Sina Delenda Est

China’s creeping ambitions in the Arctic set the stage for icy showdown

By Nick Whigham

CHINA is considered an Arctic newcomer but the increasingly emboldened superpower is certainly making its presence known in the critically important, a region considered to be the stage for the next big resource battle.

In a remote valley near the Arctic Circle construction workers are building a research facility to study the spectacular streaks of colour that light up Iceland’s wintry sky known as the Northern Lights. 

The joint facility between Beijing and Iceland is funded by China’s Polar Research Institute and the facility will house Chinese, Icelandic and international scientists when it opens next year.
The facility which will resemble a cement shell nestled in the snow is the product of a unique, and rather lopsided, friendship — and one that points to Beijing’s ever growing Arctic ambitions.
Iceland is happy to have a powerful friend while China wants to strengthen its presence in the region and cultivate an Arctic ally as climate change opens up new sea routes and resource-extraction opportunities.
Opportunities that a lot of countries are vying for.
The US Geological Survey carried out in 2008 estimated there is 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 per cent of oil waiting to be found inside the Arctic Circle. 

So it’s no surprise that China has been steadily working to insert itself in a quiet struggle in the region.
Most estimates predict there will be no more ice in the Arctic Summer by 2050 while some climate scientists have even said it could disappear in the next two years during the Arctic Summer — hastening a potential scramble for resources.

THE FINAL FRONTIER
The Arctic is the closest thing left to virgin territory in the modern world.
Once of relatively little interest to the Asian giant, China has begun to formulate a regional strategy for the Arctic in the past decade in a mission to get a piece of the action.
Xi Jinping first referred to China as a polar great power when he visited Australia in November 2014 — a declaration that was years in the making.
Since then the country has become one of the most vocal of all external actors in justifying the involvement of non-Arctic states in the region.
On the surface, China’s latest project in the Arctic is about studying the Northern Lights. 

But China’s growing interest has also aroused suspicion among Icelanders, who are wary of big powers trying to grab their resources, whether it be fish, energy or land.
“We are a very small country, we are only 300,000 people, so we don’t look at our independence as an automatic thing,” said Asgeir Jonsson, an economist at the University of Iceland. 

“It’s something that you have to protect and look after,” he told the Associated Press this week.
“In our history, we have a long story of fighting with the bigger powers around us over fish and the resources that we have. That has left its mark on the population.”
Iceland was devastated by the 2008 financial crisis. 

When the calamity struck Iceland’s banks — which had accrued debts more than 10 times the country’s GDP — collapsed and the government had to be bailed out by the IMF.
The resulting financial turmoil nudged the tiny country in the direction of China who saw an opportunity and was more than willing to help. 

Shortly after the two countries signed a free-trade agreement, making Iceland the first European country to do so with China.
“China needs a partner in the Arctic,” said Dr Nengye Liu from the University of New England’s School of Law. 

According to him, Iceland is a good partner but actually the second choice for China.
“Ideally, Norway would be the best ally because it shares a border with the Arctic,” he told news.com.au. 

However relations between the two nations soured in 2010 when the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to incarcerated Chinese human rights activist Liu Xiaobo.

Northern Lights, Lapland Image courtesy Kakslauttanen Arctic Resort, Finland.
Unlike Antarctica, most of the Arctic is under national jurisdiction and China has no chance of exerting the same influence as countries such as Canada, Norway, the US and Russia who border the Arctic.
It puts China at a massive disadvantage when trying to assert its national interest in the region. 

But Iceland can help in that quest, at least in part.
“We all know China is very interested in the Arctic,” Dr Liu said. 

The relationship with Iceland is more about a move from “symbolic participation to real participation,” he said.
Most importantly, “China wants to ensure it doesn’t get left behind.”
Some of the plans discussed by the two countries have been grandly ambitious, such as making a deep-sea port in a northern Iceland fjord to create a major shipping hub on the Northern Sea Route.
It remains unbuilt, but the economic relationship between the two countries is growing steadily.
Iceland has granted the China National Offshore Oil Company permission to explore in Iceland’s waters, and Beijing has tapped Icelandic expertise in geothermal power, a major industry in volcanic Iceland and a potential source of clean energy for China.
Aside from the increasing opportunity for the extraction of resources as the Arctic ice melts, there is also potential for greater fishing and the emergence of better shipping routes for Chinese cargo.
In an email to The Associated Press, the Chinese embassy in the US said China could benefit from Iceland’s “cutting-edge technologies in renewable energy, life-science (and) carbon-fibre industries,” as well as its fresh fish, meat, dairy products and mineral water. 

