Chinese Peril

U.S. Recalls Top Diplomats From Latin America as Worries Rise Over China’s Influence

By Edward Wong

Jean Manes, ambassador to El Salvador, is one of three diplomats in Latin America who have been recalled to Washington.

WASHINGTON — The United States has recalled three chiefs of mission from Latin American nations that cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of recognizing China.
The move comes as American officials have expressed growing unease over China’s rising influence in the region.
The diplomats, who represent the United States in the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama, will meet with leaders in Washington “to discuss ways in which the United States can support strong, independent, democratic institutions throughout Central America and the Caribbean,” a spokeswoman for the State Department, Heather Nauert, said in a written statement on Friday.
For decades, Taiwan and China have competed for recognition. 

In 1979, the United States switched its support and officially established sovereign relations with China, and many other countries followed. 

But Washington has supported any decisions by nations to continue recognizing Taiwan, a self-governing island that China wants to bring under Communist Party rule.
In recent years, China has had success in courting Taiwan’s diplomatic partners. 

Only 17 nations recognize Taiwan; outside the Vatican and Swaziland, they are all islands in the Pacific and the Caribbean or countries in Latin America.
American officials have expressed growing concern over the shift. 

The United States sells arms to Taiwan and maintains a diplomatic presence there, called the American Institute in Taiwan, now housed in a new $250 million compound. 

American officials see Taiwan’s de facto independence as an important hedge against Chinese dominance in the Asia-Pacific region — what the United States now calls the Indo-Pacific as it tries to strengthen ties with South Asian nations to balance against China.
Last month, El Salvador severed ties with Taiwan, prompting the White House to accuse China of “apparent interference” in El Salvador’s domestic politics. 

American officials fear that the four nations in Central America that still recognize Taiwan — Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua — could soon follow. 

Last May, Burkina Faso switched recognition to China, leaving Swaziland as the lone holdout in Africa.
In June 2017, Panama cut ties with Taiwan, which surprised the United States government. 

The American ambassador to Panama at the time, John Feeley, said he learned about the switch from the president, Juan Carlos Varela, only an hour or so before Varela announced it, and only because he had called Varela to discuss an unrelated matter.
Mr. Feeley, who left his post in March and is now a consultant for Univision, said in an interview on Saturday that the recall of top American diplomats was significant.
The diplomats returning to Washington are Robin Bernstein, ambassador to the Dominican Republic; Jean Manes, ambassador to El Salvador; and Roxanne Cabral, the chargé d’affaires in Panama. 

A State Department official said they would return to their posts by Sept. 14.

Wang Yi, center, China’s foreign minister, and Hugo Martinez, right, El Salvador’s foreign minister, at a conference in Santiago, Chile. Last month, El Salvador severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of recognizing China.

The move “is an appropriate and serious signal by the U.S. government to those three countries and to the Chinese government that it is now reviewing the implications of the diplomatic switch and is worried that U.S. interests could be jeopardized,” Mr. Feeley said.
“My sense is that they will be most focused on the issue of industrial and commercial espionage and the possibility of Beijing using its embassies to expand that activity in those countries and the Caribbean Basin,” he added.
China is now the world’s second-largest economy and is expected to overtake the United States as the largest one in 10 to 15 years.
It is difficult for any nation, especially a small one, to decide not to recognize the sovereignty of China.
China and Taiwan have long engaged in what some observers call “checkbook diplomacy” to woo countries by offering aid or other incentives. 

China’s financial packages have increased in recent years, especially as it has promoted infrastructure projects abroad and related loans and contracts as part of what it calls its Belt and Road Initiative.
Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China, said on Saturday that the recall was “heavy handed.” 

The United States should not be surprised as Latin American governments push back against American requests, he added, when President Trump has continued to alienate the people of Latin America.
“Trump has openly and systematically offended Latin American countries and their people,” Mr. Guajardo wrote in an email. 

“He labels us as rapists and criminals, has never traveled to the region as president, has deported and separated families, and threatened to cut all sort of aid. China comes with an offer of friendship and economic development (albeit one that I don’t think will pan out). Why the surprise?”
The United States has yet to fill some ambassador posts in the region, including those in Mexico and Panama, Mr. Guajardo noted, whereas China has assigned ambassadors in all Latin American nations with which it has diplomatic relations.
“Save a few countries in Latin America, the region as a whole has a historical preference for the U.S. as the main ally,” he said.

“This changed when Trump assumed the presidency. It was his call, his choice, to turn away from the region.”
China has grown more strident over the issue of Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen, a strong critic of Beijing, became president of Taiwan in May 2016. 

Chinese officials have worked to erase any recognition by corporations of Taiwan’s sovereignty. 

