As Trump Assesses China, Start With Facts Not Theory

China’s maritime expansion is real, pragmatic and consequential. 

By Gary Roughead

On December 23, 2016 Chinese J-15 fighter jets sit on the deck of the Liaoning aircraft carrier during military drills in the Yellow Sea, off China's east coast.

The Trump administration has yet to set forth its foreign policy agenda, and it may be some time before sufficient detail emerges to discern a coherent strategy. 

As Russia dominated the news on the eve of the inauguration and many on the Trump national security team with a pedigree singularly focused on terrorism, it’s likely we will see early pronouncements on those two fronts, but it will be Asia that will steal the time and attention in the early days. 

China hedging for a possible shift in the One China policy prompted by President Trump's phone call with the president of Taiwan, conjecture of more nuclear and missile advancements by North Korea, the proximate political turmoil in our ally the Republic of Korea, Japan’s interest in the new administration’s approach to its alliance and extraordinarily important security relationship with the U.S., and a Philippine leader who is dramatically distancing his nation from a lengthy alliance relationship with the U.S., its most stalwart security guarantor. 

These are but a few Asian challenges in the queue on day one, and each will test the new team early on. 

China is a consequential factor in each.
With past as prologue, China will play the hand; we’ll play the individual card. 

In China’s hand will be the cards of the South and East China Seas. 

With freedom of navigation a legitimate litmus test of our resolve in the region, China can press its interests in those vital sea lanes while highlighting its growing naval prowess. 

Its recent grab of the U.S. underwater drone in the South China Sea is indicative of a testing gambit and the range of potential moves Beijing is willing and likely to employ as it tests the new administration. 

Similar moves and countermoves matter in setting a course for our relationship with China, and they matter greatly to our allies, partners and friends in the Indo-Pacific region. 

The President’s tweeted willingness to forego the return of the drone has raised questions about possible maritime security policies and resolve.
China hands, policy experts and pundits will question and criticize and offer opinions, pro and con, on policy options. 

Again, with past as prologue, those discussions will be theoretical—that is, what is possible or the ideals of a topic. 

The new administration must deal more with fact and less with theory. 

For too long the changes in Chinese military capacity, the numbers of ships and aircraft, have not been part of the public discussion. 

Now is the time to do some real studying and dig into the facts, especially those that underpin China’s maritime ambition.
China’s maritime expansion is real, pragmatic and consequential.

It is not just about the PLA Navy. 

Its expansion is also manifested in its Coast Guard, Maritime Militia, fishing and commercial fleets. 

History shows rising maritime powers are characterized by a vibrant shipbuilding industry. 

To understand that, and not just opine, the best reference on China’s maritime march is the recent “Chinese Naval Shipbuilding,” the work of the U.S. Naval War College’s impressive China Maritime Studies Institute and published by the Naval Institute Press. 

The expert contributors address the entirety of the shipbuilding process from research through design to the significant infrastructure that is in place to fulfill China’s maritime ambition. 

What comes through are China’s national focus and concerted efforts that have enabled its shipbuilding industry to grow faster than any other in modern history. 

A national enterprise that will produce the world’s second largest Navy by 2020 and which, by expert estimates, will be on par with the U.S. Navy by 2030. 

The authors acknowledge that such an undertaking is not without troubled areas, and some aspects of the industry lag, but it's apparent China too is aware of those shortcomings. 

Recognition of the problem is an attribute, and remedies are sure to follow. 

It is also apparent the U.S. and our more capable Asian allies, especially Japan, enjoy a qualitative advantage, but that edge is shrinking and 2030 is not that far away.

A Chinese magazine with a front page story naming Donald Trump as their Person of the Year at a news stand in Beijing on December 29, 2016.

President Trump and his national security team are no strangers to the importance of building things, the complexities and importance of industrial policy and the need for numbers, not just high-end capability, in dealing with the many security challenges to be faced early on in Asia. 

In assessing China, it is also wise to be mindful of the warrior-strategist Sun Tzu’s factors in the art of warfare: "calculation, quantities and logistics." 

Facts not theory – it’s the right place to start.