In return, China can provide Iceland with a wide range of Chinese-made goods.
The Usual Suspect: Xi Jinping

In the past other world powers have also viewed China’s growing ambition in the Arctic with unease. However that seemed to shift in 2013 when the Arctic Council agreed to expand in order to include six nations, including China, as observer states.
The core members of the council are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Russia, the United States and Iceland who all have territorial claims in the region.
China now attends annual Arctic Circle Assemblies hosted by Iceland which see gatherings of politicians, officials, scientists and businesspeople to discuss the future of the region.
Anne-Marie Brady, editor in chief of the Journal Polar and a global fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington. 

She has written extensively on China’s creeping Arctic ambitions and says the country has a “broad range” of intentions but says China’s main goal right now “is to make sure it has a seat at any decision-making table and has access to any rights that are up for grabs.”
She also points out that Iceland’s politicians have become adept at “playing the big powers off each other” in regional struggles.
“They are getting a lot more attention from the United States in recent years because of their perceived very good relationship with China,” she said. 

“And yet what the ordinary people think about that is often quite different from their government. ... the population has some misgivings about this close relationship.”
That suspicion was certainly evident when the Chinese-funded observatory was announced for a sparsely populated region 400 kilometres northeast of Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik.
That suspicion was fanned when former official at the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Pascal Heyman, said the Chinese want to use such equipment to keep an eye on NATO airspace.

In this photo provided by Dirk Notz, taken April 24, 2009, ice floats in the Arctic near Svalbard, Norway. At current carbon emission levels, the Arctic will likely be free of sea ice in September around mid-century.

THE BATTLE FOR THE NORTH
In 2008 the Arctic five committed themselves to the existing legal framework of the Arctic and the orderly settlement of possible overlapping claims.
The US Navy predicted as far back as 2002, there could be no ice in the Arctic summer by 2050. More recent studies by US agencies state it could happen much sooner.
The world is already seeing a scramble to lay claim to the resources currently locked away by the pack ice — and Russia is making a serious move.
In the past few years a newly aggressive Kremlin has been building a swathe of new (and reactivating many old) military bases along its Arctic frontier, something that has not gone unnoticed by the Pentagon.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs has previously warned recently that Moscow is setting up a naval infantry brigade, an air defence division, and a coastal missile system, in outlying archipelagos in the Arctic Ocean.
As the polar ice cap continues to melt, the world is witnessing nothing less than the opening of a new ocean and anyone able to exert influence over such a strong commercial area will be in the box-seat when it comes to world affairs.
The new shipping routes that are set to open up hold the promise of linking Europe and Asia via the northern pole that could, in the view of numerous maritime experts, substantially reduce travel distances, transit times, and overall transportation costs in the coming years.
As for the China and Iceland’s latest project, scientists hope the observatory will help them learn about the interaction between the sun and the Earth’s magnetic field, which could help predict space weather.
The building of the facility is behind schedule — in part due to a shortage of building contractors in Iceland — but is due to open late next year.

Donald Trump hawkish views on China bode well for India

According to Trump, the United States has been fighting an old Cold War they understand rather than the new Cold War they are in with China on which they are yet to get a grip. 

By Jaideep Prabhu

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections came as a total surprise not just for his opponent, Hillary Clinton, but even many of his supporters. 

If rumours are to be believed, Trump himself was in a subdued mood the whole evening until Florida turned in his favour. 

News of his success has been met with what can only be described as a meltdown among his detractors across the political spectrum. 

Given the United States' military and economic reach, Trump’s victory will undoubtedly affect the world but thankfully less so than ordinary Americans. 

The question in this part of the world is, how will a Trump presidency affect India?
With its quasi-pivot to Asia, the United States has been heavily involved with several countries in India’s vicinity. 

Washington’s ties with Delhi have also gone from strength to strength since the George W Bush administration. 

Despite ebbs and flows, an Indo-US partnership has become a bipartisan issue. 

Nonetheless, Delhi and Washington have had difficulty seeing eye-to-eye on several points of mutual interest due to differing priorities. 

