Iron Lady

Julie Bishop raises objections to China's activities in South China Sea
By Katharine Murphy

Julie Bishop has raised objections to China’s militarisation of the South China Sea after weekend reports that a Chinese bomber capable of carrying a nuclear warhead had been on the disputed Paracel Islands.
With relations between Canberra and Beijing tense, courtesy of the Turnbull government’s pursuit of a crackdown against foreign interference, the Australian foreign minister has held a lengthy meeting with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Argentina.
Bishop characterised the discussion as “very warm and candid and constructive” and said she would shortly visit the Chinese capital.
She said she had a good long-term relationship with her Chinese counterpart and told the ABC that Australia would “continue to approach our bilateral relationship with goodwill and realism and pragmatism and open communication”.
While the meeting in Argentina was obviously intended to achieve a diplomatic thaw, Bishop confirmed she had raised objections about China’s activities in the South China Sea, including the weekend incident.
The Chinese airforce said several bombers of various types – including the long-range, nuclear strike-capable H-6K – carried out landing and take-off drills at an unidentified island airfield after carrying out simulated strike training on targets at sea.
“Australia’s position has been very clear and consistent and it is very well known to China. Our concern about militarisation of disputed features of the South China Sea has been the subject of a number of discussions, and was again today,” Bishop said on Tuesday.
She said Australia had consistently raised concerns about activities in the disputed territory as part of “enduring, broad dialogue with China, and I don’t believe China was surprised by my raising it again today”.
Bishop also discussed the South China Sea with the US at the G20 meeting. 

She said Australia would continue to exercise its rights to freedom of navigation and overflight “and support the rights of others to do so” – and had conveyed that position to China.

China lands nuclear strike-capable bombers on South China Sea islands
The foreign minister has been criticised over her handling of the Australia-China relationship by a former Australian ambassador to Beijing, Geoff Raby, now a Chinese agent based in China.
Bishop has hit back at the critique from Raby, calling him ill-informed and “profoundly ignorant, might I say, about the level of engagement between Australia and China at present and the state of the relationship”.
In a translated press statement after the G20 talks, the Chinese foreign minister was less upbeat than Bishop. 

He acknowledged China-Australia relations had “encountered some difficulties”.
He also urged Australia to adopt a more positive disposition towards Beijing. 

“If Australia sincerely hopes that the relations between the two countries will return to the right track... they must break away from traditional thinking, take off their coloured glasses, and look at China’s development from a positive angle,” Wang said.

Chinese Aggressions

China Nears Completion of Militarizing Island Chain
By Joshua Fatzick

Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, May 21, 2015.

WASHINGTON — China is almost finished building military structures on its artificial islands in the South China Sea (SCS), Reuters reports, in a development that is sure to test the new Trump administration.

Unnamed U.S. officials told the news service construction is almost complete on nearly two dozen structures with retractable roofs designed to house long-range surface-to-air missiles on the Spratly Island chain.
The new development could be considered a military escalation on China’s part and could serve as an early test for Donald Trump, who took a hard line against China throughout his campaign.
“This is part of their effort to eventually control that first island chain in the SCS and assert their claim, even though they have been completely repudiated by the International Court of Appeals, The Hague, based on the Law of the Sea Treaty, of which they are a member,” Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told VOA.
Brad Glosserman, executive director of the Hawaii-based security think tank Pacific Forum, told VOA this was another step in China’s recent attempts to further militarize the islands.
“Clearly, they are intending to build facilities that allow them to permanently store or deploy equipment of a military nature to these islands,” he said.
A report released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) in December shows China has been building airstrips and anti-aircraft systems on the artificial islands since at least June of 2016.

An undated satellite image released by the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies shows construction of possible radar tower facilities in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea.

China's Defense Ministry issued a statement at the time, saying the construction was "mainly for civilian use."
The Trump administration has taken a strong stance against the militarization of the islands, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in January suggesting the United States block China from accessing the islands.
“We're going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed," he said during his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate.
White House Spokesman Sean Spicer backed Tillerson up when asked about the comments, saying the United States needed to “protect our interests” in the South China Sea.
“It's a question of if those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then... we're going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country," Spicer said during a press briefing last month.
While the artificial islands could become a serious test of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, the islands weren’t designed with that intention, Glosserman said.
“It constitutes a test for this president, just as it constitutes a test for any president, but this was not done specifically to challenge Mr. Trump,” he said. 

