Two Chinas Policy

U.S. warship sails through Taiwan Strait after election

By Emerson Lim, Chiang Chin-yeh, Su Long-chi, Wang Yang-yu and Yu Hsiang

Taipei -- Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) and the U.S. 7th Fleet confirmed Friday that a United States warship recently sailed through the Taiwan Strait, less than one week after Taiwan's 2020 presidential and legislative elections.
The move was interpreted by some Taiwanese lawmakers as a warning to Beijing.
The transit happened Thursday with the U.S. warship approaching southwest of Taiwan and sailing north through the Taiwan Strait, a MND statement said Friday.
The MND did not identify the U.S. military vessel but said it was conducting "normal" navigation operations and Taiwan's Armed Forces fully monitored its movement.
Joe Keiley, spokesperson of the U.S. 7th Fleet, confirmed the transit in response to a query from CNA.
"The Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh (CG 67) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit Jan. 16 in accordance with international law," Keiley said in a statement.
"The ship's transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The U.S. Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows," he said.
The USS Shiloh is a forward deployed Ballistic Missile Defense Cruiser stationed out of Yokosuka, Japan.
The vessel's transit through the Taiwan Strait came five days after Taiwan's 2020 presidential and legislative elections, in which President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文, who ran for reelection, and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a landslide victory.
Following the elections, many foreign and domestic analysts predicted that Beijing is likely to increase pressure on Taiwan, with the flexing of military muscle a possible option.
Meanwhile, Taiwan legislators expressed different views on the U.S. warship's transit through the Taiwan Strait.
DPP lawmaker Tsai Shih-ying 蔡適應 said the transit showed Washington's support for Taiwan's democratic process, adding that the U.S. action provided a sense of security for the Taiwanese people.
Another DPP lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng 羅致政 said the timing of the transit could be read as the U.S. telling China not to overreact to the results of Taiwan's election, as Beijing has issued harsh statements over the past few days.

Tsai is world’s 8th-greatest leader: ‘Fortune’

‘BOLD MOVE’:The magazine cited Tsai Ing-wen’s phone call to US president Donald Trump, economic reforms and the wooing of tourists from Southeast Asia
Taipei Times

President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 was listed eighth in a list of the world’s 50 greatest leaders in Fortune magazine’s latest annual ranking.
The list was released on Thursday, the New York-based business magazine’s fourth annual ranking of world leaders.
The section introducing the Taiwanese president said that Tsai captured headlines in December last year when she telephoned US president Donald Trump, the first known call between Taiwanese and US leaders since 1979.
That year, Washington withdrew diplomatic recognition from Taipei in favor of Beijing.
“It was a bold move for Taiwan’s first female president, who is steering a cautious path between the US and China,” Fortune said.
Describing Tsai as sympathetic to independence, the magazine said that when Beijing tried to punish Taiwan after her election victory in January last year by restricting the number of Chinese visiting the nation, she wooed tourists from Southeast Asia and sparked a tourism boom.
Tsai has also pushed economic reforms, including shortening the workweek to five days from six, it added.
The list covers government, philanthropy, business and the arts, and focuses on “men and women who are transforming the world and inspiring others to do the same,” Fortune said.
Other leaders on the list include German Chancellor Angela Merkel, ranked 10th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, at 31st, and Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, 45th.
Heading the list are Theo Epstein, president of baseball operations for the Chicago Cubs, last year’s World Series champions; Jack Ma 馬雲, executive chairman of China-based e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 阿里巴巴; and Pope Francis.
In April last year, Time magazine listed Tsai among the 100 most influential people in the world that year.
In June of the same year, she was ranked the 17th-most powerful woman in the world by US magazine Forbes.

Analysts See Trump Comments on One China as Part of Bigger Game

By William Ide and Joyce Huang

Combination of three 2016 file photos showing Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, left, U.S. President Donald Trump, center, and Xi Jinping.

BEIJING — President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States doesn’t necessarily need to be bound by a “One China” policy, which was key to the establishment of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing, has the Chinese leadership on edge and some wondering whether a rethink is on the horizon regarding relations with Taiwan.
Analysts say a Trump presidency could see ties with democratically ruled Taiwan enhanced, but doubt there will be a serious departure from the policy, noting the wide range of areas where the world’s two biggest economies cooperate and how much they need each other. 

What it does suggest, they say, is that a bigger game is afoot.
Trump told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday: “I don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.”

One China rethink
When the United States established ties with China in 1979, it cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan, recognizing the communist-led People’s Republic of China as the sole government of China, or “one China.”

President Nixon sits between Chinese Premier Chou En-lai and Chiang Ching, wife of Chairman Mao Tse-tung, at a cultural show in the Great Hall of the People, Feb. 22, 1972 in Peking as an interlude in the talks between the two countries leaders.
From Beijing’s perspective, “One China” means Taiwan is part of its own territory.
The United States acknowledges that position, but also maintains close cultural and commercial ties with Taipei. 

