Checking Manila’s Pivot to China

Duterte is attacking a pillar of America’s military posture in the Western Pacific.
By DAVID FEITH

Another week, another foreign trip, another Rodrigo Duterte crisis: Fresh from visiting Beijing and announcing an ominous but vague “separation” from the United States, the Philippine president this week visited Tokyo and got specific: U.S. troops should be out of the Philippines within two years. 

A U.S. ally is now attacking a pillar of America’s military posture in the Western Pacific.
Before almost any Americans had heard of Mr. Duterte, in 2014, his predecessor signed a deal to cement cooperation with the U.S. against China’s drive to dominate the South China Sea, Asia’s central waterway. 

The agreement invited the U.S. to rotate troops and materiel through Philippine bases while boosting train-and-equip programs for Philippine troops.
“Well, forget it,” Mr. Duterte says of the deal now. 

“I don’t want to see any military man of any other nation except the Filipino,” he declared Tuesday, characteristically overlooking the Chinese forces illegally occupying Philippine territory at Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.
Here’s an Asian pivot worthy of the name: Rarely has any country reoriented its foreign policy so dramatically and so quickly. 

Manila’s friends in the U.S. are confused and questioning: Is the alliance lost? 

Is Mr. Duterte’s gambit an indictment of Washington’s own underwhelming pivot to Asia? 

The answers carry lessons for the next U.S. president.
It’s true that the celebrated U.S. pivot, intended to deter China and reassure friends like the Philippines, has mostly amounted to better U.S. attendance at confabs like the East Asia Summit; important but limited openings to new partners Vietnam and India; and modest new U.S. military deployments to Singapore, Australia and (yes) the Philippines. 

The U.S. has undercut these gains by slashing defense budgets, embracing strategic retrenchment, letting Iraq and Syria burn, and so far failing to complete the trans-Pacific trade deal marketed as the pivot’s key element.
It’s also true that the U.S. failed to stop Beijing’s seizure of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012, its most aggressive maritime move. 

When Chinese fishermen and armed coast-guard ships evicted Philippine boats from the area, U.S. diplomats brokered a deal for both sides to withdraw—then stood by as Manila honored the deal and Beijing didn’t. 

This hurt trust in the U.S. and whetted Beijing’s appetite. 

As Ely Ratner, now a White House official, wrote in 2013: “Chinese officials and pundits began speaking of a ‘Scarborough Model’ for exerting regional influence.”
China soon built militarized artificial islands off the Philippine coast, with no effective pushback from Washington. 

“America would never die for us,” Duterte charged last year, two months before announcing his presidential bid. 

“If America cared, it would have sent its aircraft carriers and missile frigates the moment China started reclaiming land in contested territory, but no such thing happened.”
Yet would a stronger U.S. pivot have kept Duterte onside? 

Unlikely.
The 71-year-old was fiercely anti-American long before the fall of Scarborough Shoal. 

Until this year he was mayor of Davao, in the restive southern province of Mindanao, where he opposed U.S. forces invited by national leaders to fight al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf terrorists. 

He barred U.S. drones from Davao, boasted of his “hatred” for the U.S. after a local hotel bombing he blames on the FBI, and refused the job of Philippine defense secretary in 2006 rather than work with Uncle Sam.
A former student and admirer of Jose Maria Sison, exiled founder of the Communist Party of the Philippines, Duterte considers the U.S. a former colonial overlord trying to keep his country under foot. 

He resents U.S. criticism of the extrajudicial killings involved in his signature crackdown on drugs—it’s why he called Barack Obama a “son of a whore”—and at their first meeting he reportedly confronted Obama with a photograph of Filipinos slain by U.S. forces a century ago.
So the U.S. is dealing with a proud ideological foe. 

Whether he’ll cause irreparable harm to a 65-year-old alliance, though, remains uncertain.
Voters elected Duterte mostly to fight crime and raise incomes, not to spurn the U.S. for China. 

