China Must Either Trim Its South China Sea Sails Or Face Disaster

By Panos Mourdoukoutas

China’s leaders have a grand strategy for the South China Sea. 

They want to control all of it, because they see it as China’s own property. 

And they are prepared to defend every speck of land—real or artificial -- in it.
That’s according to statements by the country’s high-ranking officials recently—vowing to defend every “island and rock” that belongs to China.
But there’s a fundamental problem with Beijing’s grand strategy: it will never succeed in aligning China’s aspirations with its capabilities and resources, and is therefore doomed to fail badly.
That’s what has happened with the grand strategies of previous rising powers, and it will happen with China now.
A failure of Beijing’s South China Sea strategy is a far more serious threat to the global economy and financial markets than the on-going trade disputes.
Yale University Professor John Lewis Gaddis defines grand strategy as “the alignment of potentially unlimited aspirations with necessarily limited capabilities.” 

That’s easier said than done, for a fundamental reason pointed in every introductory economics textbook: desires and aspirations are unlimited, while capabilities are limited.
That’s why a nation – or an individual, for that matter -- should scale back on aspirations to the means available to achieve them, according to Gaddis. 

 “If you seek ends beyond your means, then sooner or later you’ll have to scale back your ends to fit your means.”
Do what’s feasible, that is.
What about raising your means—your capabilities rather than scaling back on your aspirations? 

It won’t work, according to Gaddis.
“Expanding means may attain more ends, but not all because ends can be infinite and means can never be,” he says. 

“Whatever balance you strike, there’ll be a link between what’s real and what’s imagined: between your current location and your intended destination.”
That’s why Xerxes, Persia’s King of Kings, lost the war against the Greeks, according to Gaddis.
“Because ends exist only in the imagination, they can be infinite: a throne on the moon, perhaps, with a great view,” explains Gaddis. 

“Means, though, are stubbornly finite: they’re boots on the ground, ships in the sea, and the bodies required to fill them. Ends and means have to connect if anything is to happen. They’re never, however, interchangeable.”
In the case of South China Sea “war,” China may have a dot, a couple of artificial islands, but it doesn’t have a second dot to draw a line. 

Its aspirations make it one player playing against all the other nations with interests in the region: the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
China is also playing against the navies of US, Japan, France, the UK, and Australia. 

These navies seek to enforce the freedom of navigation in the vast trade waterway. 

Close to $5 trillion in merchandise moves through every year.
The waterway is the beginning of China’s maritime silk road. 

But so are the Indian Ocean ports, and the Middle East and Africa riches. 

Does China have the capabilities to fulfill aspirations in those locations too?
Apparently not.
“China has made great progress in building its military and naval capabilities,” says Yannis Tsinas, a retired Washington diplomat and Greek naval officer. 

“But it isn’t in any position to fight the US and its allies.”
That’s why its leaders should trim the sails on their global aspirations, beginning with the South China Sea, or end up facing disaster, as it did during the Opium Wars.

In rare move, French warship passes through Taiwan Strait

By Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart

Tugboat escorts French Navy frigate Vendemiaire on arrival for a 5-day goodwill visit at a port in Metro Manila, Philippines March 12, 2018. 

WASHINGTON -- A French warship passed through the strategic Taiwan Strait this month, U.S. officials told Reuters, a rare voyage by a vessel of a European country that is likely to be welcomed by Washington but increase tension with Beijing.
The passage, which was confirmed by China, is a sign that U.S. allies are increasingly asserting freedom of navigation in international waterways near China. 

It could open the door for other allies, such as Japan and Australia, to consider similar operations.
The French operation comes amid increasing tensions between the United States and China. 

Taiwan is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the U.S.-China relationship, which also include a trade war, U.S. sanctions and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea, where the United States also conducts freedom of navigation patrols.
Two officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a French military vessel carried out the transit in the narrow waterway between China and Taiwan on April 6.
One of the officials identified the warship as the French frigate Vendemiaire and said it was shadowed by the Chinese military. 

The official was not aware of any previous French military passage through the Taiwan Strait.
The officials said that as a result of the passage, China notified France it was no longer invited to a naval parade to mark the 70 years since the founding of China’s Navy. 

Warships from India, Australia and several other nations participated.
China said on Thursday it had lodged “stern representations” with France for what it called an “illegal” passage.
Colonel Patrik Steiger, the spokesman for France’s military chief of staff, declined to comment on an operational mission.
The U.S. officials did not speculate on the purpose of the passage or whether it was designed to assert freedom of navigation.