It also supplies Taiwan with military hardware and some have long felt that ties should be enhanced.
Trump’s recent phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, a first by any president since Washington switched ties to Beijing, and now remarks about the “One China” policy — which has been a centerpiece of relations for decades -- has some feeling that just might happen.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump through a speaker phone in Taipei, Taiwan. 

“I don’t think that he will overturn the ‘One China’ policy completely, and only recognize Taiwan and not the People’s Republic of China, but it is possible that he will elevate relations with Taiwan,” said Zhang Lifan, a Chinese historian and commentator in Beijing.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political scientist at Hong Kong Baptist University, said there are those in the United States who would like to make relations with Taiwan more transparent and more like “state to state relations.”
“Of course the Chinese will not be happy, but I think it is a way of telling the Chinese, the ‘One China’ policy that the Chinese adhere shouldn’t be taken for granted,” he said. 

“There are a number of things that were decided for convenience in the 1970s and in the 80s, which may be revisited today because the reality on the ground is very different.”
The United States and China established ties at a time when both Taipei and Beijing were under authoritarian rule. 

Since then, however, Taiwan has become one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. 

And the political paths of both are diverging, not converging.
A man rides a scooter near containers at Keelung port, northern Taiwan, Oct. 30, 2015.
Still, just how many politicians in the United States might support a complete overhaul is unclear, Cabestan adds, as the policy has long enjoyed bipartisan support.
Tseng Chien-yuan, an associate professor at Chung Hua University in Taiwan, said it seems that Trump is treating the “One China” policy more like a political bargaining chip.
"I think he [Trump] will have to adjust his policies in accordance with China's reactions and look after the U.S.'s best interest,” Tseng said.

No good option
Zhang said that when Trump spoke with Taiwan’s president it was like he was starting to take bets, but now with his remarks about “one China” and trade, he has clearly put his cards on the table.
Trump’s comments have sparked a strong backlash from Beijing, with the foreign ministry voicing its “serious concern” and state media suggesting that if he did dump the policy as president, China could sell weapons to “forces hostile to the U.S.” 

The remarks have also whipped up concern from foreign affairs "experts" in the United States and abroad because Beijing sees the policy as the “political bedrock of Sino-U.S.” relations.
Zhang calls the move very strategic.
Terry Branstad, the governor of Iowa, speaks to reporters at Trump Tower after a meeting with Donald Trump. Branstad would later be named the United States ambassador to China. 

“He is not president yet and speaking as president-elect he can say what he wants,” Zhang said. Making the comments now gives China some time to be angry and to contemplate its options as well as the costs associated with its choices.
China has never renounced the use of force to take Taiwan and fulfill its claim that the self-ruled island is part of its territory, but Zhang said there are few good options for China’s communist leaders.
"If war should break out in the Taiwan Strait, there will be two consequences. 

One consequence is that the Chinese Communist Party wins a unified country,” but isolates itself from the world because of the conflict. 

“And two is that it is defeated and a new China is born,” one that is no longer ruled by the communist party.

Paramilitary policemen march at the Tiananmen Sqaure before the fourth plenary meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, March 14, 2013.
Analysts note that while there may be a tendency from military and party hardliners in China to call for a tough response, Chinese officials and state media have so far focused more on the economic measures China could use in response and a refusal to cooperate on a wide-range of issues from Iran to North Korea.
Regardless of whether it is Washington or Beijing, in a globalized world and economy, there are few options that don’t cut both ways.
Taiwan is also watching all of this closely to make sure its interests are looked after. 

There are concerns in Taiwan that Trump’s approach could do more harm than good. 

But that really depends on how it all plays out, said Chung Hua University’s Tseng.
“If closer economic cooperation between the U.S. and Taiwan can be forged, a Trump presidency will help Taiwan break away from China’s military and economic containment,” Tseng said.

Nixon in reverse
Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972 spearheaded the beginning of what led to the switch in ties from Taiwan to China. 

At the time, one key reason for establishing relations with Beijing, analysts note, was to counter Russia. 

Now that may be happening again, but in reverse.
Mao Zedong shake hands with Richard Nixon after their meeting in Beijing 22 February 1972 during the U.S. President's official visit in China.

“The Trump administration is trying to start with China as a way of maybe putting more pressure on China, isolate China from more countries, from key partners like Russia, bringing back Russia,” said Hong Kong Baptist University’s Cabestan.
He added that while there are many uncertainties, what is clear is that Trump is prepared to play hardball with China on both trade and strategic issues.
“There is a whole game at play here, which is unfolding,” he said.
On the campaign trail, president Trump sent clear signals that he wants to improve ties with Russia. On Tuesday, he appointed ExxonMobil Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson as his Secretary of State. 

