Rival South China Sea visions in spotlight as Washington, Beijing front Shangri-La Dialogue

By Brad Lendon

Hong Kong -- With China-US relations already strained amid an escalating trade war, attention is about to turn to a familiar arena -- the South China Sea.
After years of stand-offs and brinkmanship in the hotly contested region, acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan is expected to unveil the Pentagon's new Indo-Pacific strategy at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday.
Intriguingly, just one day later Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe is scheduled to speak about Beijing's role in the Indo-Pacific -- the highest-ranking Chinese official to appear at Asia's premier defense conference in eight years.
Their presence is significant. 

Beijing claims almost the entire 1.3 million square mile South China Sea as its sovereign territory and aggressively asserts its stake, with Xi Jinping saying it will never give up "any inch of territory."
US military officials, meanwhile, have vowed to continue enforcing a free and open Indo-Pacific.

The Chinese Type 52D guided missile destroyer Guiyang participates in a naval parade on April 23, 2019.

William Choong, senior fellow at the Shangri-La Dialogue, said in a tweet Tuesday that the presence of both Wei and Shanahan would set up "a clash of two visions — the US/Japan-led 'free and open' Indo-Pacific and China's 'Asia for Asians.'"
Analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, told CNN: "Chinese leaders now recognize the value of multilateral defense venues and want to deny the US a monopoly of great power influence."
US intentions for the region have already been telegraphed strongly.
The Pentagon has stepped up freedom-of-navigation operations to as often as weekly. 

And the commander of the US Pacific Air Forces said this month that Air Force jets were flying in and around the South China Sea almost daily.
Washington has also sent warships through the Taiwan Strait separating China from what it calls its renegade province several times this year.
One of Washington's Taiwan Strait operations included a US Coast Guard cutter, which later sailed into the South China Sea — sending the fifth arm of its military and its main maritime law enforcement agency into the Pacific fray.
More robust US armament packages also seem to be part of the plan. 

For bilateral exercises with the Philippines in April, the US loaded the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp with 10 F-35B stealth fighters — four more than it normally carries — and sailed it into the South China Sea.

The amphibious assault ship USS Wasp transits the waters of the South China Sea with a large load of F-35 fighters.

Of course, it's not just the US that's active around the region. 

Its allies and partners are also involved.
France sent a ship through the Taiwan Strait this year, and is showing off its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier on the sidelines of the conference. 

In May alone, Japanese, Indian, Philippine and US ships took part in a multilateral South China Sea exercise — while conference host Singapore held live-fire drills with India. 

A four-ship Australian naval force also visited countries around the region in a three-month trip that ended this week.
Meanwhile, US officials have bigger plans for the coming year.
In a conference call with reporters this month, US chief of naval operations Adm. John Richardson reiterated plans for the forward deployment of two littoral combat ships — fast, maneuverable warships designed for shallow-water operations — to Singapore this year. 

The ships would be the US Navy assets stationed closest to the South China Sea.
And in March, the commander of US Army forces in the Pacific, Gen. Robert Brown, announced plans to train 10,000 US troops for combat in "a South China Sea scenario." 

The Philippines and Thailand were mentioned as possible destinations for the troops.
The US pressure on Beijing extends back to Washington, where a bipartisan group of senators last week introduced legislation that would impose sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals who help the PLA's South China Sea build-up.
"China has been bully in both the South and East China Seas, encroaching on and intimidating its neighbors. Such aggressive behavior cannot go on unchecked," Sen. Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said in a statement.
For its part, China hasn't backed down at all: launching new warships, touting new weapons, keeping its forces active in the South China Sea — around Taiwan and beyond — and blasting Washington.
Beijing says it is the US that endangers peace in the region.

What are China's naval goals? The West can't wait to find out

On May 12, it launched two Type-52D destroyers in a single day — the 19th and 20th of what are expected to be 30 ships in that class.
A US Defense Department report released in early May said China had Asia's largest navy, with more than 300 ships and submarines.
Military analyst Euan Graham, who was aboard an Australian warship during a recent South China Sea operation, said it and other Australian and US ships operating in the region were all closely monitored by the Chinese navy.
"The ubiquity of PLAN (PLA Navy) vessels shadowing other warships in the (South China Sea) suggests that China's surface force has grown big enough to be able to 'close-mark' at will," Graham wrote on The Strategist blog.
Meanwhile, the PLA Navy has held training exercises with Russia off China's east coast and with Thailand to the south.
To the north, Chinese air force jets in April conducted what Taiwan said was their most "provocative" mission in years in the Taiwan Strait, crossing the median line between the island and the mainland.
"It was an intentional, reckless and provocative action. We've informed regional partners and condemn China for such behavior," Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
But it's clear Taiwan can't expect much quarter from China.
A May report on the PLA's English-language website touted a new amphibious assault vehicle as "the world's most advanced." 

