U.S. Fighters for Taiwan

The island democracy needs advanced air power to deter China.
The Wall Street Journal

A Chinese armed helicopter assaults targets with rocket projectiles in a live-fire exercise off China's southeast coast, April 18. 

Chinese bombers and warships conducted exercises near Taiwan this month, a show of force that officials in Beijing called a warning not to pursue formal independence. 

Last year the number of Chinese air patrols off Taiwan’s east coast quadrupled, and Beijing under Xi Jinping has stepped up pressure on the island democracy to “reunify” with the motherland.
China’s bullying is raising alarms in the U.S., which is obligated to help Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act. 

The mainland People’s Liberation Army is deploying new jets, ships and other weapons in such numbers that the island’s defenses are in danger of being overwhelmed. 

Past U.S. Administrations failed to sell Taiwan the weapons it needs, and much of its arsenal is outdated.
The island’s most pressing need is air power. 

The mainstay of Taiwan’s fighter force is a fleet of 144 F-16s bought in the mid-1990s. 

Fewer than half the planes are ready for combat at any time, thanks to the maintenance required by aging aircraft and upgrades. 

Taiwan is pleading for new fighters to counter China’s advanced planes such as the Russian-made Su-35.
China also deploys more than 1,500 ballistic missiles within range of Taiwan, some highly accurate. They could damage airfields and destroy planes on the ground in minutes. 

Taiwan has bought advanced versions of the Patriot system to counter this threat, but the number and sophistication of Chinese missiles means many would get through. 

A 2009 Rand study said China could likely achieve air superiority over the island within days.
U.S. Senators John Cornyn and James Inhofe asked Donald Trump last month to support Taiwan’s request to buy the vertical takeoff version of the new F-35 fighter. 

They wrote, “The survivability of the F35B and modern long-range sensors could help Taiwan intercept Chinese missiles, promoting deterrence well into the next decade.”
In a crisis the F-35B can be based almost anywhere, making it hard for Chinese missiles to destroy on the ground. 

Its stealth and other capabilities mean Chinese military planners couldn’t count on air superiority in a conflict.
There are several reasons the U.S. is unlikely to sell Taiwan the F-35B right away. 

One is the difficulty of getting the consortium of nations behind the F-35 to agree amid China’s inevitable howls of outrage. 

Another concern is China’s success in recruiting spies within Taiwan’s armed forces, meaning the plane’s secrets could be stolen.
One solution would be to sell Taiwan the latest version of the F-16 and lease some used fighters as a stopgap. 

Over the next few years, the U.S. could lay the groundwork for the F-35B sale as well as another layer of missile defense, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense or Thaad. 

That would give President Tsai Ing-wen time to follow through on her promise to increase military spending, a key requirement if Taiwan is to strengthen its defenses.
Beijing keeps pressing the U.S. to abandon Taiwan. 

Last December a Chinese diplomat in Washington threatened war if a U.S. Navy ship visits a Taiwanese port. 

But the threats and intimidation are backfiring, fostering a consensus in Washington that Taiwan needs more U.S. arms and closer security cooperation to deter Chinese adventurism. 

A sizable sale of fighter aircraft this year would shore up a democratic ally and reduce the chance of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

China Threat

As China Puts Pressure on Taiwan, Signs of a U.S. Pushback
By KEITH BRADSHER

Taiwanese sailors saluting their flag after military drills in January. President Trump signed legislation in September with a provision that encourages mutual port calls by ships from Taiwan and the United States.

BEIJING — As China ratchets up pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims as its territory, the United States is cautiously starting to push back.
In recent months, Chinese strategic bombers have been conducting “island encirclement” flights, escorted by fighter jets. 

The Chinese government has discouraged tourism to Taiwan and imports of goods like fish over the past year and a half, hurting its economy. 

And China persuaded the island’s most important remaining diplomatic ally, Panama, to switch diplomatic recognition last summer from Taipei to Beijing.
Concern about Taiwan’s fate now appears to be building slowly in Washington, even as President Trump continues to seek China’s help on other issues. 

Through his first year in office, Mr. Trump pressed Beijing to put more pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, with limited success. 

He has also sought to limit China’s nearly $400 billion trade surplus with the United States, which has nonetheless continued to widen.
Against that backdrop, Washington has recently begun moving gradually to reinforce its ties to Taiwan, a vigorous democracy facing an increasingly authoritarian government in Beijing.
Bills have been introduced in Congress to promote visits to Taiwan by warships and by civilian officials. 