MOUNTING TENSIONS
The French strait passage comes against the backdrop of increasingly regular passages by U.S. warships through the strategic waterway. 

Last month, the United States sent Navy and Coast Guard ships through the Taiwan Strait.
The passages upset China, which claims self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory. 

Beijing has been ramping up pressure to assert its "sovereignty" over the island.
Chen Chung-chi, spokesman for Taiwan’s defense ministry, told Reuters by phone the strait is part of busy international waters and it is “a necessity” for vessels from all countries to transit through it. He said Taiwan’s defense ministry will continue to monitor movement of foreign vessels in the region.
“This is an important development both because of the transit itself but also because it reflects a more geopolitical approach by France towards China and the broader Asia-Pacific,” said Abraham Denmark, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia.
The transit is a sign that countries like France are not only looking at China through the lens of trade but from a military standpoint as well, Denmark said.
Last month, France and China signed deals worth billions of euros during a visit to Paris by Chinese dictator Xi Jinping. 

French President Emmanuel Macron wants to forge a united European front to confront Chinese advances in trade and technology.
“It is important to have other countries operating in Asia to demonstrate that this is just not a matter of competition between Washington and Beijing, that what China has been doing represents a broader challenge to a liberal international order,” Denmark, who is with the Woodrow Wilson Center think-tank in Washington, added.
Washington has no formal ties with Taiwan but is bound by law to help provide the island with the means to defend itself and is its main source of arms.

Chinese expansionism

Vietnam Dares What Philippines Didn't
By Panos Mourdoukoutas

In the South China Sea disputes, Vietnam dares to do what the Philippines didn’t: challenge China’s mission to turn the vast waterway into its own sea.
That’s according to a recent Reuters report, which claims that Vietnam is pushing for a pact that will outlaw many of China’s ongoing activities in the South China Sea. 

Like the building of artificial islands, blockades and offensive weaponry such as missile deployments; and the Air Defence Identification Zone—a conduct code China initiated back in 2013.
This isn’t the first time Hanoi is challenging China’s claims in the South China Sea. 

Back in July of 2017, Vietnam granted Indian oil firm ONGC Videsh a two-year extension to explore oil block 128, according to another Reuters report.
And that’s something Beijing loudly opposed.
In recent years, China has considered the South China Sea its own. 

All of it, including the artificial islands Beijing has been building in disputed waters, and the economic resources that are hidden below the vast sea area. 

And it is determined to use its old and new naval powers to make sure that no other country reaches for these resources without its permission.
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte understands Beijing’s determination very well. 

Back in April of 2018 he reversed his earlier decision to raise the Philippine flag in disputed islands, following Beijing’s “friendly” advice.
A year before that incident, the Philippines and its close ally, the U.S., won an international arbitration ruling that China has no historic title over the waters of the South China Sea. 

Yet Duterte didn’t dare enforce it. 

Instead, he sided with Beijing on the dispute, and sought a “divorce” from the U.S.
Duterte’s flip-flops saved peace in the South China Sea by changing the rules of the game for China and the US, at least according to his own wisdom.
That doesn’t seem to be the case with Vietnam– which also claims parts of the waterway.
And it has a strong ally on its side: the US, which has been trying to enforce the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and save peace, too!
So far, financial markets in the region do not seem that concerned, at least for now. 

Instead, they have been focusing on the economic fundamentals rather than the geopolitics of the region; and on the rising interest rates in the US.

China, Vietnam, and Philippines Shares

But things may change in the future, as an escalation of South China Sea disputes could add to investor anxieties fueled by the US-China trade war.

China Will Lose The South China Sea Game

By Panos Mourdoukoutas 

China wants to control the entire South China Sea. 

Every inch of it. 

That’s why will lose all of it, one day.
In the South China Sea game, China is one player playing against all the rest: The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. 

China is also playing against the navies of US, Japan, France, the UK, and Australia. 

These navies seek to enforce the freedom of navigation in the vast trade waterway. 

Close to $5 trillion in merchandise moves through every year.
Why is China playing against everyone else? 

For a couple of reasons. 

One of them is that the waterway is very important to its vision -- becoming the next global economic leader.
It’s the beginning of China’s maritime silk road.
“Insofar as China is concerned, its maritime silk road begins from the South China Sea,” says Vijay Eswaran, Malaysian entrepreneur and Chairman of QI Group of Companies.

“It sees itself playing a more significant role in maritime trade in the future.”
Another reason is that China sees the South China Sea as its own property. 

“China viewed the South China Sea (SCS) as its own,“ adds Vijay. 