The Philippines is the world’s most pro-American country, according to Pew: 92% of Filipinos last year viewed the U.S. favorably; only 82% of Americans view their own country favorably.
This is thanks to cultural and linguistic ties dating to the colonial era, the large and successful Filipino community in the U.S., and America’s standing as the Philippines’ second-largest trade partner behind Japan—all in addition to its liberation of the islands in World War II and its more recent contributions of military and humanitarian aid. 

China by contrast is viewed with suspicion, identified as it is with unpopular business elites and bullying in the South China Sea.
Hence the mounting pushback against Duterte—not only from political rivals but from the likes of former President Fidel Ramos, a respected elder statesman and former Duterte ally with close ties to the military, and Antonio Carpio, a Supreme Court justice who warned that undermining Philippine sovereignty at Scarborough Shoal would be an impeachable offense.
The U.S. can help as its Philippine friends try to check Duterte. 

For one, it can show that China isn’t the only country with strategic dollars to spend. 

As much as the Philippine military values U.S. training and equipment, U.S. aid fell from 2010 to 2015. 

The U.S. started to fix that last year with its Maritime Security Initiative, but Congress can do far more.
Mr. Obama and his successor meanwhile must show that the presidential transition won’t distract from U.S. commitments in Asia. 

The impression of U.S. strategic drift might not have created Duterte, but it gives him room to run. 

He’ll have less if the next U.S. president enters office pledging significant increases in defense spending. 

Adversaries in Beijing and Moscow know to read U.S. budget tables, and so do leaders in Manila weighing how hard to fight for a U.S. alliance on the ropes.

Duterte says U.S. has "lost"; aligns Philippines with China

By Ben Blanchard | BEIJING

Rodrigo Duterte announced his "separation" from the United States on Thursday, declaring he had realigned with China as the two agreed to resolve their South China Sea dispute through talks.
Duterte made his comments in Beijing, where he is visiting with at least 200 business people to pave the way for what he calls a new commercial alliance as relations with longtime ally Washington deteriorate.
"In this venue, your honours, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States," Duterte told Chinese and Philippine business people, to applause, at a forum in the Great Hall of the People attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli.
"Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also. America has lost."
Duterte's efforts to engage China, months after a tribunal in the Hague ruled that Beijing did not have historic rights to the South China Sea in a case brought by the previous administration in Manila, marks a reversal in foreign policy since the 71-year-old former mayor took office on June 30.
His trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, said $13.5 billion in deals would be signed during the China trip.
"I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to President Vladimir Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world -- China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way," Duterte told his Beijing audience.
Duterte's remarks will prompt fresh concern in the United States, where the Obama administration has seen Manila as an important ally in its "rebalance" of resources to Asia in the face of a rising China.
The administration agreed a deal with Duterte's predecessor granting U.S. forces rotational access to bases in the Philippines and further doubts will be raised about the future of this arrangement.
In Washington, however, the White House stressed the traditional bonds between the United States and the Philippines in response to Duterte's comments and stuck to a U.S. approach of seeking to play down his repeated verbal attacks.
"The U.S.-Philippine alliance is built on a 70-year history, rich people to people ties and a long list of shared security concerns," White House spokesman Eric Schultz told reporters.

"We have not received any official requests from Filipino officials to alter any of our many issues where we bilaterally cooperate."
Schultz said the White House does not view Manila's relationship with China as a "zero sum game."
"We believe that it's in our national security interests when our partners and allies in the region have strong relationships with China," he said.
A few hours after Duterte's speech, his top economic policymakers released a statement saying that, while Asian economic integration was "long overdue", that did not mean the Philippines was turning its back on the West.
"We will maintain relations with the West but we desire stronger integration with our neighbours," said Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez and Economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia in a joint statement. 

"We share the culture and a better understanding with our region."