With its help, combined with other weapons in China's arsenal, "the People's Liberation Army is well positioned to deal with Taiwan secessionists and potential island disputes."
The Shangri-La Dialogue touts itself as a venue "where ministers debate the region's most pressing security challenges, engage in important bilateral talks and come up with fresh solutions together."
But against that backdrop of bluster and build-up, it's hard to expect any compromises to emerge from what Wei and Shanahan have to say.

China's isolation at the Shangri-La Dialogue

Britain, France Join U.S. in Responding to Chinese Intimidation and Coercion in South China Sea

By Patrick Goodenough

Ships and submarines participating in the biennial RIMPAC exercise in 2012. The Obama administration invited China to take part in 2014 and 2016, but the Pentagon has rescinded the invitation for the 2018 exercises. 

Britain and France are backing U.S.-led efforts to challenge what Defense Secretary James Mattis at the weekend called Chinese “intimidation and coercion” in the disputed South China Sea.
The two European defense ministers indicated in Singapore – where they and Mattis were taking part in the annual Shangri La security dialogue – that their navy ships will conduct “freedom of navigation” operations in the region in the coming days.
French armed forces minister Florence Parly said French and British ships would visit Singapore in the days ahead before “sailing together to certain areas.”
“I mean those areas where, at some point, a stern voice intrudes into the transponder, and tells us, sail away from supposedly territorial waters,” she continued. 

“But our commander then calmly replies that he will sail forth, because these – under international law – are indeed international waters.”
British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, who spoke at the security event and addressed sailors onboard a Royal Navy frigate docked in Singapore, said Britain has sent three warships to the region, where their presence aims “to send the strongest of signals.”
“We believe that countries should play by the rules,” he said, stressing the importance of the “rules-based order.”
Like the U.S., France and Britain do not themselves have territorial claims in the resource-rich South China Sea, a vital thoroughfare for international trade.
As China has moved military assets to and around the islands, reefs and artificial islands it claims as Chinese, the U.S. has led the pushback.

China is engaged in disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei over resource-rich areas of the South China Sea, an area that includes some of the world’s most important shipping trade corridors. 

A recent U.S. “freedom of navigation” operation in the area saw two U.S. Navy warships sail within 12 nautical miles of islands claimed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan in the Paracel group. 

Their presence drew sharp criticism from Beijing although Vietnam, which accuses China of illegally occupying the islands, welcomed the U.S. move.
In response to steps taken by China to back up its territorial claims by deploying military assets, the Pentagon has rescinded an invitation to China to participate in a major international military exercise in the Pacific this summer.
While China is excluded from the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises – after participating in the last two at the invitation of the Obama administration – Vietnam has been invited to take part for the first time since they began in 1971.
Other participants among the 26 nations include several further countries locked in territorial disputes with China in the South and East China Seas, including Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.

‘Much larger consequences’
Speaking at the security dialogue, which is hosted by the International Institute For Strategic Studies, Mattis had strong words for China.
He noted that Beijing has deployed anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles, electronic jammers in the South China Sea and recently landed long-range bombers on an island in the Paracel group.
“Despite China’s claims to the contrary, the placement of these weapons systems is tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion,” Mattis said, adding that it also contravened assurances Xi Jinping gave to the U.S. during a visit to the White House in 2015.
During a question-and-answer session Mattis described the decision to disinvite China from “the world’s largest naval exercise” as a “relatively small consequence” of its behavior, but warned there could be “much larger consequences in the future” if it continues down its path. 

He did not elaborate.
Militarizing features in the contested region, he said, is “not going to be endorsed in the world” and is not going to enhance China’s standing.
“There are consequences that will continue to come home to roost, so to speak, with China if they do not find the way to work more collaboratively with all of the nations who have interest” in the region.
Beijing’s defense ministry early this year invited Mattis to visit during the first half of the year, in what would be the first visit by a U.S. defense secretary in four years. 