All of it, and the resources that are hidden beneath, which China wants to exploit. 

That’s why it is building artificial islands.
And that feeds Chinese nationalism, needed to support and reinforce the political status quo.
What about the overlapping claims from neighboring countries? 

 “China does not see any of the other overlapping claims from the neighboring countries to the South China Sea as a threat,” adds Vijay.
And it uses intimidation to make sure that this won’t happen. 

When China lost a United Nations-linked tribunal international arbitration to the Philippines on the South China Sea disputes a year and a half ago, Beijing took a couple of steps to make sure that Duterte wouldn't do anything with it.
The first step was to threaten Duterte with war should he dare to enforce the ruling. 

The second step was to promise a generous investment to help the Philippines deal with its many problems.
And it worked. Duterte quickly flip-flopped, and forgot all about the ruling, as was written in previous pieces here.
More recently, China applied “Duterte's model” to intimidate Vietnam. 

Last July Vietnam announced that it will stop its oil exploration efforts, following a stark warning by Beijing that it will attack Vietnamese oil and gas bases.
Still, there are multiple navies that are prepared to challenge China’s ambitious mission. 

“It is the potential Western influence, i.e. the US, France and the UK and their navies, that are having more of an impact on Chinese policy in the region.“
Is China prepared to fend off this challenge? 

It’s hard to say.
What isn’t hard to say is that countries that play a game against all end up losing.
That’s what happened in neighboring Japan in the past, and it could happen to China in the future.
Meanwhile, investors in the financial markets of the region should closely watch any developments that will bring China closer to an open confrontation with America and its allies.

Chinese Peril

Australia invests in unmanned spy drones to fly over South China Sea
By Jamie Tarabay

Australia is spending $6.2 billion to acquire six Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Tritons as part of its regional surveillance operations.

Australia is spending billions on unmanned American spy drones that will be able to fly higher and further than its manned aircraft, to beef up its surveillance operations in areas that include the disputed South China Sea.
On Tuesday Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said his government was investing $6 billion to acquire six MQ-4C Tritons, remotely piloted aircraft, from US defense contractor Northrop Grumman, "through a cooperative program with the United States Navy."
The Tritons would complement the current surveillance aircraft Australia already uses to survey its maritime borders, conduct search and rescue, and carry out Freedom of Navigation exercises in the contested South China Sea.
Defense Industry Minister Christopher Pyne told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that the drones, which can travel up to 25,000 miles, will also be used to track foreign ships, smugglers and pirates.
The aircraft, which have a de-icing capability, will fly as far north as the Indian Ocean, and as far south as Antarctica, where the Australian military monitors activity over the country's Exclusive Economic Zone, a marine area of around 4 million square miles.
"It is very important for us to know who is operating in our area and therefore be able to respond if necessary to any threats," Pyne told ABC News.
"Australia insists on its right to be able to travel through the South China Sea in international waters as we have always done, whether that is with surface ships or with aircraft."

Whatever intelligence the Australian Navy is able to glean from its surveillance operations will be shared with the other nations that are members of the "Five Eyes" -- the United States, New Zealand, Canada and the UK.
The acquisition of the drones was first announced by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2014.
"I think there is a view that this is a long time coming, previous prime ministers have been talking about these things, now it's real, not just an idea," said Michael Shoebridge, director of defense and strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
He believes the announcement was prompted by the news that Canberra was spending $150 million of that money on a joint program with the US Navy to develop and sustain the aircraft at the Royal Australian Air Force base in Edinburgh, north of Adelaide, the capital city of South Australia state.
"I don't think this will be news for the Chinese because it's been a public thing that the Australian government has been investing in it," Shoebridge told CNN. 

"It'll just complement the Freedom of Navigation and overflight activities that the Australian Navy and Air Force are doing all the time, but it is making the point that it is having more Australian presence up there."
China has repeatedly challenged Australian warships, most recently in April when three Australian navy vessels were on their way to Vietnam for a goodwill visit.
China claims a great swathe of the South China Sea as its own territory, a claim that overlaps with Vietnamese and Filipino and other regional interests. 

The waters are some of the most hotly contested in the world.
Beijing held its own drills in the disputed territory in April, including a huge military parade overseen by Chinese dictator Xi Jinping.
To reinforce its claims in the region, China has constructed and militarized a series of artificial islands across the South China Sea, building airfields and radar stations. 

Last month US warships sailed past some of the disputed islands, drawing a rebuke from Beijing.
The first of the new spy drones are not expected to come into operation until 2023, Turnbull announced, adding that all six would be delivered and in operation by late 2025.
Shoebridge said that the drones could be operated from South Australia even as they are launched from Darwin, 1,900 miles north of the air force base. 

