Is it time to pivot away from the United States?

Paper tiger: Muted U.S. Response to China’s Seizure of Drone Worries Asian Allies.

Leaders like Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines would feel validated by his pivot away from the United States toward China
By JANE PERLEZ

Killing the American paper tiger

BEIJING — Only a day before a small Chinese boat sidled up to a United States Navy research vessel in waters off the Philippines and audaciously seized an underwater drone from American sailors, the commander of United States military operations in the region told an audience in Australia that America had a winning military formula.
“Capability times resolve times signaling equals deterrence,” Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., told a blue chip crowd of diplomats and analysts at the prestigious Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, the leading city in America’s closest ally in the region.
In the eyes of America’s friends in Asia, the brazen maneuver to launch an operation against an American Navy vessel in international waters in the South China Sea about 50 miles from the Philippines, another close American ally, has raised questions about one of the talkative admiral’s crucial words. 

It was also seen by some as a taunt to President Donald J. Trump, who has challenged the “One China” policy on Taiwan and has vowed to deal forcefully with Beijing in trade and other issues.
“The weak link is the resolve, and the Chinese are testing that, as well as baiting Trump,” said Euan Graham, director of international security at the Lowy Institute. 

“Capability, yes. Signaling, yes, with sending F-22 fighter jets to Australia. But the very muted response means the equation falls down on resolve.”

Across Asia, diplomats and analysts said they were perplexed at the inability of the Obama administration to devise a strong response to China’s challenge. 

It did not even dispatch an American destroyer to the spot near Subic Bay, a former American Navy base that is still frequented by American ships, some noted.
After discussions at the National Security Council on how to deal with the issue, the Obama administration sent a démarche to China demanding the return of the drone. 

On Saturday, China said it would comply with the request but did not indicate when or how the equipment would be sent back.
The end result, analysts said, is that China would be emboldened by having carried out an act that amounted to hybrid warfare, falling just short of provoking conflict, and suffering few noticeable consequences.
“Allies and observers will find it hard not to conclude this represents another diminishment of American authority in the region,” said Douglas H. Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Significantly, the Chinese grabbed the drone not only in international waters but outside even the “nine dash line” that China uses as a marker for its claims in the South China Sea. 

In so doing, analysts said, Beijing was making the point that the entire sea was its preserve, even though it is entirely legal for the United States to conduct military operations in waters within 200 miles of the Philippines, an area known as an exclusive economic zone.
In the last dozen years, China has steadily showed off its growing military prowess to the countries around the South China Sea, which carries trillions of dollars of world trade and that China values for its strategic access to the Western Pacific and to the Indian Ocean.
As China has built up its navy and its submarine fleet in the last decade, it has also emphasized what it calls its “inherent” right to dominate the regional seas, and to challenge the presence of the United States, its allies and partners in Asia.
The drone incident, which occurred Thursday, and was first broadcast by CNN despite efforts by the Obama administration to settle it quietly, was of a different nature and just as disquieting as past confrontations with China that involved bigger ships and more dangerous maneuvers, analysts said.
In 2001, soon after President George W. Bush came to office, an American spy aircraft, an EP-3, was forced to land on Hainan Island after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet. 

The Chinese stripped the plane of all its assets and returned it broken down to its parts and packed in boxes.
In 2009, two months after President Obama took office, Chinese vessels swarmed a United States Navy reconnaissance ship, the Impeccable, in what the Pentagon said were dangerous and unprofessional maneuvers.

This time, China chose a more unconventional method to challenge the United States and hastened the timetable, challenging a president-elect, rather than a newly installed president as it has in the past.
The drone itself, known as an unmanned underwater vehicle, was not a particularly important piece of equipment. 

Such drones are deployed to gather military oceanographic data and are available over the counter for about $150,000, the Pentagon said. 

Data from the drone would no doubt be used to help track China’s growing submarine fleet, naval experts said.
More important than the equipment was the principle of freedom of navigation in international waters, and whether China was in the process of imposing its own rules in the South China Sea — more than 800 miles away from its coastline, said Alexander Vuving, a specialist on Vietnam at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii.
“This is China showing that it is in the process of setting the rules in the South China Sea, imposing its own view in the South China Sea and saying the South China Sea should be its own backyard,” Mr. Vuving said.
“If China can get away with this incident with impunity, this will send a chilling message to countries in the region,” he said.
Leaders like Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines would feel validated by his pivot away from the United States toward China, he said.