For example, they successfully pressured international airlines this summer, including those in the United States, to list just “Taipei,” a city designation, in their booking systems rather than phrases that included “Taiwan,” as was the case for decades.
Last month, Ms. Tsai made state visits to Belize and Paraguay to try to strengthen ties with those nations.

Chinese Peril

U.S. and India, Wary of China, Agree to Strengthen Military Ties

By Maria Abi-Habib

From left, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, with India’s foreign and defense ministers, Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman, in New Delhi on Thursday.

NEW DELHI — The United States and India signed an agreement Thursday to pave the way for New Delhi to buy advanced American weaponry and to share sensitive military technology, strengthening their military partnership as both powers warily eye the rise of China.
“Today’s fruitful discussion illustrated the value of continued cooperation between the world’s two largest democracies,” said Jim Mattis, the United States defense secretary, at a news conference on Thursday after the agreement was signed. 

“We will work together for a free and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”
The countries also promised to hold joint land, sea and air military exercises in India next year. 

In the past, they have held joint exercises outside the country.
But despite the friendly handshakes and flattering remarks exchanged as Mr. Mattis and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, met with their counterparts in New Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, the two counties remain deeply skeptical of each other.
The United States is worried about how willing India will be to openly counter China as the Chinese expand their influence in the waters between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. 

It is also unhappy about India’s reluctance to cut trade relations with Iran.
India views the Trump administration as erratic, and it is troubled by the United States’ recent barriers to trade, which threaten to impose tariffs on Indian goods and force New Delhi to import more American products.
Still, the agreement won praise.
“This is a huge deal,” said Rudra Chaudhuri, a senior lecturer at King’s College, London. 

“In one sense, it makes clear that the wind in the U.S.-India sail is strong, whatever differences there might be.”
The Indian and American defense secretaries, he said, have pulled off a big accomplishment “at a time the Trump White House remains committed to undermining the United States’ global partnerships.”
India is critical to the United States’ new “Indo-Pacific” strategy — formerly known as “Asia-Pacific” — which aims to curb the growing influence of China’s navy in the region by elevating New Delhi as a cornerstone of future military cooperation.

Although India is worried about China’s growing influence in the region — the two militaries engaged in a tense standoff over a disputed border region last year — New Delhi prefers to avert confrontation with Beijing when it can. 

That reluctance may stymie Washington’s plans for India to be a linchpin of its efforts to counter China, American officials worry.
India’s military budget this year is $45 billion, while China’s is $175 billion. 

India has 18 submarines in service; China has 78.
New Delhi has been alarmed by the growing presence of Chinese submarines in its traditional sphere of influence, and as Beijing strikes seaport deals with countries encircling India. 

Western and Indian diplomats worry China may turn these seaports, currently used for commercial purposes, into calling docks for Beijing’s navy by leveraging the enormous debt of countries it has lent money to across the region.
The goal of the trip by the American delegation this week was to smooth over the ability of the United States and India to cooperate militarily. 

Under the pact signed by the two countries, the Communication Compatibility and Security Agreement, the United States will transfer high-tech communications platforms to India. 

Until now, the countries have communicated over open radio channels.
“The defense cooperation has emerged as the most significant dimension of our strategic partnership and as a key driver of our overall bilateral relationship,” India’s defense minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said at the news conference Thursday, sitting with Mr. Mattis and Mike Pompeo.
American sanctions on Russia and Iran also loomed over the meetings, as both countries have major deals and economic ties with India.
Earlier this year, President Trump scrapped the Iran nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions on the country, which currently supplies roughly 20 percent of India’s oil needs. 

Indian businesses also have deep ties in Iran.
Mr. Trump has given allies a November deadline to stop trading with Iran or also face sanctions, but Indian officials have said they would ignore the threats and continue buying Iranian oil. 

Earlier this week, Mr. Pompeo acknowledged that Iran would feature in the negotiations in New Delhi, but said they would be a minor part of discussions.
India is also set to buy a Russian antiaircraft missile system, the S-400 Triumf, a $6 billion deal that violates sanctions that Congress imposed earlier this year on Russia.
American officials have indicated they may overlook the purchase, but they remain irked by New Delhi’s reliance on Russian defense equipment, which makes up the bulk of India’s military hardware.
Washington has tried to increase its military sales to New Delhi over the years. 

Sales have gone from nearly zero a decade ago to an estimated $18 billion next year.

U.S.-Led Infrastructure Aid to Counter China in Indo-Pacific

• Australia, Japan link with ally to fund ‘peace and prosperity’
• Pact enhances Trump’s evolving national security policies

By Jason Scott
Julie Bishop 

The U.S., Japan and Australia agreed to invest in infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific in a move seen as a counter to China’s rising influence in a region that stretches from the east coast of Africa, through Australia to Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean.
“This trilateral partnership is in recognition that more support is needed to enhance peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region,” Australia Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Tuesday in an emailed statement. 