Currently Darwin is also home to 1,500 American Marines.
The Marines are on their seventh rotation where they train alongside Australian forces as part of a military alliance between the two countries that began with World War I.
Part of that alliance now serves to check China's expanding influence in the Asia-Pacific, of which those freedom of navigation exercises are key.
Australian defense minister Marise Payne announced on Monday that as part of its "long-standing commitment to regional security," facilities at a Malaysian air force base used by the Australian military would get a $16 million upgrade.
"You can't have freedom of navigation and overflight if you don't exercise it," said Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
"It's empty words unless you have physical presence," he said.

Vive la France

The French Navy Stands Up to China

As we steamed through the disputed Spratly Islands, a voice demanded we radio our intentions.
By Jonas Parello-Plesner

Tree Island, in the Paracel island chain of the South China Sea, Jan. 28.

‘This is China warship calling,” a voice bellowed out over the radio. 

“The Spratly islands are under Chinese sovereignty. What are your intentions?” 

The reply from the French military vessel, where I was on the command bridge as an observer last week, was polite but curt. 

The French said their ships were operating in international waters. 

We were passing through the disputed Spratly Islands of the South China Sea when the Chinese frigate dialed in. 

It would not be our last encounter.
Several Chinese frigates and corvettes closely tailed our passage around Mischief, Subi and Fiery Cross Reefs. 

Those specks of land have popped up in international headlines in recent years as Beijing has transformed them into artificial islands with airstrips and military installations.
This past weekend at the Shangri-la Dialogue, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis called out China’s aggression as breaking Xi Jinping’s promises. 

“China’s militarization of the Spratlys,” Mr. Mattis said, is in “direct contradiction to Xi’s 2015 public assurances in the White House Rose Garden that they would not do this.”
Backing up American words, the U.S. rescinded China’s invitation to participate in joint military exercises in the Pacific. 

The U.S. Navy also conducted its own freedom-of-navigation operation in the disputed Paracel Islands, on which China recently landed a strategic bomber. 

Still, the Trump administration has not presented a broader strategy to counter China. 

What is sure is that the U.S. could use allied assistance.
Americans are used to hearing about lazy European allies unwilling to pay for their own defense. They should consider the French action. 

Since 2014, France has sailed regularly through the South China Sea to uphold freedom of navigation. 

France remains a naval power that can project force out of its overseas territories, including French Polynesia, New Caledonia and Réunion Island. 

President Emmanuel Macron is building stronger defense relationships with India and Australia, and he seems to be realistically assessing the growing Chinese challenge. 

This is a welcome change from his predecessors, who were enthralled by the business and investment opportunities in China.
France is rallying other Europeans to put action behind the declarations of free navigation. 

That was the message at the Shangri-la Dialogue from French Defense Minister Florence Parly. 

“The fait accompli is not a fait accepted,” she said, a clear reference to Chinese attempts to deny international access to disputed waters. 

France’s missions could be the foundation for a multinational European operation. 

European Union leaders remain split on how to approach China. 

But as a first step, the French warship I was on included a U.K. helicopter detachment and European observers, including from Germany.
China tries to frame the freedom-of-navigation operations as driven by U.S. expansionism. 

That’s why Beijing protests American exercises while giving those by France, Australia and the U.K. a pass. 

Even an increasing number of Western operations might not break China’s de facto stranglehold on the South China Sea. 

But as French warships have now demonstrated, the coalition for free navigation is growing.

Sina Delenda Est

Great powers stepping up on China
By Peter Hartcher

One nation after another at a weekend conference lined up to denounce China for breaking international law and to reassert "the rules-based order", but a curious pattern quickly emerged.
The further a country from the front line of China's relentless expansion into the South China Sea, the tougher it talked.
The countries who are actually losing their claimed territories to China's military forces were much more diplomatic. 

So diplomatic, in fact, that they tiptoed carefully around the subject and had little or nothing to say.
One of the striking new responses to China's unchecked gains in the region is the rising protest from Europe. 

The annual Shangri-la security dialogue in Singapore heard stern words from the defence ministers of Britain, France and Germany on the weekend. 

All three declared that they will uphold "the rule of law" in the South China Sea.
France and Britain said that they were stepping up naval movements through the zone: "No less than five French ships sailed in this area in 2017," said French Minister for the Armed Forces Florence Parly. 