Tillerson is friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation at their meeting in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Monday, April 16, 2012. 

Two Chinas Policy

WHAT TAIWAN’S PRESIDENT SEES IN DONALD TRUMP
By Nick Frisch

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call to President Donald Trump, which riled both Washington and Beijing, suggests a hidden streak of boldness.

Last week, Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of Taiwan, a self-ruling island of twenty-three million people off China’s southeast coast, called President-elect Donald Trump, who by taking the call shattered a decades-long Washington taboo. 

The news thrilled millions of Taiwanese citizens, who have long complained that the United States has neglected the world’s only Chinese-speaking democracy in order to please authorities in Beijing. China, which has claimed Taiwan as an unrecovered province since Chiang Kai-shek’s Chinese Nationalist Party government fled into exile on the island, in 1949, relentlessly uses its global clout, and its United Nations Security Council veto, to keep Taiwan diplomatically invisible, and Chinese officials protest noisily against any foreign government whose actions might confer on Taiwan even a whiff of statehood. 

Fewer than two dozen countries, most of them tiny, officially recognize Taiwan. 

The United States is not among them. 

For Tsai, getting Trump on the phone was a major coup, the first known top-level contact of its kind since the severing of formal diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei, in 1979.
On the surface, Tsai would seem an unlikely ally for Trump. 

A former World Trade Organization negotiator, she generally supports free trade and was a prominent backer of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. 

She favors robust American engagement along the Pacific Rim, a strong welfare state, and strict environmental protection. 

She is also temperamentally Trump’s opposite: a methodical, soft-spoken technocrat who is childless and unmarried, enjoys reading classical Chinese literature, and sometimes seems to shrink under a spotlight. 

But a land as small and vulnerable as Taiwan cannot afford to be picky about its allies—some of the smallest and most despotic regimes in the world (Swaziland’s, for instance) have received generous aid from Taiwan in exchange for diplomatic recognition and an occasional mention in speeches at the United Nations. 

By making a phone call to Trump, Tsai saw an opportunity to boost her domestic approval ratings while establishing a rapport with the next American President and, crucially, his China-skeptic advisers. 

For her, geopolitics and Taiwan’s survival come first.
Tsai, who is sixty years old, took office earlier this year, after winning a landslide vote in January. 

A former corporate attorney and law professor, she is the first woman elected to lead an Asian state without following a father, brother, or husband into politics. 

Born to a native Taiwanese family, Tsai came up through the élite institutions that were once dominated by the children of mainlander refugees, like National Taiwan University, from which she graduated in 1978. 

She continued her studies at Cornell and the London School of Economics. 

A generation earlier, a woman of Tsai’s abilities might have joined Chiang’s Nationalist Party, which groomed talented native-born Taiwanese to fill its graying senior ranks of mainlander exiles. 

Tsai, however, rose to the Presidency via the Democratic Progressive Party (D.P.P.), which began as an underground movement during the decades in which Taiwan was effectively a one-party police state, and which became Taiwan’s second political party after a contentious democratization process took place in the nineteen-eighties and nineties.
Where Nationalist Party ideology ties Taiwan’s identity to China, the D.P.P. emphasizes local Taiwanese culture and progressive civic values, like support for gay marriage. 

The D.P.P.’s party platform also calls for official de jure independence to match Taiwan’s de facto self-rule—though Tsai herself has never endorsed this proposal. 

In fact, during her run for President last year, Tsai explicitly promised to maintain the cross-Strait status quo, a delicate entente that allows trade and peace between Beijing, Washington, and Taipei.
But during her campaign Tsai also spoke to economic and cultural themes that in some way echo Trump’s, minus the rhetoric of raw bigotry. 

Both politicians distrust China’s economic policies and strategic intentions. 

On the stump last year, Tsai argued that Taiwan had become too economically exposed to mainland China, enriching a politically connected élite at the expense of working people. (In tandem with its ever-present military threat, Beijing encourages broad economic ties with Taiwan as a way to peacefully lure the island back into the fold; the mainland is now Taiwan’s biggest trading partner.)
Unfettered trade with China, Tsai argued, had hollowed out Taiwan’s domestic industries. 

Manufacturing jobs had disappeared and had not been replaced with adequate employment. 

A sclerotic and aloof government in Taipei, she charged, was protecting corporate cronies who were too close to China, while ignoring the pocketbooks and dignity of normal Taiwanese. 

Tsai pressed her candidacy with insider authority, highlighting her credentials, including her time as the head of Taiwan’s powerful Mainland Affairs Council, which manages relations with China. 

She had the expertise, she told voters, to help nudge Taiwan’s economy away from its covetous neighbor, and toward democratic allies like the United States, Japan, and India.
Tsai had run unsuccessfully on this argument once before, in 2012. 

