Chinese Peril

China's blueprint for global dominance

By Dave Lawler

By the time China's ambitions of displacing the U.S. as the dominant global power were widely understood, Beijing's success had already begun to feel inevitable.
Why it matters: The Chinese Communist Party has exploited America's desire to "sleep through difficulties," writes Jonathan Ward in the new book, "China's Vision of Victory."
He contends that the outcome of the battle for global supremacy remains to be determined, but that the U.S. must quickly and dramatically change course in order to prevail.
The longstanding U.S. strategy of engaging economically while hedging against China's rise militarily was a mistake of historic proportions, essentially "putting wind at the back" of a burgeoning rival, Ward told me in an interview.
In his book, Ward traces China's vision of global preeminence back decades.
He says Xi Jinping merely "took the mask off" in recent years.
Ward, whose research included poring over since-closed Communist Party archives, adds that "the greatest thing China’s given us is a very clear image of what they’re going to do.”
The big picture: The objective is dominance in global affairs on a longer-term time frame.
"So, ideologically the idea is to restore their position — restore because they say they used to be the world’s supreme power and now they’re going to return to that — by the year 2049, which is the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China."
To that end, China is endeavoring to "produce national champions in every sector" and dominate emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and 5G networks.
The Belt and Road network of ports, roads and railways, meanwhile, is intended to impose the "coercive force of the Chinese economy... to build strategic beachheads" around the world.
"In the 19th century we'd understand that as empire building," Ward says.
China's government is mobilizing its economy, its military and its citizens toward the mission of "national rejuvenation."
Ward describes it as "the most comprehensive effort assembled in human history towards a very singular goal.”
The bottom line: “Essentially it's full steam ahead on pretty much every human activity, from space to seabed, with the objective of becoming the world’s leader in all of these things. And with that, you build a foundation of power that is absolutely beyond what can be achieved by any other nation."
“I think it’s easy to understand their strategy. What’s hard is that it’s a good strategy.”
But, but, but: the U.S. "retains enormous advantages in terms of economic and military power, a global alliance system, and leadership in the innumerable institutions built under the Pax Americana."
The consensus that China will replace the U.S. as the world's largest economy is premised on the continuation of the status quo.
Ward argues that "we have to start thinking the unthinkable" now, in terms of unwinding economic ties to China and shifting supply chains to politically friendly countries.
“These are tough things but this is where great minds should be applied," Ward told me.
"How do we retain these economic advantages, the technological advantages, the military advantages. Let’s face it, we’re the ones who’ve already won. We’re just giving it away."
The contests that will define China's success or failure are underway now, and will be decided over the next ten years.
Zoom out: “A contest between the United States and China will be a close-run thing," Ward writes. "However, a contest between China and the democratic world will be impossible for China.”
“In many ways Chinese global strategy is actually focused on Europe.".
China knew the U.S. would eventually wake up to its "problem in the Pacific," but "Europe is a world away from the security questions in Asia.”
“If you’re going to have problems with the U.S., where do you go next? To Europe. That’s where they can harvest technology, it’s where they can harvest education, it’s where they can build their technological advantages. You have to do that by engaging with somebody who’s higher up the value chain, so if they’re going to see that erode in the United States they have to double down on it in Europe."
"That’s the Chinese approach. And they have to convince the Europeans they’re benign. ... What you have to think about in Europe is, what would it mean for your superpower partner to be defeated by authoritarian China?"
The solution is the democratic world consolidating, integrating, pushing back, cutting China off from the things that will enable the continued rise toward their vision of power.
What to watch: "What will it mean for the prevailing norms in international relations to be decided by an authoritarian state where freedoms of speech, press, and assembly are extinguished for its citizens and those under its power?” 
Ward writes that if we lose the next decade, we'll soon find out.
I asked him where the U.S. will find the political will needed to truly embrace this challenge.
He said to watch out for "Sputnik moments."

Six former top US generals issue grave warning to ban Huawei

New Zealand's membership of the Five Eyes group should be reconsidered given its close relationship with Beijing.

By Ben Westcott

Six retired US military leaders have issued a statement calling on America's allies to ban Chinese technology giants from outfitting their 5G networks, citing "grave concerns" over security.
The statement, released Wednesday, was signed by six highly-respected, retired US military officials, including former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe James Stavridis.
"As military leaders who have commanded US and allied troops around the world, we have grave concerns about a future where a Chinese-developed 5G network is widely adopted among our allies and partners," the statement began.
The joint statement comes as New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern refuted suggestions that Chinese technology company Huawei had been banned in her country.
Huawei is one of China's largest technology companies and in recent years has become one of the most widely-used providers of super-fast 5G network technology globally.

"I've seen some suggestion that Huawei products have been banned in New Zealand, that's simply not the case," said Ardern, during an interview broadcast on Chinese state media CGTN.
"We already have Huawei products in New Zealand and Huawei already operates in New Zealand," she added.
The Trump administration has been pushing hard for diplomatic partners to remove Huawei technology from their networks, claiming the company is too close to the Chinese government.
New Zealand is a longtime ally of the United States and a member of their exclusive Five Eyes intelligence sharing community, along with Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada.
A former US government analyst Peter Mattis said in 2018 that New Zealand's membership of the group should be reconsidered given its close relationship with Beijing.
In their statement, Wednesday, the US military leaders highlighted three areas of concern over a growing presence of Chinese technology in international networks -- espionage, risks to future military operations and undermining democracy and human rights.
"The Chinese Cyber Security Law and other national strategies like 'military-civil fusion' mean that nothing Chinese firms do can be independent of the state. Firms must support the law enforcement, intelligence, and national security interests of the Chinese Communist Party," the statement said.
They claimed calls for the US intelligence community to produce evidence, or a "smoking gun," to justify calls for a ban "misunderstand the challenge at hand."

