jeudi 23 mars 2017

China stokes grievance against Seoul at its peril

The protests and the boycotts of South Korean goods may backfire 
Financial Times

History is littered with examples of governments removed by the same nationalist forces they tried to unleash on other countries.
The Chinese Communist party knows this but still insists on whipping up attacks and encouraging boycotts that target whichever country it happens to be upset with at the time.
Today it is the turn of South Korea.
Faced with the menace of a nuclear-armed Pyongyang, Seoul has allowed the US to deploy its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) missile shield on its soil.
China claims the weapons system’s radar will enable the US to see deep into Chinese territory, thereby tilting the strategic balance in the region and undermining Beijing’s own military capabilities. This is certainly part of the rationale behind Washington’s plan to deploy the shield.
The US is essentially telling Beijing that it is fed up with China’s lack of action in reining in its client state. 
If Beijing does not want Thaad to be deployed then it should do more to curb provocative aggression by North Korea. 
Instead, the Communist party has blanketed Chinese state media with anti-Korean vitriol, harassed South Korean businesses, stopped Chinese tourists from travelling to Korea and allowed schoolchildren to be indoctrinated through mass rallies and boycotts of Korean products. 
Korean supermarket chain Lotte, which provided some land for the deployment of Thaad, has borne the brunt of the Chinese attacks.
As many as 87 of its 99 stores in China have been temporarily or permanently closed, including many that have been targeted for spurious “fire safety” violations. 
This behaviour may violate World Trade Organization rules.
Seoul has already requested that the WTO looks into China’s actions.
At a time when Beijing is trying to counter the protectionist instincts of President Donald Trump, this behaviour is self-defeating.
It provides ammunition to those who would blame China for the ills of globalisation.
The Chinese government has tried to distance itself from the protests against South Korea by arguing that they are simply a reflection of public opinion.
But all forms of public protest in China are effectively banned, except those that happen to rail against the latest foreign enemy that party leaders are annoyed at. 
It is clear that Beijing is encouraging boycotts and stoking anti-Korean sentiment in the hope of forcing the next leader of South Korea into backing down over Thaad. 
Following the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, the country will hold an election in early May.
The frontrunner to replace Ms Park, Moon Jae-in, has already said he would reconsider the deployment of Thaad and that South Korea must learn to say “no” to the US.
Whoever wins the presidential election must find a way to ease tension with North Korea.
They will have to work with China, which is South Korea’s biggest trading partner.
But caving into Chinese economic pressure and unilaterally backing down on Thaad would be a mistake. 
Beijing continues to use economic nationalism in its disputes with other countries because it believes the pressure is effective; in the past it has been quite successful in forcing those countries to back down. 
Wiser heads would be wary of mixing such strategic and commercial imperatives, while stoking nationalism at home.
Not only does this make for difficult trading relations, but those same nationalist forces could ultimately prove hard to control.

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