That year, she lost decisively to the Nationalist Party candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, whose historical ties to the mainland made him Beijing’s preferred choice. 

But in 2014, as China’s economy flagged and Xi Jinping pressed a harsh crackdown on civil liberties, Taiwanese anxieties boiled over into protests that immobilized the parliament in Taipei. 

The unrest put the brakes on a trade bill that, critics charged, went too far in opening sensitive local industries, like the media, to mainland-Chinese investment. 

This year, a cresting wave of economic angst, and distrust of Beijing’s strategic intentions, brought Tsai to power and gave the D.P.P. its first-ever parliamentary majority. 

But, with Beijing hostile and Washington skeptical, she faced a tricky path forward.
Communist Party leaders in Beijing openly despise Tsai and the D.P.P. 

After her election, Chinese state media called Taiwanese independence a “hallucination,” and predicted that the rule of the D.P.P. would be “as fleeting as a cloud.” 

A columnist for Xinhua, Beijing’s official news agency, later warned that Tsai, who is unmarried, “does not currently have the pull of love, or know the burdens of family or the care of children, which makes her style and policies too emotional, too individual, and too extreme.” 

Chinese authorities fear that Tsai, despite her public moderation, intends to covertly consolidate Taiwan’s separateness from China, steering Taiwan toward independence and awaiting a geopolitical opening to stand in the world as a zhengchang guojia—a normal country.
Beijing’s leaders see Taiwan as crucial to their own legitimacy. 

The necessity and inevitability of eventual reunification with Taiwan has been inculcated in all mainland Chinese through decades of propaganda; it is written into China’s constitution, and a 2005 “anti-secession” law mandates invasion if Taiwan formally secedes. 

Yet today reunification seems further away than ever. 

Taiwan’s population is a blend of mainlander exiles from 1949, Hokkien and Hakka Chinese who arrived as maritime migrants generations ago, Austronesian aboriginals, descendants of Japanese and European colonists, and economic migrants from Southeast Asia. 

Together, they overwhelmingly identify as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese.” 

Beijing’s standing offer to Taiwan—reunification under the “one country, two systems” approach used to regain the colony of Hong Kong from London—has little appeal to Taiwan’s people, who see rising repression in the former British territory despite China’s promises of local autonomy.
Trump’s election, and his breezy bulldozing of political norms, gave Tsai an opening that she never would have had with Hillary Clinton, and an opportunity to deliver on her campaign pledge to uphold Taiwanese dignity on the international stage. 

According to the Washington Post, her call to Trump was planned weeks in advance and was brokered between Tsai’s aides and a circle of American experts who see Taiwan as a natural ally of the United States. 

In the wake of the call, Tsai’s aides publicly feigned bewilderment at the international uproar it had caused. 

But Tsai knew full well that the call would rile both Beijing and Washington’s foreign-policy professionals. 

That she made it anyway suggests a hidden streak of boldness that her most fervent supporters have hoped for, and that Beijing has long feared.

Two Chinas Policy

China and Donald Trump
By Michael Curtis

Rarely in history has a ten-minute phone call, like that on Friday December 2, 2016, been credited with raising fears of new tensions in international politics. 

According to the New York Times on December 4, 2016, the “protocol shattering” phone call between president Donald Trump and the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive party, is “rattling Asia.”
Irrespective of whether the telephone call was well planned for tactical reasons, orchestrated by former Senator Bob Dole, or a diplomatic gaffe on the part of Trump, or a clever political overture by Tsai Ing-wen to strengthen relations with the U.S., or simply a polite message of congratulations to Trump on his victory, the New York Times, the mainstream media, and the political correct have erred once again in their assessment of a minor event.
So far, the anticipated shaking, rattling, and rocking in Asia has not materialized. 

Instead, a short, polite congratulatory courtesy call from a democratically elected head of a friendly political entity has been transformed into high drama, drawing attention to China policy. 

The short phone call did not ignite any activity except in the U.S. mainstream media.

Political language, George Orwell asserted, is designed to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. 

One can ask wherefore is the telephone call from Tsai different from the many other similar calls that Donald Trump received from leaders in the world, including Communist China and Russia.
At the outset two things are important. 

Since the U.S. Constitution says nothing to the contrary, the critics of the Tsai phone call, whatever their political views, should acknowledge that U.S. citizens, even a president, have a perfect right to talk to whoever they like. 

American citizens certainly do not need approval of the Communist China regime, or even the New York Times, before making or taking phone calls. 

Critics of the Tsai phone call should explain why this call is different from all the other congratulatory calls to Trump from leaders around the world, including Communist China and Russia.
Trump was not naïve in accepting the call and it was not a gaffe, but rather a signal of political goodwill towards Taiwan. 

