The Necessary War

South China Sea: Chinese fighter jets deployed to contested island
By Brad Lendon

ImageSat International (ISI).

Hong Kong -- A satellite image obtained by CNN shows China has deployed at least four J-10 fighter jets to the contested Woody Island in the South China Sea, the first known deployment of fighter jets there since 2017.
The image was taken Wednesday and represents the first time J-10s have been seen on Woody or any Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea, according to ImageSat International, which supplied the image to CNN.
The deployment comes as tensions remain high in the South China Sea and Chinese dictator Xi Jinping prepares to meet Donald Trump at the G-20 summit in Japan next week.


Analysts who looked at the satellite photo for CNN said both the placement of the planes out in the open and accompanying equipment is significant and indicates the fighter jets were on the contested island for up to 10 days.
"They want you to notice them. Otherwise they would be parked in the hangars," said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer and fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. 

"What message do they want you to take from them?"
Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, said the deployment is designed to "demonstrate it is their territory and they can put military aircraft there whenever they want."
"It also makes a statement that they can extend their air power reach over the South China Sea as required or desired," Schuster said.
The J-10 jets have a combat range of about 500 miles (740 kilometers), putting much of the South China Sea and vital shipping lands within reach, Schuster said.
The four planes are not carrying external fuel tanks, the analysts said. 

That suggests they were to be refueled on the island, so the plan may be to keep them there awhile.

Chinese J-10 fighters fly at Airshow China in Zhuhai in 2010.

"It could be an early training deployment as part of getting the J-10 squadron operationally ready for an ADIZ (air defense identification zone) declaration," Layton said. 

"This activity may be the new normal."
China said in 2016 it reserved the right to impose an ADIZ over the South China Sea, which would require aircraft flying over the waters to first notify Beijing. 

It set up an ADIZ over the East China Sea in 2013, prompting an outcry from Japan and the United States, but the zone has not been fully enforced.
Woody Island (đảo Phú Lâm) is the largest of the Paracel chain, also known as the Hoàng Sa.
The Paracels (Hoàng Sa) sit in the north-central portion of the 1.3 million-square-mile South China Sea. 

They are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, but have been occupied by China since 1974, when Chinese troops ousted a South Vietnamese garrison.
The past several years have seen Beijing substantially upgrade its facilities on the islands, deploying surface-to-air missiles, building 20 hangars at the airfield, upgrading two harbors and performing substantial land reclamation, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.
Woody Island has served as a blueprint for Beijing's more prominent island-building efforts in the Spratly chain to the south, AMTI said in a 2017 report.
The appearance of the J-10s on Woody Island comes just over a year after China sent its H-6K long-range bombers to the island for test flights for the first time.
The PLA claimed that mission was a part of China's aim to achieve a broader regional reach, quicker mobilization, and greater strike capabilities.
A military expert, Wang Mingliang, was quoted in a Chinese statement as saying the training would hone the Chinese air force's war-preparation skills and its ability to respond to various security threats in the region.
In 2017, a report in China's state-run Global Times, said fighter jets -- J-11s -- were deployed to Woody Island for the first time, with the new hangars able to protect the warplanes from the island's high heat and humidity.
That report said such hangars would be useful on other Chinese islands to greatly enhance Beijing's control over the South China Sea.

China has been quietly perfecting a key military outpost in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Here's a look at how it developed

• Beijing has quietly been building up a rugged power projection platform on Woody Island in the South China Sea.
• China first took possession of Woody Island in 1956 and has since equipped it with airstrips, hangars, ports and surface-to-air missile systems.
• Here's a look at how China developed this key strategic military outpost.

By Amanda Macias

Soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy patrol at Woody Island, in the Paracel Archipelago, January 29, 2016. The words on the rock read, "Xisha Old Dragon". Old Dragon is the local name of a pile of rocks near Woody Island.

The numerous overlapping sovereign claims on islands, reefs, and rocks — many of which disappear under high tide — have turned the South China Sea into a virtual armed camp.

And China has been quietly perfecting one of its key military outposts in the disputed waters.
The South China Sea, which is home to more than 200 specks of land, serves as a gateway to global sea routes through which approximately $3.4 trillion of trade passes annually.
China, the second-largest economy in the world, links its economic security closely to these waterways since more than 64 percent of its maritime trade transited through the region in 2016. 

The South China Sea is also a vital trade artery for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
The Spratly Islands, to which six countries lay claim, receive significantly more attention than other areas in the waters. 

Since there are more stakeholders involved with them, they are considered to be a more likely flashpoint for potential conflict.
Just north of the Spratly Islands lie the Paracels, where Beijing has quietly been building up a rugged power projection platform. 

Woody Island, the largest of the Paracels, lies at the center of China's strategy.

Beijing first took possession of Woody Island in 1956. 