Speaking to reporters as he flew home from Singapore, Mattis said he still planned to go to China, despite the tensions over the South China Sea.

Sina Delenda Est

Great powers stepping up on China
By Peter Hartcher

One nation after another at a weekend conference lined up to denounce China for breaking international law and to reassert "the rules-based order", but a curious pattern quickly emerged.
The further a country from the front line of China's relentless expansion into the South China Sea, the tougher it talked.
The countries who are actually losing their claimed territories to China's military forces were much more diplomatic. 

So diplomatic, in fact, that they tiptoed carefully around the subject and had little or nothing to say.
One of the striking new responses to China's unchecked gains in the region is the rising protest from Europe. 

The annual Shangri-la security dialogue in Singapore heard stern words from the defence ministers of Britain, France and Germany on the weekend. 

All three declared that they will uphold "the rule of law" in the South China Sea.
France and Britain said that they were stepping up naval movements through the zone: "No less than five French ships sailed in this area in 2017," said French Minister for the Armed Forces Florence Parly. 

"European ships are mobilising more widely."
Britain's Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson quipped: "We have been pleased to commit three Royal Navy ships to this region in the last year, although hearing France committed five, I think I have to commit to six" this year.
Parly said that Britain and France, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, were sending naval ships to visit Singapore next week and then into "territorial waters" in the South China Sea. 

They would also be carrying German naval observers.

US warns of 'consequences' if China continues 'intimidation and coercion'
She said that the French vessels expected to come under challenge, just as the US navy was challenged by China's navy last week when they sailed within 12 nautical miles of Woody Island in the Paracels group. 

This is the island, also claimed by Vietnam, where China landed heavy bombers last month.
"At some point a stern voice intrudes into the transponder and tells us to sail away from supposedly ‘territorial waters’,” said Parly. 

“But our commander then calmly replies that he will sail forth, because these, under international law, are indeed international waters.”
Why does Europe care? 

Because, said Britain's Williamson, the commercial shipping artery that runs through the South China Sea is incredibly important: "If there's a problem there, there's a problem for the whole world."
Parly said: "We do it because under international law we know that practice can become accepted. If a fait accompli is not questioned it can be opened. We place ourselves in the position of persistent objector to any claim of de facto sovereignty."

HMS Sutherland

India, a fast-rising power, is a lot closer to the hot zone than Europe, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out a policy that brings it even closer.
Modi described India's interests as defined by the Indo-Pacific, "from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas". 

A vast span that includes, of course, the South China Sea, which he mentioned specifically.
When Modi spoke of the problems in the region, he didn't name China but told the conference that "above all, we see assertion of power over recourse to international norms". 

He called for a "free, open, inclusive region". 

He noted the importance of freedom of navigation.
In competition with China's narrative of its history and values, Modi spelled out India's own historical relationship to the ocean over thousands of years and asserted the "foundation of our civilisational ethos – of pluralism, co-existence, openness and dialogue. The ideals of democracy that define us as a nation also shape the way we engage the world".

French Defence Minister Florence Parly.

Britain's Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson

Narendra Modi, India's Prime Minister, delivers the keynote at the Shangri-la dialogue.

And in a departure from India's long passivity, the Indian leader described an active military outreach: "Indian Armed Forces, especially our navy, are building partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region for peace and security, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief."
While the great powers stepped forward to decry the breakdown of the rules-based order, the front-line casualties were very quiet. 

China's island-building and militarisation has hit the Philippines and Vietnam harder than any other countries, and in past years they were outspoken about it.
The defence ministers of both countries spoke at the conference. Both avoided any mention of their territorial claims. 

They avoided touching on China's forcible island-building and militarisation of the disputed maritime space.
One of their fellow ASEAN members, Indonesia's Defence Minister, Ryamizard Ryacudu, even went so far as to say that there was no problem. 

Indonesia makes no claim to the island groups claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. 

But it has had its own clash with China over the Natuna Islands at the southern end of the South China Sea.
Ryamizard dismissed any possibility of armed conflict in the region. 

"I talked about factual threats," he said in response to a question on the subject. 

As for conventional war or strategic threat, "I don't see any potential threat. Indonesia sees the most factual threat as terrorism."
And the traditional leading power in the Pacific? 

Speaking at the same conference, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis was blunt on China's recent deployment of cruise missiles to the disputed territories of the South China Sea: "Despite China’s claims to the contrary, the placement of these weapons systems is tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion.”
It seems to have worked. 