RED CARPET WELCOME
China has pulled out all the stops to welcome Duterte, including a marching band complete with baton-twirling band master at his official greeting ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People, which is not extended to most leaders.
Xi Jinping, meeting Duterte earlier in the day, called the visit a "milestone" in ties.
Xi told Duterte that China and the Philippines were brothers and they could "appropriately handle disputes", though he did not mention the South China Sea in remarks made in front of reporters.
"I hope we can follow the wishes of the people and use this visit as an opportunity to push China-Philippines relations back on a friendly footing and fully improve things," Xi said.
Following their meeting, during which Duterte said relations with China had entered a new "springtime", Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said the South China Sea issue was not the sum total of relations.
"The two sides agreed that they will do what they agreed five years ago, that is to pursue bilateral dialogue and consultation in seeking a proper settlement of the South China Sea issue," Liu said.
China claims most of the energy-rich South China Sea through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. 

Neighbours Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.
In 2012, China seized the disputed Scarborough Shoal and denied Philippine fishermen access to its fishing grounds.
Liu said the shoal was not mentioned and he did not answer a question about whether Philippine fishermen would be allowed there. 

He said both countries had agreed on coastguard and fisheries cooperation, but did not give details.

SEA DISPUTE TAKES 'BACK SEAT'
Duterte's tone towards Beijing is in stark contrast to the language he has used against the United States, after being infuriated by U.S. criticism of his bloody war on drugs.
He has called Barack Obama a "son of a bitch" and told his to "go to hell", while alluding to severing ties with the old colonial power.
On Wednesday, to the cheers of hundreds of Filipinos in Beijing, Duterte said Philippine foreign policy was veering towards China.
"I will not go to America anymore. We will just be insulted there," Duterte said. 

"So time to say goodbye my friend."
The same day, about 1,000 anti-U.S. protesters gathered outside the U.S. embassy in Manila calling for the removal of U.S. troops from the southern island of Mindanao.
Duterte's abrupt pivot from Washington to Beijing is unlikely to be universally popular at home, however. 

On Tuesday an opinion poll showed Filipinos still trust the United States far more than China.
Duterte on Wednesday said the South China Sea arbitration case would "take the back seat" during talks, and that he would wait for the Chinese to bring up the issue rather than doing so himself.
Xi said issues that could not be immediately be resolved should be set aside, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
China has welcomed the Philippines approaches, even as Duterte has vowed not to surrender any sovereignty to Beijing, which views the South China Sea Hague ruling as null and void.
China has also expressed support for his drug war, which has raised concern in Western capitals about extrajudicial killing.

Is Duterte the Filipino Quisling?

Duterte's Deference Delights China but Is Questioned at Home

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIJING — Rodrigo Duterte's effusive message of friendship on his visit to Beijing this week has handed China a public relations bonanza just three months after Beijing suffered a humiliating defeat at an international tribunal.

The state-owned Chinese media that sought to portray Duterte's predecessor and the arbitration panel as American puppets this summer have now rolled out what Chinese media scholars describe as a rare welcome for the Philippine president, who this week downplayed his country's dispute with Beijing over South China Sea territory.
But the overtures have drawn criticism of Duterte at home in the Philippines, where the public is wary of taking a deferential attitude to a country regarded as a bully.
As his visit unfolded this week, Chinese state media aired a series of interviews in which Duterte — who has repeatedly voiced strident criticism of the United States — lavished his Chinese hosts with conciliatory words and pleaded earnestly for economic aid.
Zhan Jiang, a journalism professor at the Beijing Foreign Studies University, said he has rarely seen a state visit accompanied by so many interviews from state media.
"The visit has strategic significance and China wants to express its welcome, but Duterte also has a message to convey and he's willing to give that same message to different Chinese outlets over and over," Zhan said. 

"In the years I've followed the Chinese media I don't think I've ever seen that."
In a 12-minute China Central Television interview broadcast Wednesday, Duterte cast the two countries as bound as brothers by the South China Sea and mentioned his own Chinese ancestry — his grandfather was an immigrant from Xiamen province — which, he said, explains his personal sincerity. 