The satellite photo above shows what the island looked like on Dec. 14, 2012.
"Woody Island serves as the administrative and military center of China's presence in the South China Sea," Gregory Poling, Center for Strategic and International Studies fellow and director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told CNBC.
Between 2012 and 2016, China significantly upgraded the installation with an airstrip and expanded the island's infrastructure, as seen below.

Poling noted that since 2013, Beijing has used the outpost as a template for upgrading its bases in the Spratly Islands.
"We assume that anything we see at Woody will eventually find its way farther south to more directly menace China's neighbors," he said.
In short, Beijing will deploy capabilities found on Woody Island throughout the South China Sea.

Less than a year later, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative spotted China's Shenyang J-11 fighter jet on Woody Island. 

It is unclear whether this is the only aircraft on the island, or if there are more parked inside hangars.
Woody Island is believed to have "the most advanced deployments of military assets in the South China Sea," according to Poling.
Below is the most recent satellite photo of the island, taken on Jan. 25, 2018.

The resources deployed include a permanent presence of HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, J-10 and J-11 fighter jets, anti-ship cruise missile platforms, as well as various military transport and patrol aircraft. China's HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system, dubbed the "Red Banner," is a long range air defense platform. 

The interceptors are mounted and launched from a truck and can target aircraft, drones and cruise missiles.
Poling notes that the inclusion of HQ-9 missiles on the island is a defensive measure used to protect aircraft and ships nearby.

Chinese Aggressions

CHINA’S BIG THREE NEAR COMPLETION
ASIA MARITIME TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE

Just over a year ago, former director of national intelligence James Clapper wrote a letter to Senator John McCain predicting that China would complete its offensive and defensive facilities in the Spratly Islands in late 2016 or early 2017. 

He wasn’t far off the mark. 

Major construction of military and dual-use infrastructure on the “Big 3”—Subi, Mischief, and Fiery Cross Reefs—is wrapping up, with the naval, air, radar, and defensive facilities that AMTI has tracked for nearly two years largely complete. Beijing can now deploy military assets, including combat aircraft and mobile missile launchers, to the Spratly Islands at any time.
China’s three air bases in the Spratlys and another on Woody Island in the Paracels will allow Chinese military aircraft to operate over nearly the entire South China Sea. 

The same is true of China’s radar coverage, made possible by advanced surveillance/early-warning radar facilities at Fiery Cross, Subi, and Cuarteron Reefs, as well as Woody Island, and smaller facilities elsewhere. 

China has maintained HQ-9 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems on Woody Island for more than a year and has on at least one occasion deployed anti-ship cruise missiles to the island. 

It has now constructed hardened shelters with retractable roofs for mobile missile launchers on the Big 3.

Fiery Cross Reef





Construction of all the hangars at Fiery Cross Reef—enough to accommodate 24 combat aircraft and four larger planes (such as ISR, transport, refueling, or bomber aircraft)—has finished. 

In January, radomes were installed atop three previously unidentified large towers on the northeast arm of the reef as well as a tower at the north end of the airstrip. 

A large collection of radomes installed to the north of the airstrip represents a significant radar/sensor array.

Mischief Reef






On Mischief Reef, the hangars for 24 combat aircraft have been completed and in early March construction teams were putting the finishing touches on five larger hangars. 

A finished radar tower stands in the middle of the reef and a trio of large towers have been constructed on the southwestern corner. 

The recent placement of a radome on the ground next to one of these towers indicates that they will follow the same pattern as the identical sets at Fiery Cross and Subi. 

Retractable roofs are also being installed on the recently-built missile shelters.

Subi Reef





On Subi Reef, construction is complete on hangars for 24 combat aircraft and four larger hangars. Recent imagery shows the radomes on Subi’s three-tower array in various stages of completion, along with a completed radar tower next to the runway. 

Subi Reef also sports what appears to be a high-frequency “elephant cage” radar array on its southern end. This is unique among the Big 3. 

As with radar facilities at the other reefs, this high-frequency radar is close to a point defense structure, providing protection against air or missile strikes.

Chinese aggressions

China begins new work on Paracel (Hoàng Sa) islands
By Greg Torode | HONG KONG

China has started fresh construction work in the disputed South China Sea, new satellite images show, a sign that Beijing is continuing to strengthen its military reach across the vital trade waterway.
Regional military attaches and experts believe the work shows China's determination to build up its network of reefs and islets, even if it is seeking to avoid a fresh confrontation with the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
An image of North Island (Đảo Bắc) in the Paracels group taken on March 6 shows recent work including land clearing and possible preparation for a harbor to support what experts believe may be eventual military installations. 

Initial work was damaged in a typhoon last year.
The pictures, provided by private satellite firm Planet Labs, follow reports in January showing work undertaken on nearby Tree Island (Đảo Cây) and other features in the Paracels, which are also claimed by Vietnam.

