China Tests U.S. Resolve

A new challenge to freedom of the seas as the Trump era nears.
The Wall Street Journal

Crew members aboard the VOS Raasay recover U.S. and British Royal Navy ocean gliders taking part in the Unmanned Warrior exercise off the northwest coast of Scotland on Oct. 8. A similar unmanned underwater vehicle was seized by the Chinese navy in international waters off the coast of the Philippines on Dec. 15. 

China’s theft of a U.S. Navy underwater drone in full view of the USNS Bowditch on Thursday is a telling episode. 

While Beijing agreed to return the drone over the weekend, along with bluster that the U.S. had “hyped” the heist, the Chinese navy’s actions were a deliberate provocation. 

China is testing U.S. resolve to maintain freedom of navigation in international waters that Beijing illegally claims as its own.
Some think the theft is a response to Donald Trump’s decision to take a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s President. 

But the People’s Liberation Army has pulled these stunts before. 

In April 2001, a PLA pilot tried a dangerous intercept with a U.S. spy plane in international airspace. He misjudged the distance, losing his own life and causing the U.S. plane to make an emergency landing in China. 

Beijing released the crew and plane after a 10-day standoff.
In March 2009, the PLA began a harassment campaign against the USNS Impeccable in international waters. 

After several days of dangerous maneuvers by five Chinese ships and one plane, the Chinese maritime militia tried to steal a towed sonar array from the ship. 

Whether China today is responding to Mr. Trump or offering a final insult to Obama is beside the point because the drone theft is part of a larger Chinese pattern.
China’s behavior shows its intention to intimidate its neighbors and establish hegemony in East Asia. 

In recent weeks the PLA air force has flown practice bombing missions, with fighter escorts, near the Japanese island of Okinawa and around Taiwan. 

The Japanese air force scrambled to intercept Chinese planes 571 times last year, up from 96 in 2010. Recently China has deployed military forces on disputed shoals in the South China Sea, contradicting Xi Jinping’s promise to Mr. Obama.
China objects to U.S. Navy and Air Force transits through and near these bases. 

The Obama Administration promised to carry out such missions regularly but then restricted the Pentagon to a handful. 

That sent a message that the U.S. can be intimidated from exercising its rights.
The drone theft may be a Chinese warning that the U.S. Navy will face harassment if a Trump Administration steps up such patrols. 

China is also rapidly expanding its submarine fleet, as an asymmetric response to U.S. surface dominance, and undersea drones map the ocean floor and test currents and sonar for submarine passage and detection.
The Chinese interception occurred about 50 nautical miles from the U.S. base at Subic Bay in the Philippines. 

The recent anti-American rants by Rodrigo Duterte may also have encouraged China to hope that an episode at sea could drive a larger rift between Manila and Washington. 

The Navy will have to expect more such interference.
All of this is occurring as Mr. Trump is signalling his intention to take a tougher line with China, at least initially, as he renegotiates the bilateral economic and strategic relationship. 

Mr. Trump’s precise goals aren’t clear, but one promise he’s likely to fulfill is rebuilding the U.S. Navy to reinforce America’s Pacific presence.
Chinese leaders may think these shows of force will intimidate the Trump Administration the way they did Obama. 

But they are likely to have the opposite effect. 

Mr. Trump doesn’t separate economic from security issues, and the Chinese are playing with fire.