“Others, like the Vietnamese, will have to seriously rethink their regional outlook.”
Vietnam, always fearful of China, its neighbor to the north, but also careful not to alienate Beijing, has tried in the last few years to draw closer to the United States, while still maintaining a careful distance.
In 2011, as China became more assertive in the South China Sea, Vietnam accused China of instructing three high speed patrol boats to cut the cables of a Vietnamese oil and gas survey ship.
The authoritarian Vietnamese government was so furious it allowed anti-Chinese demonstrations in Hanoi.
In 2014, China moved a billion dollar oil rig to waters close to the Paracel Islands that both Vietnam and China claim, and then blasted a flotilla of Vietnamese ships with water cannon.
Since then, China has hardened its position, sometimes referring to the South China Sea a “core interest” in which there is no room for compromise, though others in the region call it bullying by Xi Jinping.
Under that vision, China would be in control from the waters of Indonesia, to Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and up to Japan.
In the East China Sea, China and Japan are at odds over the Senkaku Islands.

In June, China sent a warship for the first time into the waters around the islands, further escalating tensions.

Japan has been more outspoken than other Asian countries in its support for the Obama administration’s objections to China’s construction of military facilities on seven artificial islands in the South China Sea.
But in Tokyo, the government was watching the outcome of the drone incident with some anxiety. 

So far, Washington’s restrained response has not been reassuring.

Casus Belli

China drone seizure throws down North Korean-style gauntlet to Trump
By Michael Auslin

In seizing an unmanned, underwater US Navy drone in international waters off the Philippines on Thursday, China has thrown down a North Korean-style gauntlet to the incoming Trump team.
While media reports are still sketchy, it appears that a Chinese naval vessel was close enough to a US oceanographic survey ship to launch a small boat to grab the scientific drone as the American vessel was preparing to retrieve it.

That would mean a ship-to-ship level of intimidation, and not a snatch-and-grab action in isolated waters.
Like in 2009, when the Chinese harassed the USNS Impeccable in the South China Sea, the latest action comes against a similarly unarmed US research vessel. 

This time, however, the Chinese flagrantly flouted international law, and unlawfully seized US property while endangering the safety of US military personnel on the high seas.
Such a dramatic upping of the ante is out of character for China, and American officials should understand that Beijing now appears willing to take increasingly risky actions. 

This latest provocation may well be in response to President Trump's recent comments on China, Taiwan and the One-China Policy.
At the same time, the latest challenge comes on the heels of steadily degrading relations between the Obama Administration and China, including news that Beijing is rapidly militarizing its newly built islands located near the Philippines. 

On these reclaimed shoals, China has emplaced anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems in what can also be a precursor to fielding offensive weapons capabilities. 

In response, senior US military leaders have made forthright statements about America's national interest in maintaining open and uncontested sea lanes. 

These comments have put Beijing on notice that Washington will not sit idly by if China appears be upending decades of peaceful development in Asia's waters.
Until January 20, it is the current president's job to respond. 

The Chinese move offers Obama two choices: be seen as capitulating to a dramatic increase in Chinese aggressiveness, or leave office having taken a hard line against China's destabilizing path. Whatever course he takes, however, will almost certainly be carried over into the new administration, given how close we are to Inauguration Day.
The United States has formally demanded the return of the drone, but diplomatic protests will not be enough. 

While it is likely that the Chinese will surrender the drone after a few days, a toothless US response will only embolden further belligerence on Beijing's part. 

The Obama Administration should make clear that if the drone is not returned, then an escalating series of reprisals will be triggered; these could include reducing military contacts and disinviting the Chinese navy from RIMPAC naval exercises, considering targeted sanctions against Chinese companies connected to the military and refusing visas for high-ranking Chinese.
Should similar offenses occur again, 

Washington should make clear that it will take further action, including more direct support for nations facing Chinese pressure over their own territorial claims, such as enhanced defense cooperation and expedited supply of defensive equipment. 

Through it all, Washington must maintain a constant presence in contested waters, including freedom of navigation operations near Chinese-claimed territory.
Both sides should fear a situation where cooler heads are pushed aside by surging emotion. 

The risk of an accident between the Chinese and US militaries, or where China lashes out against a smaller Asian nation, could lead to true crisis and even an armed clash. 

While it may seem risky to take a hard line now against China, Washington may have no choice later on, or it will be forced to accept a major diminution of its credibility in Asia. 

Simply put, this is about stopping bullying in its tracks and maintaining stability in the world's most heavily-trafficked waterways.
Regardless of what the Obama Administration decides to do, the Trump team should be prepared for more, and more unpredictable, Chinese actions designed to get the new president to back down from his apparent intention to challenge the status quo in Sino-US relations. 

They should be thinking now about how they will respond to similar Chinese challenges, or risk being thrown on the defensive to an emboldened aggressor.
The goal is not to back the Chinese into a corner or goad them into further aggression, but rather just the opposite. 

Beijing must understand that such unprovoked and belligerent acts will merit a rejoinder. 

Otherwise, China will get the wrong message and will continue testing the US government. 

At some point, it will miscalculate or its actions will become intolerable, resulting in a more forceful US reaction. 

A firm US response now is the best option for preventing a worsening cycle of tit-for-tat challenges.