"European ships are mobilising more widely."
Britain's Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson quipped: "We have been pleased to commit three Royal Navy ships to this region in the last year, although hearing France committed five, I think I have to commit to six" this year.
Parly said that Britain and France, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, were sending naval ships to visit Singapore next week and then into "territorial waters" in the South China Sea. 

They would also be carrying German naval observers.

US warns of 'consequences' if China continues 'intimidation and coercion'
She said that the French vessels expected to come under challenge, just as the US navy was challenged by China's navy last week when they sailed within 12 nautical miles of Woody Island in the Paracels group. 

This is the island, also claimed by Vietnam, where China landed heavy bombers last month.
"At some point a stern voice intrudes into the transponder and tells us to sail away from supposedly ‘territorial waters’,” said Parly. 

“But our commander then calmly replies that he will sail forth, because these, under international law, are indeed international waters.”
Why does Europe care? 

Because, said Britain's Williamson, the commercial shipping artery that runs through the South China Sea is incredibly important: "If there's a problem there, there's a problem for the whole world."
Parly said: "We do it because under international law we know that practice can become accepted. If a fait accompli is not questioned it can be opened. We place ourselves in the position of persistent objector to any claim of de facto sovereignty."

HMS Sutherland

India, a fast-rising power, is a lot closer to the hot zone than Europe, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out a policy that brings it even closer.
Modi described India's interests as defined by the Indo-Pacific, "from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas". 

A vast span that includes, of course, the South China Sea, which he mentioned specifically.
When Modi spoke of the problems in the region, he didn't name China but told the conference that "above all, we see assertion of power over recourse to international norms". 

He called for a "free, open, inclusive region". 

He noted the importance of freedom of navigation.
In competition with China's narrative of its history and values, Modi spelled out India's own historical relationship to the ocean over thousands of years and asserted the "foundation of our civilisational ethos – of pluralism, co-existence, openness and dialogue. The ideals of democracy that define us as a nation also shape the way we engage the world".

French Defence Minister Florence Parly.

Britain's Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson

Narendra Modi, India's Prime Minister, delivers the keynote at the Shangri-la dialogue.

And in a departure from India's long passivity, the Indian leader described an active military outreach: "Indian Armed Forces, especially our navy, are building partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region for peace and security, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief."
While the great powers stepped forward to decry the breakdown of the rules-based order, the front-line casualties were very quiet. 

China's island-building and militarisation has hit the Philippines and Vietnam harder than any other countries, and in past years they were outspoken about it.
The defence ministers of both countries spoke at the conference. Both avoided any mention of their territorial claims. 

They avoided touching on China's forcible island-building and militarisation of the disputed maritime space.
One of their fellow ASEAN members, Indonesia's Defence Minister, Ryamizard Ryacudu, even went so far as to say that there was no problem. 

Indonesia makes no claim to the island groups claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. 

But it has had its own clash with China over the Natuna Islands at the southern end of the South China Sea.
Ryamizard dismissed any possibility of armed conflict in the region. 

"I talked about factual threats," he said in response to a question on the subject. 

As for conventional war or strategic threat, "I don't see any potential threat. Indonesia sees the most factual threat as terrorism."
And the traditional leading power in the Pacific? 

Speaking at the same conference, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis was blunt on China's recent deployment of cruise missiles to the disputed territories of the South China Sea: "Despite China’s claims to the contrary, the placement of these weapons systems is tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion.”
It seems to have worked. 

It seems that the Philippines and Vietnam have been intimidated into quiescence. 

And while Mattis talked tough and threatened China with unspecified "consequences", the force of his message was soon undercut by his President.
When the hundreds of military chiefs and defence officials who'd heard Mattis' words on the Saturday woke on the Sunday, they saw an overnight tweet from Donald Trump. 

Trump noted Mattis' charge that China had deployed "coercion and intimidation" and he added: "Very surprised that China would be doing this?"
The US has suffered a loss of credibility and, with antics like this, why would anyone take it seriously? 

South East Asia is giving up on America and yielding to China.
More distant great powers have noticed. 

They are worried but none is prepared to stand in China's way. 

China has launched more tonnage of new warships in just the last four years than the entire French navy can boast in totality, according to the International Institute of International Affairs. 

Beijing continues to get its way.

Britain Is Right to Stand Up to China Over Freedom of Navigation

By sailing through the Spratly Islands, the UK is pushing back against China’s attempts to close off these waters – and standing up for freedom of navigation around the whole world.
By Bill Hayton

HMS Sutherland visits Japan in April.

This weekend the British defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, is likely to reveal that two British naval ships have taken part in ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea during the past month. 