A small gathering of defense contractors is planned for May to discuss Taiwan’s production of parts for weapons assembled in the United States. 

And in June, an American institute that functions as an informal diplomatic channel plans to open an elegant new complex in Taiwan’s capital.

China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen was elected president two years ago. Her party has a long history of favoring formal independence for the self-governing island.

“It looks like the Trump administration is playing the Taiwan card for whatever purpose — to put pressure or to seek concessions,” said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Chinese officials are showing signs of annoyance, and raising accusations that the United States is interfering in what Beijing considers one of its redline issues. 

Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the second-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Forces Committee after Senator John McCain of Arizona, is in Taiwan this week, leading a large delegation of House and Senate committee members and staff.
They have been meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen and her senior ministers.

In an emailed reply to questions, Senator Inhofe endorsed continued American support for Taiwan, including a bill pending in the Senate that would encourage senior administration officials to visit the island. 

The bill has already passed the House.
“With China becoming more aggressive and intent on expanding its influence globally, the United States-Taiwan security relationship is now more important than ever,” the senator said. 

“By ensuring they have the ability to defend themselves, Taiwan will continue to be an important part of promoting regional stability.”

Military exercises in eastern Taiwan. Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has put more emphasis on reunifying Taiwan with the mainland than his recent predecessors have. 

President Trump signed separate legislation in December that included a provision encouraging mutual port calls by naval vessels from Taiwan and the United States. 

The president has long had the authority to order port calls and dispatch senior officials, so both measures are somewhat symbolic, said Richard C. Bush, a former head of the American Institute in Taiwan, which handles the United States government’s contacts with the island.
Two events coming up in Taiwan may further annoy Beijing.
One is a luncheon and meeting in southern Taiwan in early May for a handful of executives from American military contractors and their Taiwanese counterparts. 

They will discuss a proposal by President Tsai to develop Taiwan’s components industry by selling more parts to military contractors, said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the president of the United States-Taiwan Business Council, the host of the event.
The development was initially reported by Taiwanese, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong news media as a decision to move a big annual military contracting conference from the United States to Taiwan, potentially triggering a further chasm between Beijing and the United States. 

But the business council, which has organized the much larger event since its inception 16 years ago, has consistently held it in the United States and plans to keep doing so, Mr. Hammond-Chambers said.
The other event that could trigger Sino-American disagreement is expected in mid-June. 

That is when the American Institute in Taiwan is scheduled to open a new complex of elegantly designed buildings in Taipei, the capital, consolidating operations that are currently scattered among several dilapidated sites around the city. 

The institute is staffed mainly by State Department employees and local workers.
There has been no suggestion that President Trump, who skipped the opening of the new American Embassy in London last month, would come to the Taipei event. 

Instead, the unanswered question is how senior an American official might attend.

An air force base in southern Taiwan. Chinese pressure on Taiwan has included “island encirclement” flights by strategic bombers, escorted by fighter jets. 

The first Bush administration, the Clinton administration and the Obama administration all sent cabinet officials to Taipei at various times. 

But they chose the United States trade representative, the secretary of transportation and the chief of the Environmental Protection Agency, rather than higher-profile officials like the secretary of state or the secretary of defense.
In each case, Beijing complained that the visits happened at all. 

Global Times, a nationalistic, Beijing-controlled newspaper, said earlier this month, “If any U.S. high-level official pays an official visit to Taiwan, Beijing will treat it as severe provocation and adopt all possible countermeasures, including uniting Taiwan by military force.”
Xi Jinping has put more emphasis than his recent predecessors on China’s goal of eventual political unification of Taiwan with the mainland. 

During his 205-minute speech last October at the start of the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade national congress, Xi received his loudest, most enthusiastic applause — particularly from army generals in uniform among the delegates — when he declared, “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
Xi conspicuously failed to say, as past Chinese leaders sometimes have, that unification should be achieved by working with the people of Taiwan. 

But he did say that unification should be peaceful, and he did not mention a previous commitment by Beijing to use armed force should Taiwan ever declare formal independence.
Beijing officials have pursued a more confrontational policy toward Taiwan ever since Ms. Tsai, of the Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president two years ago. 

Her party has a long history of favoring formal independence for Taiwan, although Ms. Tsai herself is a technocrat who has emphasized trying to strengthen the economy.
But Beijing officials have been biding their time about confronting Taiwan too publicly this year as they await the results of Taipei’s mayoral election in November. 

The race is likely to be closely contested by the Nationalist Party, which favors a more cooperative relationship with the mainland, and which Beijing officials are eager to see back in power in Taiwan.