Developing his country's economy was more important than exacerbating tensions with China over the South China Sea, as other U.S.-backed Southeast Asian neighbors would have him do, he said.
"They say that all the nations would weigh in by my side, (but) I said it is close to a third world war," he told CCTV. 

"What would be my point in insisting on the ownership of that body of water when the world is exploding?"
Someday, he added, the South China Sea will just be known as the China Sea. 

"One hundred years from now, it's really meaningless," he said. 

"The oceans cannot feed us all. Your fish is my fish."
Later Wednesday, speaking to reporters in Beijing, Duterte said he would not discuss the South China Sea issue unless Xi Jinping raised it.
"As a matter of courtesy and in the Oriental way, you always wait, because I am a visitor, I can't destroy the goodwill by just blurting out something," he said.
There was plenty of apparent goodwill spilling forth from Chinese state television and off its official newspaper's editorial pages.
During the interview segment, veteran CCTV correspondent Shui Junyi narrated Duterte's rise as a political leader of conviction who fought against crime and drugs as mayor of Davao but has suffered Western criticism for human rights abuses.
Duterte outlined his wish list of help from Beijing, led first by his hope that China would include the Philippines in the Asian giant's massive Silk Road economic project. 

Shui responded: "We never forget you."
He also said he hoped for a railroad, if China could "find it in your heart to give it to us."
But Duterte's posture in China has been met with skepticism back home. 

Although his supporters have cheered his diplomatic pivot away from the United States on social media, the country's major media outlets have questioned his remarks in China, said Richard Heydarian, a professor of political science at De La Salle University in Manila.
"The mainstream media is saying it doesn't sound right to be so deferential to the very country that has occupied Philippine territory, and that has provided negligible aid during Typhoon Haiyan," said Heydarian. 

"Now he's popular enough to shape public sentiment and ameliorate opponents, but that's not guaranteed a year from now. He's lucky this is his honeymoon period."
Former Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, who brought the triumphant arbitration case against China, said his country's foreign policy should not cast aside a longtime ally — the United States — and favor another state, referring to China.
"It has recently been perceived that our foreign policy had seemingly gone off-track," del Rosario said in Manila on Tuesday.
At the end of the CCTV interview segment, Duterte told his interviewer that he wanted to deliver a closing message to the people of China and to its leaders who had granted him "permission" to visit.
"I'm going there in friendship, to extend my hand in warm brotherhood and also to ask for help," Duterte said, turning to face the camera directly. 

"I must be frank, I must be honest enough to say that we need your help."

Rodrigo Duterte's pivot to China

Duterte is questioning the Philippines' century-old US alliance while ramping up his diplomatic flirtation with China.
By Richard Javad Heydarian
On National Heroes' Day, Rodrigo Duterte shakes hands with Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jinhua.

"I am no American puppet. I am the president of a sovereign country and I am not answerable to anyone except the Filipino people," proclaimed Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines' controversial leader. 

It was a defiant remark in response to the West's increasingly vocal criticism of his "shock and awe" campaign against drugs.
Over the past few weeks, Duterte has upped the ante by questioning the Philippines' century-old alliance with the United States while intensifying his diplomatic flirtation with China.
First he threatened to expel American Special Forces aiding Filipino counterterror operations in the southern island of Mindanao.
Then he suggested ending joint maritime patrols and military exercises with America in the South China Sea and, more recently, even discussed the possibility of abrogating defence agreements with the US.

Deep suspicion
Meanwhile, Duterte went so far as considering an alliance with Russia and China. 

Currently, the Duterte administration is negotiating a 25-year military agreement with Beijing, paving the way for purchase of Chinese weaponry by the largely US-equipped and trained armed forces of the Philippines.
There have also been parallel negotiations to buy advanced weaponry from Moscow, including MI17 or MI24 heavily armoured attack helicopters. 