Diplomats briefed on latest Western intelligence assessments say Beijing is pursuing efforts to dominate its maritime 'backyard', even if it tweaks the timing of moves to avoid being overtly provocative.
"The Paracels are going to be vital to any future Chinese attempt to dominate the South China Sea," said Carl Thayer, a South China Sea expert at Australia's Defence Force Academy.
"We can see they are committed to militarization, whatever the official rhetoric tells us, even if they are going to do it bit by bit."

UNCERTAINTIES OVER TRUMP

Combination of satellite photos shows Chinese-controlled North Island, part of the Paracel Islands group in the South China Sea, on February 15, 2017 (top) and on March 6, 2017. 

The more widely disputed Spratlys archipelago to the south are higher profile but the Paracels are key to China’s presence in the South China Sea,
China has in recent years temporarily based surface-to-air missile launchers and crack jet fighters at long established bases on Woody Island (Đảo Phú Lâm) on the Paracels, helping protect its nuclear submarine facilities on Hainan Island.

North Island (Đảo Bắc) is part of an arc of reefs that are expected to form a protective screen for Woody, which includes civilian facilities and a listening post.
Zhang Baohui, a mainland security expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, said he believed China was pursuing long-held goals of strengthening its facilities in the Paracels, and had calculated the Trump administration would not react given other pressing priorities.
"There’s also uncertainty with this young Trump administration, but this is very important work to the Chinese… the Paracels are vital to defending Hainan, which is in turn important to China’s nuclear deterrent," he said.
"The calculation here is that it is really only Vietnam that will be rattled by this."
The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
China's Defence Ministry said it was "not familiar" with any work at North Island (Đảo Bắc).
"What needs to be stressed is that the Paracel Islands are China’s inherent territory," it said.

China fully occupied the Paracels in 1974 after forcing the navy of the-then South Vietnam off its holdings.
News of fresh Chinese activity comes as Rex Tillerson prepares for his first visit to the region as U.S. Secretary of State later this week. 

Tillerson sparked alarm in Beijing when he said in January China should not be allowed access to islands it has built in the South China Sea.
A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, was unable to confirm new construction work on North Island but said it would not be surprising.
"It would be in line with what they have been doing, why else would they clearing land on the islands but for militarization," the official said. 

"There is no other reason to have a presence there."
Diplomatic sources in Beijing say China is not looking for confrontation with the United States over the South China Sea, pointing to China’s low-key reaction to last month’s patrol of a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group in the waters there.
China has recently sought to portray itself as being conciliatory over the disputed waterway, saying it and Southeast Asian nations are committed to a peaceful resolution.

Chinese Aggressions

China beefing up military on Paracel Islands in the South China Sea

By Kristin Huang

This photo taken on May 5, 2016 shows crew members of China's South Sea Fleet taking part in a drill in the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

Satellite images suggest China has upgraded its military ­infrastructure in the disputed ­Paracel Islands (Hoàng Sa) in the South China Sea.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said on Wednesday that China now ­occupied 20 outposts in the ­Paracels, and that there had been an extensive military build-up on eight islands.
"Three of these now have ­protected harbors capable of hosting large numbers of naval and civilian vessels. Four others boast smaller harbors, with a fifth under construction at Drummond Island (đảo Duy Mộng)," the group said on its website.
"Five of the islands contain helipads, with Duncan Island (đảo Quang Hoà) housing a full helicopter base. And the largest of the Paracels, Woody Island (đảo Phú Lâm), sports an airstrip, hangars and a [detachment] of HQ-9 surface-to-air missile batteries."

The group said further expansion could help Beijing consolidate its presence and project its power in the region.
"Not all of China's outposts in the Paracels currently house significant infrastructure, and many contain no more than one or two buildings … but the presence of small buildings and construction materials suggests China may be preparing to expand those features," the group said.
"This is part of China's broader efforts to consolidate its grip on adjacent waters and disputed islands," said Richard Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila.
China has repeatedly promised it would not militarise its man-made islands in the South China Sea.
The think tank claimed in ­December that Beijing had placed weaponry on seven of the artificial islands it had built in the region.
At that time, China replied: "The necessary military facilities are mainly for self defense. When someone is flexing muscles at your doorstep, wouldn't you ­prepare a slingshot?"
China's strengthening of its armed forces and increasingly ­assertive claims to most of the South China Sea have created ­unease among its neighbors and the United States.
Chinese analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive stance towards China is one of the things triggering its actions.
"That's how China reacts to the outside world. If Trump did not make irresponsible anti-China remarks, the militarization of artificial islands in South China Sea would be delayed," Zhou Chenming, from the think tank Knowfar Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies, said.
"The situation now is particularly tense," ­Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College in London, said.
"The bottom line is that China believes this area is its own backyard for it to do as it pleases, and the US and others fundamentally disagree," Brown said.
"It is hard to see an easy way of bridging the divide between these two positions."