It was certainly not as purposeful as the actions by Barack Obama in reestablishing diplomatic relations with Cuba severed in January 1961, exchanging embassies, restoring commercial flights, negotiating agreements on a number of issues, or aiming to promote a “democratic,” prosperous, and stable Cuba.
The second matter is that Trump addressed Tsai as “president” of Taiwan, thus indicating recognition of Taiwan as a distinct political entity and independent state. 

Does this suggest a change in U.S. policy and stronger support for Taiwan or simply recognition of the legal position of Tsai?
At the core of the issue is the definition of the “true” China. 

Taiwan was founded by the Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese nationalist party led by Chiang Kai-shek that had ruled the Asian mainland until overthrown by the Communist party led by Mao Zedong. 

The KMT fled and established their own political system, now a country of 23 million with its own political and military structure. 

The inherent dilemma is that all recognize Taiwan is a province of China, but there is no unanimity on what is China. 

Is the concept of “One China” fact or fiction?
For the U.S. the issue seemed to be resolved in 1979 with the agreement between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong and Deng Xioping that recognized China as one sole legitimate country. and the U.S. had no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. 

The Communist People’s Republic was recognized as the official country while Taiwan, that had held the seat in the UN for “China” until 1971, was named as the Republic of China. 

Official ties between the U.S. and Taiwan were abrogated.
What is important is that the U.S. does not specifically or legally approve the policy of “One China.” It simply accepts that the two sides, China and Taiwan, agree on the concept. 

Moreover, the 1979 Agreement upholds the right of the U.S. to maintain cultural, commercial, and unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. 

President Trump must do this and more.
Those relations are ongoing with Taiwan, which is now the U.S.’s 9th largest trading partner. 

In 2016 the U.S. exported $21,344 million of products to Taiwan and imported $32,580 million, a deficit for the U.S. of $11,236 million. 

The U.S. sold Taiwan $12 billion in arms, and by the 1970 agreement, the U.S. is obliged to helped Taiwan to defend itself. 

After early years of authoritarianism, Taiwan can be said to have become part of the democratic world. as was shown by the first direct presidential elections in 1996.
The Trump administration has to deal with the yearning of Taiwan to be recognized as a sovereign political state. 

Taiwan already has diplomatic relations with 22 countries, though they are small and developing ones, and has signed 23 agreements with China to which it sends 40% of its exports. 

Trump must consider adding the U.S. to the 22 countries.
Throughout his electoral campaign, Trump underscored his criticism of China, its currency manipulation, and trade sanctions. 

His promise was to “bring back jobs” from China. 

A persistent theme was the threat of imposing a 45% tariff on Chinese goods. 

The fundamental problem is that China, with 1.3 billion people, is now the world’s largest economy and expanding, though with variations, at 6.5-7 % a year. 

Its GDP is over $20 trillion, while that of the U.S. is $18.5 trillion. 

However, Chinese GDP per capita is $15,000, while that of the U.S. is $57,000.
Trump must face reality. 

China is the world’s largest trading power: 130 countries have China as their most important bilateral trading partner, more than double the figure for the U.S. 

Moreover, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor while China is a creditor, the largest buyer of U.S. debts, and holds 10 % of U.S. national debt, and has largest foreign currency reserves. 

The U.S imports 18% of China’s exports.
China is militarily and technologically strong, with its aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, cyber weapons, fighters, intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles, and powerful fast supercomputers.
Trump has made overwhelmingly clear U.S. economic problems of trade with China, its currency manipulation, and military buildup. 

Already he suggests tariff on goods imported from U.S. companies located abroad, particularly in China and Mexico. 

Trump’s main argument has been to bring back jobs from China.
Trump must counter the Chinese challenges, especially in the South China Seas and the Spratly Islands, more than 100 small islands or reefs, 500 miles from the Chinese mainland, where China is building and expanding reefs to provide radar and military facilities, and where it claims almost all the potentially resource rich waters.
Trump must also consider a shift in diplomatic relations with Taiwan, strengthening its democratic character, and also expanding the U.S. Navy in the East and South China Seas. 

This will take more than a 10-minute phone call.

Two Chinas Policy

There is one China and one Taiwan. Let’s all stop pretending otherwise.
By Jeff Jacoby

Student groups perform during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Palace in Taipei on Oct. 10.

Trump’s few minutes on the telephone Friday with Tsai Ing-wen, who phoned by prearrangement to congratulate the incoming US chief executive, sent the foreign-policy establishment into meltdown mode.

For the first time in nearly 40 years, an American president had spoken directly with his Taiwanese counterpart, and the reaction in many quarters was hysteria. 

“These are major pivots in foreign policy w/out any plan,” tweeted an alarmed US Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. 

“That’s how wars start.”
In truth, wars are made more likely when the United States appeases powerful and dangerous aggressors at the expense of weaker but peaceful allies. 