It seems that the Philippines and Vietnam have been intimidated into quiescence. 

And while Mattis talked tough and threatened China with unspecified "consequences", the force of his message was soon undercut by his President.
When the hundreds of military chiefs and defence officials who'd heard Mattis' words on the Saturday woke on the Sunday, they saw an overnight tweet from Donald Trump. 

Trump noted Mattis' charge that China had deployed "coercion and intimidation" and he added: "Very surprised that China would be doing this?"
The US has suffered a loss of credibility and, with antics like this, why would anyone take it seriously? 

South East Asia is giving up on America and yielding to China.
More distant great powers have noticed. 

They are worried but none is prepared to stand in China's way. 

China has launched more tonnage of new warships in just the last four years than the entire French navy can boast in totality, according to the International Institute of International Affairs. 

Beijing continues to get its way.

Mattis accuses China of intimidation and coercion in South China Sea

Mattis takes hard line on China in Singapore speech

By Joshua Berlinger

Singapore -- US Defense Secretary James Mattis accused China of "intimidation and coercion" in the Indo-Pacific and declared that the United States does not plan to abandon its role in the region during a speech Saturday in Singapore.
"Make no mistake: America is in the Indo-Pacific to stay. This is our priority theater," Mattis said.
Mattis specifically called out Beijing's militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea, home to some of the world's busiest sea lanes.
"We are aware China will face an array of challenges and opportunities in coming years, we are prepared to support China's choices if they promote long-term peace and prosperity for all in this dynamic region," Mattis said.
"Yet China's policy in the South China Sea stands in stark contrast to the openness our strategy promotes. It calls into question China's broader goals," he said.
Mattis and some of his counterparts from the Asia Pacific region are in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual gathering of security officials, contractors and academics in the Asian city-state.
The South China Sea has been a hot topic of discussion during the summit's opening, amid ongoing attempts by China to assert its dominance in the region.
China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei all have competing claims to the territory. 

But while other countries have built military features and artificial islands, none come close to matching Beijing's in scale or ambition, which stretch hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan.
In May, the Chinese military landed nuclear-capable bombers on its artificial islands for the first time.
Weeks earlier, US intelligence announced there was a high possibility Beijing had deployed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles as part of ongoing military exercises.
"China's militarization of artificial features in the South China Sea includes the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles, electronic jammers and, more recently, the landing of bomber aircraft at woody island," said Mattis, confirming previous intelligence reports.
"Despite China's claims to the contrary, the placement of these weapon systems is tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion," he said.
On Sunday, two US Navy warships sailed close to a handful of disputed islands claimed by China in the Paracel island chain, east of Vietnam, in a move that drew the ire of Beijing.
"I think it goes to a fundamental disconnect between the way the international tribunals have looked at these waters -- these waters look to us as free and open waters," said Mattis, addressing last week's freedom of navigation operation directly.
"We do not do freedom of navigation for America alone, we do freedom of navigation for all nations... we do not see it as a militarization by going through what has traditionally been international water space. We see it as affirmation of the rules-based international order."
Though Mattis appeared to draw a firm line between the actions of the US and China, he insisted the US is not asking other countries in the region to choose sides.
"China should and does have a voice in shaping the international system, and all of China's neighbors have a voice in shaping China's role," said Mattis, adding that he would travel to Beijing soon "at China's invitation."
China claims its actions in the South China Sea are entirely peaceful and meant to protect its citizens and trading interests.

Korean summit
Mattis only briefly mentioned the status of the Korean Peninsula in his formal remarks, which come just hours after Donald Trump announced that he will hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12, just days after Mattis departs.
The Defense Secretary stuck to fairly common talking points from Washington: highlighting the importance of US alliances and the ultimate goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Much of the speech was focused on longer-term challenges in the region known as the Indo-Pacific, a phrase used throughout India and Southeast Asia and recently embraced by the Trump administration.
He also mentioned the importance of upholding US alliances and partnerships in the region, specifically highlighting Australia, New Zealand and India. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the keynote opening speech this year, also emphasizing the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Mattis also touched upon the status of Taiwan, an issue bound to ruffle feathers in Beijing. 

China views the island as a renegade province and seeks its eventual reunification with the mainland.
Beijing has been accused of ramping up the pressure on Taipei in recent weeks, with Taiwan accusing using its diplomatic and economic weight to isolate the island from the international community. 