This will highlight a significant revival of British interest in Asian security after four years in which no Royal Navy ship visited the Asia-Pacific.
Williamson is expected to tell the international security conference in Singapore known as the ‘Shangri La Dialogue’ that HMS Albion and HMS Sutherland sailed through parts of the South China Sea to which China is attempting to restrict access. 

HMS Albion navigated through the Spratly Islands in early May en route from Brunei to Japan. 

It is not yet clear where HMS Sutherland sailed but it has recently transited from Japan to Singapore through the same region.
Why is the UK taking an interest in the right of ships to sail through distant waters? 

The simple answer is that China is attempting to reverse hundreds of years of international consensus and close off access to the sea for military vessels. 

If this goes unchallenged, the world will be reverting to an era in which navies had to fight their way through blockades and when seaborne trade, the lifeblood of the global economy, was subject to the whims of coastal states. 

By sailing through the Spratly Islands, the UK is pushing back against China’s attempts to close off these waters – and standing up for freedom of navigation around the whole world.
What are the international rules about military ships sailing across seas? 

Put simply: they can sail almost anywhere they like. 

Both the UK and China have signed and ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the document is clear. 

It was entirely legal for naval ships from any country to sail through even the most hotly disputed regions of the South China Sea.
Countries only ‘own’ the sea up to 12 nautical miles from their coast. 

That is one of the rules laid down by UNCLOS. 

But military vessels can still sail through this ‘territorial sea’ – right up to the coast if they choose – provided they do nothing to threaten ‘peace, good order or security’ or jeopardize anyone’s safety. 

Article 24 of UNCLOS clearly states: ‘The coastal State shall not hamper the innocent passage of foreign ships through the territorial sea.’ 

This right applies everywhere, including around rocks and reefs subject to sovereignty disputes.
These rights – and many others – were agreed by almost every country in the world in 1982, after nine years of negotiations. 

The concern of the British government – and others – is that China is trying to undermine an international agreement by unilaterally acting against its provisions. 

Ten years after it agreed to UNCLOS, China approved its 1992 ‘Law on the Territorial Sea’, which directly contradicts it.
The law states that ‘foreign ships for military purposes shall be subject to approval by the Government of the People’s Republic of China for entering the territorial sea of the People's Republic of China’. 

Then, when China ratified UNCLOS four years later, it asserted an opt-out from the ‘innocent passage’ provisions, requiring that a foreign state ‘obtain advance approval from or give prior notification … for the passage of its warships through the territorial sea’.
China’s position here is hypocritical.

It is making demands on other countries that it does not itself respect in other parts of the globe.
In July 2017, three Chinese naval vessels, including a Type-052D guided missile destroyer, sailed through the English Channel. 

The Dover Strait is 18 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, meaning the flotilla had to sail through the territorial waters of either Britain or France. 

The Chinese navy made use of the right of ‘innocent passage’ to make the transit to the Baltic Sea in order to take part in war-fighting exercises with the Russian Navy. 

They sailed right past the UK’s naval bases in Plymouth and Portsmouth and nobody objected. This is what freedom of navigation is all about.
If the UK and France took the same position on the territorial sea that China takes, it could have blocked Chinese navy ships from passing through the English Channel. 

In Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore could use the same argument to block the Strait of Malacca to Chinese vessels. 

Is this the world that China wants to create – where states can unilaterally block waterways? 

The consequences for international peace will be dire.
This is particularly important because some Chinese officials have argued for even more restrictions on where ships can sail. 

For example, the sirector of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, a body jointly run by the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the province of Hainan, has argued in a recent book that China has the ‘historic right’ to control navigation across almost the entirety of the South China Sea. 

This would completely undermine the ‘freedom of the seas’ currently enjoyed by every country.
Some of the media reaction to the news of the Royal Navy’s voyages contained an element of this Chinese attitude – as if the UK was somehow impinging on China’s rights simply by sailing through the South China Sea. 

The South China Sea does not belong to China any more than the English Channel belongs to England. 

Outside the territorial sea it belongs to no one at all.
This is a critical test for what has become known as the rules-based international order. 

Governments are supposed to stick to international agreements, not undermine them. 

By sailing through the South China Sea, wherever international law allows, HMS Albion and HMS Sutherland are showing that the British government supports the rules that have prevented superpower conflict for over 70 years. 

China should come forward and make it clear that it respects them as well.