For eight years, Obama has largely pursued such a foreign policy, bending over backward to accommodate brutal regimes — in Iran, Russia, Cuba — while ignoring or abusing friends from Kiev to Aleppo to the prison cells of Havana. 

The result has been a world more violent, fanatic, and unstable.
For years, under presidents of both parties, Washington has gone along with China’s demand that Taiwan be marginalized and embarrassed in the international arena. 

It is a shameful policy in its own right, and it retards American interests in the Far East by encouraging China to advance its goals through bullying and intimidation. 

If Trump’s gesture last week signals that the United States will no longer collaborate in the snubbing of Taiwan, foreign-policy realists should be the first to applaud.
There is a place for creative fictions in diplomacy, but the so-called “one-China” policy is a good example of one that years ago outlived its efficacy. 

There was a time when Beijing and Taipei each claimed to be the sole legitimate government of both the Chinese mainland and the island across the Taiwan Strait. 

It wasn’t factually true, but American policy makers found it useful to pretend otherwise. 

Thus, from 1949 to 1979, Washington maintained the diplomatic charade that China’s rightful government was in Taipei. 

In 1979 the US position was reversed under Jimmy Carter; the fig-leaf became that Beijing was the authentic government of “one China.”
In the wake of a savage civil war that left both mainland China and Taiwan ruled by dictatorial regimes vowing to destroy each other, America’s “One China” posture may have been defensible. 

But it has been 67 years since Chiang Kai-shek’s flight to Taiwan, and his authoritarian regime is a dusty memory. 

Taiwan is now a free and democratic republic, a thriving nation in which human rights are protected, civil liberties enforced, and freedom of conscience guaranteed. 

It is a trustworthy American ally and our 10th-largest trading partner; its intentions toward China are those of a respectful and peaceable neighbor.

President Tsai Ing-wen

In every respect that matters, Taiwan is a sovereign, independent, civilized nation. 

There should be no hesitation about saying so — not by Taiwan, and not by its friends. 

The kowtowing to Beijing should have ended decades ago. 

Yes, Trump’s protectionist trade rhetoric toward China (and other countries) is deplorable, and Congress should staunchly resist his threats to impose choking tariffs on Chinese exports. 

But it should just as staunchly support Trump in normalizing relations between Taiwan and the United States.
The “One China” sham is obsolete. 

A full-fledged diplomatic mission — not a back-of-the-bus “economic and cultural office” — should represent Taiwan in Washington. 

High-level American and Taiwanese officials should be welcomed as guests in both countries. 

The State Department should press for Taiwan’s admission to the UN and other international bodies. 

The new president and defense secretary should appear together at the Pentagon early next year to confirm that America’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense — a commitment mandated by the Taiwan Relations Act more than 35 years ago — is unwavering.
No more fig leaf. 

Beijing may be the sole legitimate government of China, but China stops at the Taiwan Strait. 

There is one China and one Taiwan. 

Let’s all stop pretending otherwise.

Two Chinas Policy

Trump’s Taiwan call was brilliant.
By Marc A. Thiessen

President Donald Trump

Relax.
Breathe.
Donald Trump’s phone call with the president of Taiwan wasn’t a blunder by an inexperienced president unschooled in the niceties of cross-straits diplomacy.
It was a deliberate move — and a brilliant one at that.
The phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen was reportedly carefully planned, and Trump was fully briefed before the call, according to The Post. 

It’s not that Trump was unfamiliar with the “Three Communiques” or unaware of the fiction that there is “One China.” 

Trump knew precisely what he was doing in taking the call. 

He was serving notice on Beijing that it is dealing with a different kind of president — an outsider who will not be encumbered by the same Lilliputian diplomatic threads that tied down previous administrations. 

The message, as John Bolton correctly put it, was that “the president of the United States [will] talk to whomever he wants if he thinks it’s in the interest of the United States, and nobody in Beijing gets to dictate who we talk to.”
Amen to that.
And if that message was lost on Beijing, Trump underscored it on Sunday, tweeting: “Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into their country (the U.S. doesn’t tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don’t think so!” 

He does not need Beijing’s permission to speak to anyone. 

No more kowtowing in a Trump administration.
Trump promised during the campaign that he would take a tougher stand with China, and supporting Taiwan has always been part of his get-tough approach to Beijing. 

As far back as 2011, Trump tweeted: “Why is @BarackObama delaying the sale of F-16 aircraft to Taiwan? Wrong message to send to China. #TimeToGetTough.” 

Indeed, the very idea that Trump could not speak to Taiwan’s president because it would anger Beijing is precisely the kind of weak-kneed subservience that Trump promised to eliminate as president.
Trump’s call with the Taiwanese president sent a message not only to Beijing, but also to the striped-pants foreign-policy establishment in Washington. 