"The onus should instead be on Beijing to explain why it is prudent for countries to rely on Chinese telecommunications technology when Beijing's current practices threaten the integrity of personal data, government secrets, military operations, and liberal governance," the statement said.
New Zealand's Ardern wrapped up a two-day visit to China at the beginning of this week, a visit which was intended to shore up somewhat-rocky relations between the two nominally friendly nations.
It was a decision by New Zealand's security services to recommend against the use of Huawei technology which led to the reported rift.
But when asked during her interview with Chinese state media if US objections to Huawei would influence New Zealand policy, Ardern said no.
"New Zealand has not been pressured in that regard but even, regardless, it would make no difference. We determine our policy and our position on these matters," she said.

China Threat to Telecoms Cited in EU Parliament Draft Resolution

• European assembly plans to warn about risks to 5G networks
• Initiative reflects growing Western concerns about Chinese Huawei spying

By Jonathan Stearns and Alexander Weber

The European Parliament plans to add its voice to growing concerns in the Western world about alleged security threats posed by Chinese telecommunications companies such as Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp.
The European Union assembly will stress the need for the bloc to protect the next generation of wireless networks, known as 5G, from intruders and to bolster cybersecurity defenses in general, according to the draft of a resolution slated for a vote on Tuesday in Strasbourg, France.
In the draft, the 28-nation Parliament “expresses deep concern about the recent allegations that 5G equipment developed by Chinese companies may have embedded backdoors that would allow manufacturers and authorities to have unauthorized access to private and personal data and telecommunications from the EU.”
The assembly “is equally concerned about the potential presence of major vulnerabilities in the 5G equipment developed by these manufacturers if they were to be installed when rolling out 5G networks in the coming years,” according to the text.
The EU’s increasing alarm about technology-related security risks from China follows U.S. revelations that Huawei enables Chinese espionage and calls for European allies to avoid partnering with the company.
Western jitters have mushroomed since a 2017 Chinese law requiring organizations and citizens to support national-security investigations.
The draft EU Parliament resolution, drawn up by four of the assembly’s main political groups including the No. 1 Christian Democrats and second-ranking Socialists, says European authorities should develop a certification system for 5G equipment to enhance its security.
“If there’s the slightest suspicion that Trojan horses end up in critical infrastructure due to Chinese technology, all alarm bells should ring,” Markus Ferber, a German member of the assembly’s Christian Democratic faction, said by email on Monday. 

“The EU has to make sure it becomes more independent from third countries when it comes to infrastructure and central technologies.”

Evil Company

Huawei terror: New Zealand bars Chinese firm on national security fears

BBC News

New Zealand has become the latest country to block a proposal to use telecoms equipment made by China's Huawei because of national security concerns.
Spark New Zealand wanted to use Huawei equipment in its 5G mobile network.
However, a NZ government security agency said the deal would bring significant risks to national security.
The move is part of a growing push against the involvement of Chinese technology firms on security grounds.
5G networks are being built in several countries and will form the next significant wave of mobile infrastructure.
Huawei, the world's biggest producer of telecoms equipment, has faced resistance from foreign governments over the risk that its technology could be used for espionage.
Telecoms firm Spark New Zealand planned to use equipment from the Chinese firm in its 5G network.
The head of NZ's Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) told Spark the proposal "would , if implemented, raise significant national security risks", the company said.
Intelligence services minister Andrew Little said Spark could work with the agency to reduce that risk.
"As the GCSB has noted, this is an ongoing process. We will actively address any concerns and work together to find a way forward," Huawei said.

What other countries have concerns?
The move follows a decision by Australia to block Huawei and Chinese firm ZTE from providing 5G technology for the country's wireless networks on national security grounds.
The US and UK have raised concerns with Huawei, and the firm has been scrutinised in Germany, Japan and Korea.
Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government has been trying to persuade wireless providers to avoid using equipment from Huawei.
In the UK, a security committee report in July warned that it had "only limited assurance" that Huawei's telecoms gear posed no threat to national security.
Only one country is standing by Huawei: Papua New Guinea said this week it would go ahead with an agreement for Huawei to build its internet infrastructure.
The Pacific nation has seen a surge in investment from China over the past decade.

What are the fears?
Experts say foreign governments are increasingly worried about the risk of espionage by China, given the close ties between companies and the state.
Tom Uren, visiting fellow in the International Cyber Policy Centre at Australia's Strategic Policy Institute, said the Chinese government had "clearly demonstrated intent over many years to steal information".
"The Chinese state has engaged in a lot of cyber and other espionage and intellectual property theft," he said.
Links between firms and the government have fueled concerns that China may attempt to "leverage state-linked companies to be able to enable their espionage operations", Mr Uren said.
Those concerns were exacerbated by new laws introduced last year that required Chinese organisations assist in national intelligence efforts.
The laws enable the Chinese state to compel people and companies to assist it, Mr Uren said.
The combination of new rules and a history of espionage have increased the perceived danger of using companies like Huawei and ZTE in critical national infrastructure.
"It's hard to argue that they don't represent an elevated risk," Mr Uren added.