Chinese Aggressions

UK sends 'strongest of signals' on free navigation in South China Sea
By Nicola Smith, Singapore

Gavin Williamson, UK defence secretary, on board the HMS Sutherland in Singapore

Gavin Williamson, the Defence Secretary, said on Sunday that the UK has deployed three ships to the Asia-Pacific this year to send the “strongest of signals” on the importance of freedom of navigation and to keep up maximum pressure on North Korea.
His comments on board the Royal Navy’s HMS Sutherland docked in Singapore, come a day after General James Mattis, the US Secretary of Defence, accused China of “intimidation and coercion” in the South China Sea and warned there would be “consequences” if it continued.
The surge of British warships, which include the Sutherland - an anti-submarine frigate - the HMS Albion and HMS Argyll, is the first deployment of three vessels to the region in a generation.
Part of their mission is to conduct freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, where Beijing is continuing to alarm the international community with a build up of military fortifications in disputed waters.
“The reason that they are here and the reason that we are visiting is to send the strongest of signals. We believe that countries should play by the rules,” said Mr Williamson.
“This is even more important at a time when storm clouds are gathering and regional fears are rising, when more nations have nuclear and chemical weapons, not to mention the infringement of regional access, freedoms and security.”
But he declined to answer whether British ships would sail within 12 nautical miles of a disputed territory or artificial island built by the Chinese, as US ships have done.
At the end of May China’s military said it had dispatched warships to challenge two US Navy vessels that had passed within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands, an archipelago in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam. 

Gavin Williamson, UK defence secretary, tours the HMS Sutherland in Singapore

China, whose claim to the Paracel Islands is not recognised, argued that passage within 12 nautical miles constitutes a violation of the country’s territory under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea.
Mr Williamson stressed that the UK, France and Australia had also been asserting their rights of passage in the region. 

“We’ve been sending a clear message to all that the freedom of navigation is absolutely critical,” he said.
Since it left UK shores in January, the Sutherland and its 220-strong crew have also engaged in surveillance operations to counter efforts by North Korea to bypass UN sanctions on banned commodities through illicit ship-to-ship transfers.
Mr Williamson said the UK was “very realistic about the challenges” that lay ahead with North Korea, but welcomed the prospect of the upcoming Singapore summit between Donald Trump, the US President and Kim Jong-un.
“The most important thing that we have is the fact that people are talking, people are trying to work to find a solution and the diplomatic lead that has been shown is one that I think we all welcome and we know is the right approach.”

Axis of Evil

U.S. MILITARY PREPARED TO FACE CHINA AND NORTH KOREA AHEAD OF MAJOR ASIA CONFERENCE
BY TOM O'CONNOR

The Pentagon said it was prepared to take on both China and North Korea as Defense Secretary James Mattis headed to Singapore for a major international security conference.
Marine Corps Lieutenant General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., joint staff director at the Defense Department, told reporters Thursday that, although he would not compare the threats posed to the U.S. by China and North Korea, "we are prepared for both." 

The two Asia-Pacific allies have drifted apart in recent years as Pyongyang accelerated its nuclear program, but China remains a staunch opponent of expanding U.S. military activity in the region and especially in the South China Sea.
"We take both threats seriously. Certainly, China has a much larger nuclear capability and you've got to take that into account, China has a much larger economic engine that you have to take into account so the threats are very different," McKenzie told reporters at the Pentagon.
"When you consider North Korea, the first thing you look at is their capricious and unpredictable behavior spanning back several decades," he added.
An H-6H bomber shoots off flares during the Golden Dart-2018 aerial combat competition, April 18, 2018. China recently landed one of its H-6 bomber variants on disputed islands in the South China Sea, prompting the U.S. to disinvite it from a major upcoming naval exercise.

Both countries are likely to be high on the agenda of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual Shangri-La Dialogue, scheduled to begin Friday. 

Among those set to speak at the event are Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Singapore's President Halimah Yacob along with the defense ministers of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, Qatar, the Seychelles, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the U.K, the U.S. and Vietnam.
The nations involved shared U.S. concerns about Chinese activity in the South China Sea, where Washington has accused Beijing of militarizing a set of disputed islands to enforce vast territorial claims. 

Mattis said Tuesday he planned a "steady drumbeat" of freedom of navigation and other naval operations in the contested waters and would "confront what we believe is out of step with international law," according to the Associated Press.
Among other experts and top military officials, Chinese Lieutenant General He Lei, Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhou and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo were also set to make an appearance at the Shangri La Dialogue. 

China has countered U.S. claims by asserting sovereignty over the disputed islands and arguing any military installations there were necessary to maintain self-defense against a much more powerful U.S. military posture.

