vendredi 30 décembre 2016

Trump can contain China with Russia's help

Thomas Jäger: By nominating China critics and Russia friends, US President Donald Trump has made clear that he intends to change the fundamental rules of US foreign and trade policies
DW
DW: By picking China critic Peter Navarro to lead the newly established White House National Trade Council, what is Donald Trump trying to achieve?
Thomas Jäger: Navarro's nomination proves that Trump wants to reshape and redesign policies rather than adapting to the changing situations. 
The incoming US administration says it wants to take a new path in foreign policy. 
The president-elect's team won't be as cautious in its business with China as the Obama administration. 
Trump believes that the US governments have emboldened Beijing, which now dominates international trade policies.

Will Trump start a trade war with China?

What we can say for sure is the US won't remain passive anymore
The US under Trump will redefine its relationship with Russia and contain China with Moscow's help. 
Trump will also strengthen ties with China's neighboring countries in the Pacific. 
This would be an enormous economic and political containment of China.

Are you saying that rapprochement with Russia and aggression toward China is part of the same US foreign policy?

I think so. 
If Trump succeeds in reshaping US relations with Russia, China will come under pressure. 
Then Beijing is likely to negotiate and could give up its claims on the South China Sea or offer trade concessions. 
We should keep in mind that an aggressive economic policy played a big role in the US' "victory" over the Soviet Union.

Are we in for a complete paradigm shift?

It looks possible. 
Maybe, it won't come to this. 
It also depends on how Moscow and Beijing react to Trump's policies. 
But it is pretty obvious that Trump and his team are pursuing a policy of being tough with China and easy with Russia at this point.

Many people still underestimate Trump's leadership qualities. Is it possible that he actually has a master plan?
Trump is evolving. 
In the recent weeks, he has consulted many politicians and consulting firms. They certainly have influenced him to some extent. 
They have introduced him to a world that he didn't know previously. 
I think he will be able to use this knowledge and his own ideas to his benefit.
President Trump has a completely different way of thinking than Barack Obama. Trump has a different mindset; he analyzes quarterly reports. 
I am sure the US foreign and trade policies will also be evaluated on a quarterly basis now.

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