It has also punished business for recognizing Taiwan as independent country.
"We oppose all unilateral efforts to alter the status quo and will continue to insist any resolution of differences accord with the will of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait," he said.
Mattis delivered the keynote address at the event last year.

Axis of Evil

U.S. MILITARY PREPARED TO FACE CHINA AND NORTH KOREA AHEAD OF MAJOR ASIA CONFERENCE
BY TOM O'CONNOR

The Pentagon said it was prepared to take on both China and North Korea as Defense Secretary James Mattis headed to Singapore for a major international security conference.
Marine Corps Lieutenant General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., joint staff director at the Defense Department, told reporters Thursday that, although he would not compare the threats posed to the U.S. by China and North Korea, "we are prepared for both." 

The two Asia-Pacific allies have drifted apart in recent years as Pyongyang accelerated its nuclear program, but China remains a staunch opponent of expanding U.S. military activity in the region and especially in the South China Sea.
"We take both threats seriously. Certainly, China has a much larger nuclear capability and you've got to take that into account, China has a much larger economic engine that you have to take into account so the threats are very different," McKenzie told reporters at the Pentagon.
"When you consider North Korea, the first thing you look at is their capricious and unpredictable behavior spanning back several decades," he added.
An H-6H bomber shoots off flares during the Golden Dart-2018 aerial combat competition, April 18, 2018. China recently landed one of its H-6 bomber variants on disputed islands in the South China Sea, prompting the U.S. to disinvite it from a major upcoming naval exercise.

Both countries are likely to be high on the agenda of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual Shangri-La Dialogue, scheduled to begin Friday. 

Among those set to speak at the event are Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Singapore's President Halimah Yacob along with the defense ministers of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, Qatar, the Seychelles, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the U.K, the U.S. and Vietnam.
The nations involved shared U.S. concerns about Chinese activity in the South China Sea, where Washington has accused Beijing of militarizing a set of disputed islands to enforce vast territorial claims. 

Mattis said Tuesday he planned a "steady drumbeat" of freedom of navigation and other naval operations in the contested waters and would "confront what we believe is out of step with international law," according to the Associated Press.
Among other experts and top military officials, Chinese Lieutenant General He Lei, Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhou and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo were also set to make an appearance at the Shangri La Dialogue. 

China has countered U.S. claims by asserting sovereignty over the disputed islands and arguing any military installations there were necessary to maintain self-defense against a much more powerful U.S. military posture.

A map shows construction on the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea as of January 23, 2018.

When asked about the U.S. military's capability to battle China on the South China Sea islands, McKenzie told journalists that "the U.S. military has a lot of experience in the Western Pacific taking down small islands," a reference to Pacific theater against the Japanese Empire during World War II.
The U.S. defeated Japan in 1945 and subsequently occupied the southern half of the Korean Peninsula, the northern half of which was taken by fellow Allied power and future Cold War foe, the Soviet Union. 

The U.S. and the Soviet Union formed opposing satellite states that went to war in the 1950s, creating the current hostility between the U.S. and North Korea, which has since developed nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
North Korea's latest and youngest supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, has offered to denuclearize and meet face-to-face with President Donald Trump in another Singapore summit set for June 12. 

Trump canceled the talks last week after a diplomatic spat between U.S. and North Korean officials, but has suggested they may be back on as top North Korean official Kim Yong Chol met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York.

Sina Delenda Est

Mattis Says China’s Militarization of Man-Made Islands Unacceptable
By William Ide
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis speaks at the 16th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, June 3, 2017.

SINGAPORE — U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis applauded China’s efforts to work with the international community on North Korea at an annual security forum in Singapore Saturday. 

But when it came to the South China Sea, he called China’s ongoing militarization of man-made islands there and its disregard for international order, unacceptable.
“We cannot accept Chinese actions that impinge on the interests of the international community, undermining the rules-based order that has benefited all countries here today (at the forum), including, and especially China,” Mattis said, in a speech to delegates and the media at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
He said that while competition between the world’s two largest economies was bound to occur, conflict is not inevitable.
“Artificial island construction and indisputable militarization of facilities on features in international waters undermines regional stability,” he said, noting that China’s military buildup of the man-made beachheads differed from what other countries had done.
Beijing’s approach is different not only in terms of the nature of weaponization on the artificial islands, Mattis said, but for “China’s disregard for international law, it’s contempt for other nation’s interests and its efforts to dismiss nonadversarial resolution of issues.”
People sit in front of the TV screen showing a news program reporting about North Korea's missile firing, at Seoul Train Station in Seoul, South Korea, May 29, 2017.
North Korea a priority
Since coming to office, Donald Trump has made North Korea a top priority, and in his speech, Mattis echoed concerns the administration has about the clear and present danger the North poses to the region and beyond.
“Coupled with reckless proclamations, the current North Korean program signals a clear intent to acquire nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, including those of intercontinental range, that pose direct and immediate threats to our regional allies, our partners, and all the world,” he said.
His tough remarks dispelled speculation that the administration was keeping quiet about the South China Sea in exchange for China’s cooperation in dealing with Pyongyang. 