The pact will mobilize investment in energy, transportation, tourism and technology infrastructure, according to the statement, which didn’t give any funding details.
The announcement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy in December called for policies to answer rival powers’ infrastructure-building efforts. 

Chief among these is Chinese dictator Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global plan to build or expand highways, railways, ports, pipelines and power plants that Morgan Stanley forecasts could grow as large as $1.3 trillion over the next decade.
U.S. infrastructure cooperation with Japan and Australia would dovetail with the Trump administration’s evolving national security policies, which have cast the U.S. as in “long-term, strategic competition” with China and Russia. 

Beijing’s BRI calls for half a trillion dollars in investment in infrastructure along trade routes to China, which is expected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy before 2030.
Before visiting China in November, Trump signed two deals with Japan, pledging cooperation on infrastructure projects in the region.
Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, speaking Monday before a trip to Asia amid an escalating trade war with China, said the U.S. believes in “strategic partnerships, not strategic dependency” -- a veiled criticism of Beijing’s efforts to woo countries with cheap financing for infrastructure projects.
“With American companies, citizens around the world know that what you see is what you get: honest contracts, honest terms and no need for off-the-books nonsense,” Pompeo said. 

Another advantage of the U.S. is that “we will help them keep their people free from coercion or great power domination,” he said.
Pompeo is likely to make announcements about the pact’s funding arrangements during his visit to Asia, which will include Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, according to Stephen Kirchner, director of trade and investment program at the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
“This is designed to provide mechanism that will allow more private-sector funding for the infrastructure projects that countries in this region need,” Kirchner said. 

That will mean it will operate in different ways to established funds such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, he said.
In February, Bishop said the three nations, along with India, had discussed opportunities to address “the enormous need for infrastructure” in the region, which encompasses some of the world’s poorest as well as fastest-growing economies.
India wasn’t mentioned in Tuesday’s announcement. 

Instead, the pact will be organized by the U.S.’s Overseas Private Investment Corp., the Japanese Bank for International Cooperation and Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
“This partnership represents our commitment to an Indo-Pacific region that is free, open and prosperous,” the three nations said in a joint statement issued on Monday, according to Bishop. 

The trilateral partnership will be formalized “in due course,” Bishop said.

Strained Ties
Australia’s diplomatic relationship with China has been strained since December when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Chinese meddling in the nation’s government and media were a catalyst for new anti-foreign interference laws, which passed parliament last month.
China lodged a formal protest with Australia in January after Turnbull’s minister for international development, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, said the Belt and Road plan risked building “useless buildings” and “roads to nowhere.”
Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo denied the new pact was designed to counter China and said he wasn’t expecting a backlash from Beijing.
“Why would there be any?” Ciobo said in a Sky News interview on Tuesday. 

“The fact is that we demonstrate consistently that Australia is very focused on making sure we can help the least-developed economies in our region.”

Political Lesson to Big Brother

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop delivers warning to China on need to embrace democracy
By Andrew Greene

Julie Bishop is in Singapore to promote Australia's relationships with key partners in Southeast Asia.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has warned China it can only reach its full economic potential if it further embraces democracy.
Speaking in Singapore on Monday night Ms Bishop strongly defended democratic institutions and regional norms, while reaffirming the Australian Government's view that the "United States must play an even greater role as the indispensable strategic power in the Indo-Pacific".
"It is the pre-eminent global strategic power in Asia and the world by some margin," Ms Bishop told the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
"It is a country which does not have territorial disputes with other countries in the region."
Ms Bishop, who recently met with US Vice-President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor HR McMaster, argued that the region was in a "strategic holding pattern and waiting to see whether the US and its security allies and partners can continue to play the robust and constructive role they have for many decades in preserving the peace".
In an address titled 'Change and Uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific' the Foreign Minister urged ASEAN members to champion democratic norms and institutions in the region.
During her Fullerton lecture Ms Bishop also sent an unusually blunt message to Beijing about the importance of democratic institutions.
"While it is appropriate for different states to discover their own pathway leading toward political reform, history shows that embrace of liberal democratic institutions is the most successful foundation for nations seeking economic prosperity and social stability," Ms Bishop said.
"While non-democracies such as China can thrive when participating in the present system, an essential pillar of our preferred order is democratic community."
"Domestic democratic habits of negotiating and compromise are essential to powerful countries resolving their disagreements according to international law and rules."
The Foreign Minister's comments come just days before Li Kequiang is scheduled to visit Australia.