Time and again, Duterte has called for closer and friendly ties with the Eastern powers, particularly China, which a majority of Filipinos view with deep suspicion.
The Filipino leader has, quite paradoxically, adopted a pragmatic position on the South China Sea, calling for a dialogue-based, bilateral settlement of maritime disputes.
And, unlike any of his predecessors, Duterte is set embark on a state visit to China before the US. 

All of a sudden, Duterte seems to have reshuffled regional strategic alignments in Asia.

New best friend
"I am ready to not really break ties [with America] but we will open alliances with China and . . . Medvedev [Russia]," said Duterte recently, catching even his most avid supporters by surprise.
Invoking Caesar, Duterte has expressed his preference to join the "other side of the ideological barrier", breaking ties with the West altogether.
He has almost completely discarded his predecessor, Benigno Aquino's confrontational strategy towards China, which was largely hinged on America military and diplomatic support. 

Instead, Duterte has emphasised the necessity for setting aside sovereignty disputes with China by focusing on joint development schemes.

He has sought to downplay the Philippines arbitration case against China,, which nullified the bulk of China’s claims across the South China Sea. 

In fact, he has refused to even raise the issue in multilateral forums.
Meanwhile, he has expanded cooperation with China in various fields, including in his signature "war on drugs" campaign.
"We stand ready to have anti-drug cooperation with the Philippines and formulate a common action plan for it," Chinese Foreign Ministry said in response to Manila's request for assistance.
Duterte has repeatedly extolled Beijing's offer to aid his anti-drugs policy by offering logistical support and intelligence. 

As a symbol of its commitment, China has even built rehabilitation centres for Filipino drug users.
China has also offered to revamp the Philippines' decrepit public infrastructure. 

Several senior Filipino officials have visited China to discuss potentially multibillion-dollar investments, with Duterte going the extra mile to portray China as a loving and caring neighbour to his countrymen.
"I have a good feeling they [China] really want to help us in a big way … I promise you I will build hospitals and schools from the soft-term loans we will get [from China]," promised Duterte in a recent speech.

The backlash
Before his trip to China later this month, Duterte is preparing a huge business delegation to negotiate a wide-ranging series of bilateral trade and investment deals. 

China is expected to roll out the red carpet and woo him by showering the Filipino leader with utmost hospitality and respect.
Intent on ensuring territorial disputes don't undermine burgeoning ties with China, Duterte has seemingly asked Filipinos to not insist on regaining control of the bitterly disputed Scarborough Shoal, which falls well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone and was the site of a naval standoff between the Philippines and China in 2012.
Emphasising the supposed futility of confronting China on territorial disputes, Duterte has suggested that the Philippines should "not touch the Scarborough Shoal issue because we cannot win that", since, he argues, "We can't beat [China]".
Meanwhile, relations with traditional allies such as America have hit rock bottom, as disagreements over human rights and South China Sea issues are compounded.

Confrontational language
The US President Barack Obama has openly criticised Duterte's campaign against drugs, while encouraging the Philippines to settle territorial disputes with China in accordance to the arbitration award at The Hague. 

Notwithstanding Dutetre's fiery criticism of America, the superpower remains deeply popular among Filipinos, who are largely critical and suspicious of China.
The same is true of the Philippine security establishment, which is deeply dependent on American training as well as logistical and financial support.
More importantly, Duterte's confrontational language towards America has invited vigorous criticism among his most influential supporters, including former President Fidel Ramos, who recently warned about the risk of "throwing away decades of military partnership, tactical proficiency, compatible weaponry, predictable logistics, and soldier-to-soldier camaraderie" with Americans.
For now, however, it seems that Duterte is more interested in pushing back against Western critics and rebuilding ties with China, even if that means renegotiating certain parameters of existing security cooperation with America. 

But it is unlikely that he will ditch his country's alliance with Washington altogether.