Mattis said the interests of the United States allies would not be used as bargaining chips.
Ambassadors to the United Nations raise hands in a Security Council resolution vote to sanction North Korea at U.N. headquarters in New York, June 2, 2017.

New sanctions, new diplomacy
Without elaborating, the defense secretary said countries are working on new, enhanced sanctions and diplomatic efforts to put more pressure on North Korea. 

In addition to words and support, however, he said action was needed as well — from all parties.
“The Trump administration is encouraged by China’s renewed commitment to work with the international community toward denuclearization,” he said. 

“Ultimately we believe that China will come to recognize North Korea as a strategic liability and not an asset. A liability inciting increased disharmony and causing peace-loving populations in the region to increase defense spending.”
While relations between Pyongyang and Beijing have grown increasingly frayed in recent years under the administration of Kim Jong-Un, China is still North Korea’s biggest ally and supporter. Analysts argue that Beijing does not want the issue to be resolved because of the possibility that it could lead to a unified Korea and put the United States right on its northeastern doorstep.

Australian Leader Warns China Against Trying to Bully Neighbors

Turnbull sticks up for smaller nations at security conference, seeks to reassure Asia about U.S. engagement under Trump

By David Tweed and Keith Zhai

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull warned China against abusing its growing influence in Asia, while attempting to reassure the region’s leaders that the U.S. remained engaged under Donald Trump.
Turnbull told dozens of defense officials and military leaders at the Shangri-La security forum in Singapore that China shouldn’t bully smaller states into taking its side as its growing might challenges decades of U.S. dominance. 

The prime minister said China had gained the most from the region’s peace and stability and therefore had the most to lose if it were disrupted.

Turnbull at the Shangri-La security forum in Singapore, on June 2.
“A coercive China would find its neighbors resenting demands they cede their autonomy and strategic space, and look to counterweight Beijing’s power by bolstering alliances and partnerships, between themselves and especially with the United States,” Turnbull said in a keynote address Friday. He said a secure world was one in which “the big fish respect the little fish and shrimps.”
Australia has for decades walked a fine line between preserving economic ties with China, its largest trading partner, and the U.S., its most important ally. 

The speech -- Turnbull’s most high-profile foreign policy address since becoming prime minister in 2015 -- saw him advocating for smaller Asian countries that might be reluctant to openly criticize China.
“This was a very good speech -- very realistic,” Malaysia Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein told Bloomberg as delegates filed out of the Shangri-La Hotel. 

“This needed to be said. Very pragmatic. I told him that after the speech.”
The Chinese sent only a low-level delegation to the event, the first time since 2012 the country hadn’t been represented by an officer of at least the rank of a four-star general.

Members of the delegation were observed gesticulating and complaining loudly outside the ballroom after the speech.
One official member of the delegation expressed surprise at what they saw as Turnbull’s harsh remarks and “sucking up” to the U.S. 

The official said the remarks were unfair coming so soon after Li Keqiang’s visit in March, during which the two sides announced several trade deals.
Turnbull also sought to reassure regional leaders of the U.S.’s commitment to Asia in the “America First” era. 

Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes 11 Pacific Rim nations, and the Paris climate-change accord, had sown doubts among those who had invested in the U.S.-led world order.
While Turnbull called the TPP and Paris decisions “disappointing,” he said nations “should take care not to rush to interpret an intent to engage on different terms as one not to engage at all.”
“The United States’ own interests in the Indo-Pacific demand more U.S. engagement, not less,” he said.