It is telling how so many in that establishment immediately assumed Trump had committed an unintended gaffe. 

“Bottomless pig-ignorance” is how one liberal foreign-policy commentator described Trump’s decision to speak with Tsai. 

Trump just shocked the world by winning the presidential election, yet they still underestimate him. 

The irony is that the hyperventilation in Washington has far outpaced the measured response from Beijing. 

When American foreign-policy "elites" are more upset than China, perhaps it’s time for some introspection.
The hypocrisy is rank. 

When Obama broke with decades of U.S. policy and extended diplomatic recognition to a murderous dictatorship in Cuba, the foreign-policy establishment swooned. 

Democrats on Capitol Hill praised Obama for taking action that was “long overdue.” 

Jimmy Carter raved about how Obama had “shown such wisdom,” while the New York Times gushed that Obama was acting “courageously” and “ushering in a transformational era for millions of Cubans who have suffered as a result of more than 50 years of hostility between the two nations.”
But when Trump broke with decades of U.S. diplomatic practice and had a phone call with the democratically elected leader of Taiwan, he was declared a buffoon. 

Well, if they didn’t like that phone call, his critics may hate what could come next even more. 

Trump now has an opportunity to do with Taiwan what Obama did with Cuba — normalize relations.
There are a number of steps the Trump administration can take to strengthen our military, economic and diplomatic ties with Taiwan. 

My American Enterprise Institute colleague Derek Scissors has suggested that Trump could negotiate a new free-trade agreement with Taiwan. 

“Taiwan’s tiny population means there is no jobs threat,” Scissors says, but Taiwan is also the United States’ ninth-largest trading partner. 

A free-trade agreement would be economically beneficial to both sides and would send a message to friend and foe alike in Asia that, despite Trump’s planned withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the United States is not withdrawing from the region.
On the military front, Trump could begin sending general officers to Taipei once again to coordinate with their Taiwanese counterparts and hold joint military exercises. 

On the diplomatic front, Bolton says the new administration could start “receiving Taiwanese diplomats officially at the State Department; upgrading the status of U.S. representation in Taipei from a private ‘institute’ to an official diplomatic mission; inviting Taiwan’s president to travel officially to America; allowing the most senior U.S. officials to visit Taiwan to transact government business; and ultimately restoring full diplomatic recognition.”
Beijing would be wise not to overreact to any overtures Trump makes to Taiwan. 

When China tested President George W. Bush in his first months in office by scrambling fighters and forcing a U.S. EP-3 aircraft to land on the Chinese island of Hainan, its actions backfired. 

After the incident, Bush approved a $30 billion arms package for Taiwan, announced that Taiwan would be treated as a major non-NATO ally and declared that the United States would do “whatever it took” to defend Taiwan. 

His actions not only strengthened U.S. ties with Taiwan but also set the stage for good relations with Beijing throughout his presidency.
China does not want to make the same mistake and overplay its hand with Trump. 

Trump’s call with Taiwan’s president was a smart, calculated move designed to send a clear message: The days of pushing the United States around are over.
That may horrify official Washington, but it’s the right message to send.

Two Chinas Policy

Hold the phone! Donald Trump’s call to Taiwan was the right thing
By GERSH KUNTZMAN

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks on the phone with U.S. president Donald Trump. There’s a reason she’s smiling. The rest of us should be, too. 

“Hello, Madame President, goodbye 30 years of wrong-headed American policy.”
I am a relentless critic of Donald Trump, but with just a brief phone call to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the President has done something very right: He has upset an applecart filled with worms.
Sure, the taboo conversation may be Trump’s “broken-clock” moment, after the old saying that even a stopped timepiece is right twice a day. 

But until that call, no president had (at least officially) spoken to a Taiwanese leader since 1979.
Most Americans didn’t even realize that, given how normal our relations are with Taiwan in virtually every other way. 

This is Taiwan, we’re talking about, people, not North Korea.
Taiwan — a democracy, lest we forget — is our ninth-largest trading partner. 

We did $86.9 billion in trade with these free Chinese people last year. 

And the Department of Commerce estimates that our trade with Taiwan supports 217,000 U.S. jobs.
That’s a lot more jobs than you get bribing Carrier to stay in Indiana.
I’m a little older than most of you, but when I was growing up, the State Department’s 1959 policy was still in effect. 

It stated that the capital of the China we liked was in Taiwan and that the island (which we called Formosa) did not belong to the Chinese Communists whom we didn’t like.
Then, just as Trump did last week with his phone call, Richard Nixon dispatched years of Sino-U.S. relations by visiting the mainland in 1972. 

“Nixon in China.” 

Look it up. It was a real thing.
Seven years later, Jimmy Carter officially moved our embassy from Taipei to Beijing, and the “one-China policy” was enshrined.

