

And fast, before China picks up the leftovers. (The Philippines, Malaysia and others are already looking to cut trade and other deals with Beijing.)
Trump must quickly start negotiating a bilateral trade deal with Shinzo Abe, Japan’s nationalist prime minister who isn’t afraid to challenge China.
A deal with Tokyo will help Trump set up agreements with other Pacific partners. 

Such deals can be tailored to each country’s needs (with “America first,” of course), which can be more beneficial to all than the overly complex, multilateral TPP.
At any rate, trade in the Pacific will only be possible if Beijing’s muscle-flexing is kept in check. 

Unless America resumes its role as the guarantor of free navigation, China will make the rules in the region. 

And China’s rules will make the protectionist Trump look like Thomas Paine.
If Team Trump’s initial tough talk gels into a detailed, coherent strategy, and if Trump keeps his campaign promise to increase military budgets, Pacific partners will once again trust America. 

Good trade agreements will follow.
All that, of course, depends. 

Will Trump concentrate on resisting China, or on his campaign-trail demand that allies pay us more for “their” defense? 

Will the Pacific disappear from our agenda before the next presidential campaign begins in earnest? Will coherent strategy replace tough talk?
That’s likely what they’re trying to figure out in Beijing as well.