“This was a determination that the Chinese had made about what they wanted to do, and that therefore they are going to proceed. It becomes a challenge, but it was not designed as such.”

China Threat

Chinese development in Indian Ocean raising concern of militarisation among major players
By James Bennett

China's Liaoning aircraft carrier with accompanying fleet in the South China Sea.

Japan, India, Australia and the United States are closely monitoring China's infrastructure development on the Indian Ocean rim amid increasing concern about the potential for militarisation in the sea lanes which carry much of the world's oil.
One former American intelligence chief is warning the only way to avoid that is to make confrontation unpalatable for China.
With an eye to China's current island reclamation activity in the South China Sea, Japan, which is almost wholly dependent on imported oil, is particularly nervous.
"Yes, China is a kind of threat to us in the South China Sea. Will this Indian Ocean be the same, or different?" asked Nobuo Tanaka, a former Japanese bureaucrat and head of the International Energy Agency.
More than 80 per cent of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through three Indian Ocean choke points — the Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca and Bab el-Mandab.
"This area, the Indian Ocean, is so important for us now because it connects our energy sources in the Middle East to Asia and to Japan," Mr Tanaka said at an Indian Ocean security conference in New Delhi this week.
The chair of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation think tank said Japan was worried about a Chinese road, rail and pipeline project from China through central Asia and Pakistan, which culminates at a deep-water port close to Karachi, strategically located near the entrance to the Persian gulf.
"China is trying to develop so-called 'one belt, one road' strategy and they're extending their power projecting their power to this area also," he said.

Shared concern
"The fear is this could become increasingly militarised," said Dhruva Jaishankar, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institute in India.
"The Indian Ocean is already seeing a level of competition that I think we would not have anticipated 10 years ago, we've seen investments by China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, India all across the Indian ocean littoral from Iran to Djibouti, east Africa to South-East Asia.

What will the United States do?
The biggest uncertainty is US President Donald Trump.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer has already signalled President Trump's intention to "defend international territories from being taken over by one country", in reference to potential confrontation in the South China Sea.
The question among policy wonks is whether he will adopt a similar stance in the Indian Ocean.
"I would also urge those of you who are watching the United States to look a little bit below the surface and not to be captured by social media — from whatever source," retired US Admiral and former Director of America's National Intelligence agencies, Dennis Blair, joked at the New Delhi conference.
"Enjoy the spectacle," Admiral Blair said, in reference to President Trump's penchant for conducting foreign policy via Twitter.

Make it 'very high risk' for China
But in support of President Trump's promised military build-up, Admiral Blair also said the only way to deter Chinese aggression was for other countries to ensure that China knew it would lose any confrontation.
"What's really important, I believe, is for India, Japan and the United States to modernise and strengthen our own maritime, air and, where necessary, ground capabilities to improve that military balance in our favour, and therefore make it very high risk for China to undertake military aggression."

Australia's balancing act
Australia's foreign policy establishment is similarly awaiting direction from Washington.
Within Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs, there is also continued debate on the merits of reviving formal four-way security cooperation between Australia, Japan, India and the United States.
Supporters argue it would send an important message about the democracies' shared desire to protect the status quo.
Opponents fear it would be seen as provocative by China.
Former Labor Foreign Minister Stephen Smith withdrew Australia from the Japanese-led initiative in 2007, a move widely seen as a win for Chinese diplomacy.
Professor Rory Medcalf, from the Australian National University's National Security College, said since then, much of the work as continued 'by stealth' under three-way arrangements between Australia, Japan and the US, and the US, Japan and India.
"The four countries are of course being careful about Chinese reactions, but at the same time, none of us wants to allow China to veto the dialogues we have with each other," he said.
Professor Medcalf argues Australia's interests are best served by working with regional powers to urge Chinese restraint, and to keep America engaged.
"Countries like Japan, Australia and India will get together with one voice, to say, on the one hand to China, 'be more stabilising' in the way its using its growing power," Professor Medcalf said.
"But also to send a message to the United States, that we want a forthright and engaged and balanced American presence in the region."