Donald Trump hasn’t been right about much since Election Day. But his call to Taiwan was. 

Every president since has kept up the charade — trading with Taiwan, but not recognizing its existence.
So, what did we get for all this one-Chinaing? 

Not a lot.
China remains a repressive regime that violates international trade rules, swipes our copyrights left and right like a horny indecisive man on Tinder, threatens our allies, engages in cyber-terrorism, and even builds fake islands in the Pacific in an illegal bid to alter its borders.
Oh, and China is the world’s largest polluter, thanks in part to all the cheap crap they manufacture for us.
So Trump spoke to the leader of one of our major trading partners. 

You’d think from the outrage that he had called the prime minister of Pakistan and told him, “You are doing amazing work which is visible in every way.”
Actually, Trump did that one — which was idiotic, given that Nawaz Sharif presides over what Republicans call a terrorist nation. 

OK, that was bad.
But the headlines about Trump’s chat with Taiwan’s President Tsai suggest that he messed up again:
“Trump phone call to Taiwan likely to infuriate China,” wrote Business Insider.

The other Chinese — the Communists in Beijing — have been building fake islands in the Pacific to expand their borders and, they hope, their influence.

“China lodges complaint over Trump-Taiwan call,” CNN posted.
“Trump Speaks With Taiwan's Leader, an Affront to China,” the Times added.
Yes, it was an intentionally provocative move, ending an era when America capitulates to Chinese threats to our intellectual property, to our workers and to our allies.
Officially, U.S. policy remains, “The United States does not support Taiwan independence.”
Until Jan. 20, 2017, that is.
Since Election Day, Trump’s broken clock has been wrong most of the time.
But if a simple phone call with the president of a friendly nation can piss off China, Trump may be a better negotiator than we expected.

China tries to 'divide and rule' Taiwan by befriending pro-Beijing towns

By J.R. Wu | TAIPEI

Taiwan's landmark building Taipei 101 is seen during sunset in Taipei, Taiwan April 19, 2016. 
China is embarking on a divide-and-rule campaign on self-ruled Taiwan, offering to boost tourism to pro-Beijing towns and counties while giving the new pro-independence government the cold shoulder, government officials and politicians say.
Whether Beijing's promises materialize remains to be seen, but the political rift is pressing Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to come up with measures of its own to counter an alarming decline in mainland tourists.
Eight Taiwanese local government officials, mainly representing counties controlled by the China-friendly opposition Nationalist Party KMT, were promised greater tourism and agricultural ties when they met China's top Taiwan policymaker in Beijing last month.
And this week, Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet Nationalist Party chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu when she visits Beijing during an annual party-to-party gathering about economic and cultural ties.
In contrast, Beijing has withheld official communication with the government of DPP leader and President Tsai Ing-wen, until it agrees to recognize the "one-China" policy.
"The Chinese government has put political conditions relevant to Taiwan surrendering our sovereignty and our right to determine our own future on the outflow of tourists to Taiwan and that's what makes this a very politically complicated issue," said Hsiao Bi-khim, a DPP lawmaker for Hualien, on Taiwan's east coast.
Hsiao and the Hualien county chief, an ex-Nationalist who went to Beijing last month, do not see eye to eye on tourism development.
"We have to condemn this divide-and-conquer strategy and also individual politicians who seek to play into the Chinese divide-and-conquer strategy," Hsiao said.

The Two Chinas
China says Taiwan is part of one China, ruled by Beijing. 

It regards the island as a renegade province, to be united by force if necessary, and ties have become strained since Tsai took office in May.
The previous Nationalist administration agreed to recognize the "1992 consensus", which states that there is only one China, with each side having its own interpretation of what that means.
The eight officials who went to Beijing came home to a storm of criticism for being lackeys to Beijing's one-China policy.
One of them, Liu Tseng-ying, chief of Matsu, a group of small islets off China's Fujian province but held by Taiwan, told Chinese officials that he wanted more Chinese to visit Taiwan's smallest county.
"I said I hoped Chinese tourists can increase to 40 percent of the total," Liu told Reuters.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office head Zhang Zhijun agreed to expand trade and travel specifically between China's Fujian province and Matsu and Kinmen. 

Both Taiwan-controlled islands lie closer to China than Taiwan.
Group tourists from mainland China, which Beijing can effectively control via state-run Chinese travel agencies, fell 71 percent year-on-year from October 1-18, Taiwan data showed, coinciding with China's National Day holiday, a Golden Week for travel for Chinese.
The sector was also hit by a bus fire in Taiwan in July that killed 24 mainland tourists. 

The driver, among the victims, had poured petrol inside the bus and locked its emergency exits before setting it alight, prosecutors said.
The severity of the decline in tourism led to a major protest in September and prompted the government to pledge T$30 billion ($960 million) in loans to the industry and work on attracting tourists from other Asian countries.