There is room for cautious optimism that Indo-US goals will align further under President Trump.
Trump is probably the first tenant of the White House who has had no experience whatsoever in public office, be it as a small town mayor, in the military, or elsewhere. 

As such, he comes to office with no ideological baggage – one wonders if he has even seriously thought about some of America’s challenges to have definitive views on them. 

Even during the primaries and campaign, the then presidential candidate's responses to questions could only be described as abstract expressionism. 

In such an environment, it is difficult to predict what policies Trump will pursue.
There have been, however, a couple of motifs that have been consistent in his messaging. 

For example, he has repeatedly hinted at mending relations with Russia. 

According to Trump, the United States has been fighting an old Cold War they understand rather than the new Cold War they are in with China on which they are yet to get a grip.

This bodes well for Delhi because it stops Vladimir Putin from being nudged into the embrace of Xi Jinping. 

Additionally, it allows India greater room in proposing important projects like the International North-South Trade Corridor that need Moscow’s support. 

A less antagonised Russian bear may even prove to be a useful ally against the Taliban, the ISI, and Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan.
On Pakistan, Trump has promised a far tougher stand but he will be the first American president to deliver on such a promise. 

Despite several scholars disproving the mistaken American belief that the US ‘needs’ Pakistan in that region, influential elements in the US government have been reluctant to jettison Islamabad even after many provocations. 

While a realistic US appraisal of Pakistan is something to look forward to, its historical probability is low.
There is a concern that the United States will shun their alliance responsibilities under Trump. 

This has been the indication with not just Nato but also in East Asia. 

However, the president-elect called the South Korean premier soon after the election results were confirmed to assure her of America’s continued support. 

In all likelihood, Trump would just like to see America's allies pull their weight a bit more. 

This is a complaint Washington has had for a long time, though what exactly pulling their weight would entail in terms of increased independence from alliance policies was never clear.
Trump’s hawkish views on China reinforce the belief that he will not abandon US allies in the region. 

Admittedly, he has veered away from the traditional US course of discouraging independent nuclear arsenals. 

Yet this would also require willingness from the other side to embark on such an ambitious and politically fraught programme, something both sides may be able to ultimately avoid.
The future of trade pacts such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and TPIP are also unsure. 

They have been on weak legs even before the US election season but the incoming president's hostility to them is well known. 

He would either let negotiations lapse or at best reopen the technical aspects of the treaty for further discussions, thereby punting the TPP's coming into force down a few years until the end of his term or into his second term. 

Either way, this is good tidings for India, who would lose billions standing outside the pact. 

It allows Delhi's mandarins time to strategise a response, be it via joining the trade pact or bracing for the fallout by negotiating free trade agreements of its own.
Another area of concern is Trump’s belief that Iran got off too lightly in the nuclear deal negotiated last year. 

He has done both, threatened to tear up the agreement and police it closely too. 

If Iran is baited out of the deal by an obstructionist Trump White House, it is not sure how much support from the world community further sanctions on Iran will have. 

This could get thorny for India but this is not a purely Trump problem — Republicans have been saying similar things ever since negotiations began. 

India will have to persuade its American partner of the wisdom of restraint and the favourable ripples it could have in other hotspots such as Syria.
The most visible feature of Indo-US relations — arms sales and joint military exercises — will most certainly not go wanting. 

Defence stocks are up in the United States after Trump’s victory as the budgetary cuts enacted by his predecessor are thought to be on the chopping block. 

Foreign sales will make domestic defence spending more affordable and India is keen to modernise its military. 

Beyond the monetary aspect, it also makes little sense for the United States to plan a more robust policy in East Asia while discouraging local partners to take a more proactive role in what will always primarily be their security. 

Washington’s most reliable partners will be those most concerned and powerless in the face of China's rise, the states around the Indo-Pacific Ocean rim and warmer relations with Russia will not be of much use here.
Perhaps the greatest tussle will be over the economy, but that is also a mixed bag — while Trump has promised to curb immigration and slash the H1B skilled worker visas, he has also called India a land of economic opportunity and even invested in some real estate in the country. 

Trump will, like previous administrations, pressure India on opening up its economy further and doing more to protect intellectual property. 

The question is how much effort he will put into this challenging aspect of Indo-US relations.
All this assumes, of course, a certain modicum of rationality, a desire to deliver on election promises made, and a sound staff probably taken from the Bush years.