Mattis Speech
U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis was set to address the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday, where he is expected to offer reassurance that the U.S. has no intention of giving up its role as a guarantor of regional peace and stability.
“We have a good friend and partner in Beijing and a steadfast friend and ally in Washington,” Turnbull said, rejecting the view that Australia had to choose sides. +“Our foreign policy is determined in Australia’s national interest and Australia’s alone.”
Turnbull’s relationship with Trump got off to a bad start in January, after Trump abruptly ended a phone call with the prime minister that he described as “the worst” among the five world leaders he spoke to that day. 

They appeared to bury the hatchet last month when they dined aboard the USS Intrepid museum in New York, and Trump said they “would remain friends for a very long time.”
Australia is concerned about Beijing’s military build-up in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. 

China, whose actions have also worried Southeast Asian nations with competing claims such as Vietnam and the Philippines, has ignored an international arbitration court ruling rejecting its claims to more than 80 percent of the waters.
China should not try to take advantage of its growing economic and military might to attempt to marginalize the contribution of other nations in the region “particularly the United States,” Turnbull said.

‘Rules-Based Structure’
“If we are to maintain the dynamism of the region, then we must preserve the rules-based structure that has enabled it thus far,” Turnbull said. 

“This means cooperation, not unilateral actions to seize or create territory or militarize disputed areas.”
Turnbull said one way China could show its good intentions would be to curb North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. 

“China has gained the most from the peace and harmony in our region, and consequently it has the most to lose if it is threatened.”
For some, Turnbull’s criticism of China’s didn’t go far enough.
“Very disappointing,” said Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, and a former president of the United Nations Security Council. 

“He was trying to be diplomatic towards the Chinese, but he should have been more direct.”

Chinese Peril

How China’s Growing Naval Fleet Is Shaping Global Politics

By David Tweed and Adrian Leung

Ship by ship, port by port, China has over the past two decades been assembling one of the essential engines of global power: a modern navy capable of projecting force far from home.
China’s “blue water” navy -- and how to respond to it -- will be on the minds of Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis and others gathering in Singapore this weekend for Asia’s most high-profile security conference, the Shangri-La Dialogue. 

From the East China Sea to the Horn of Africa, the growing presence of Chinese warships is already shaping world affairs, a trend that will only accelerate.
“By 2030, the existence of a global Chinese navy will be an important, influential and fundamental fact of international politics,” said Patrick Cronin, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Asia-Pacific security program. 

The U.S. and its allies “need to begin preparing for a ‘risen China,’ rather than a rising China.”

By one measure, the People’s Liberation Army has already caught up with the U.S. -- Asia’s preeminent sea power since World War II. 

China had 183 cruisers, destroyers, small surface ships and submarines last year, compared with 188 for the U.S. 

That’s according to a CNAS analysis of data supplied by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organizes the Shangri-La meeting.
CNAS projected in a March report that the PLA Navy will deploy 260 such ships by the end of the next decade, surpassing an estimated 199 for the U.S. 

That growth has helped fuel calls for a U.S. shipbuilding surge, with the Navy’s operations chief, Admiral John Richardson, saying earlier this month in Singapore that America needed to build more warships -- and fast.
While Donald Trump has called for increasing the U.S. fleet by more than 25 percent, his first budget proposal released last week included funds for only two small Littoral Combat Ships.

To be sure, projecting naval power across oceans often means aircraft carriers. 

And deploying carrier strike groups around the world -- like the 10 the U.S. now operates -- requires a network of overseas bases. 

China lacks both. 

Frigates and other small vessels are expected to comprise the bulk of the country’s future fleet.
Xi Jinping is nonetheless making preparations to be able to project force into the Indian and Pacific oceans, which surround the country’s growing economic interests in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. 

China launched its first domestically built aircraft carrier in April, the second of as many as six such vessels.
The country is also developing its first overseas base -- Chinese officials call it a “support facility” -- in the East African country of Djibouti, where the French and U.S. also have military installations. Such opportunities are expected to grow as China helps develop ports around the world under Xi’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road trade-and-infrastructure program.

How to respond to China’s growing naval power has preoccupied many of the admirals, ministers and defense contractors who are expected to begin assembling Friday at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore. 

Chinese defense spending is on track to exceed the rest of East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania combined this year, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
China’s neighbors are now expanding their own fleets. 

This year alone, India, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand have announced plans to build or acquire submarines. 

India aims to add 60 warships over the next decade to amassing a 200-vessel fleet. 

The proliferation of submarines prompted Singapore’s naval chief, Rear Admiral Lai Chung Han, to call for a code of conduct earlier this month to reduce the risk of accidents.