A map shows construction on the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea as of January 23, 2018.

When asked about the U.S. military's capability to battle China on the South China Sea islands, McKenzie told journalists that "the U.S. military has a lot of experience in the Western Pacific taking down small islands," a reference to Pacific theater against the Japanese Empire during World War II.
The U.S. defeated Japan in 1945 and subsequently occupied the southern half of the Korean Peninsula, the northern half of which was taken by fellow Allied power and future Cold War foe, the Soviet Union. 

The U.S. and the Soviet Union formed opposing satellite states that went to war in the 1950s, creating the current hostility between the U.S. and North Korea, which has since developed nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
North Korea's latest and youngest supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, has offered to denuclearize and meet face-to-face with President Donald Trump in another Singapore summit set for June 12. 

Trump canceled the talks last week after a diplomatic spat between U.S. and North Korean officials, but has suggested they may be back on as top North Korean official Kim Yong Chol met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York.

Chinese Peril

India and Indonesia push back against China with a military alliance

By David Lipson

As China's growing influence dominates headlines, India and Indonesia have joined Australia in pushing back.
The two countries signed an agreement for closer military ties, and while it was not mentioned specifically in the official communique, concerns over China's military expansion in the South China Sea are clearly at the heart of the deal.
Australia has welcomed the agreement, suggesting it will work closely with India and Indonesia to ensure international law is maintained in the region.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Jakarta was a clear display of friendship between the two countries.
That friendship extends beyond trade and tourism, with their military ties elevated to a "comprehensive strategic partnership".
Indonesian President Joko Widodo said the visit was timely in the midst of many uncertainties in the world.
"I hope the partnership will contribute to stability, peace and prosperity," he said.
President Joko Widodo said Narendra Modi's visit was timely in the midst of many uncertainties in the world.

A communique released by India's Government spoke of the importance of a rules-based Indo Pacific region — where international law, freedom of navigation and overflight are respected.
In other words, India and Indonesia are pushing back against China's growing dominance in the region.
Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at ANU, said it was a "very serious development in regional security".
"We're seeing two key middle powers joining forces to offer an alternative to Chinese hegemony, or indeed to an uncertain American leadership," he said.
China has been taking an increasingly assertive role in the South China Sea.
Two weeks ago it landed several H-6K long range bombers on an airstrip in the disputed region — placing all of South-East Asia within range.
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Jakarta was a clear display of friendship between the two countries. 

This year the US pushed back by dispatching warships to conduct freedom of navigation exercises through disputed sea lanes.
And in an indication America plans to continue its pressure, new language has been officially adopted by the US military.
"US Pacific command has this week changed its name, it will be called Indo Pacific command," Professor Medcalf said.
This, he said, reflected the fact that the US remained "strategically engaged with the wider Indo Pacific region".

So where does this leave Australia?
In a statement to the ABC, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said the Government welcomed the India-Indonesia partnership.
"Our three countries share a commitment to a free, open, rules-based, peaceful and prosperous region," she said.
"This includes respect for international law.
"Australia is working closely with India and Indonesia to advance these objectives."
Professor Medcalf said it showed that the idea of the Indo Pacific was "not simply some American plot as some pro-China voices have claimed."
"This development shows that Indonesia and India are beginning creatively to use their geography to position themselves at the core of new regional structures that Australia can link with, that Australia can play into," he said.
"That I think in many ways will moderate and balance Chinese power — this game is far from over."

Sina Delenda Est

US will continue to confront China over disputed islands, Mattis says
By Lukas Mikelionis

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis lands in Kabul on March 13, 2018 on an unannounced trip to Afghanistan. 

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Tuesday that the U.S. will continue to confront China’s increasing militarization of islands in the South China Sea -- despite the U.S. angering Beijing over the weekend by sending two Navy ships to the region.
Mattis rebuked China and said the country hasn’t abided by its promise to stop militarization of the Spratly Islands, a disputed territory whose ownership is contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Mattis said U.S. ships are maintaining a "steady drumbeat" of naval operations and will confront “what we believe is out of step with international law."
“You’ll notice there is only one country that seems to take active steps to rebuff them or state their resentment [to] them, but it’s international waters and a lot of nations want to see freedom of navigation,” Mattis told reporters while enroute to Hawaii.

His comments came after the two U.S. warships sailed close to the Paracel Islands, north of the Spratlys, promoting an angry response from China, which claims to have sent ships and aircraft to counter the U.S. Navy’s presence in the area.
The U.S. operation on Sunday was planned in advance, but similar military exercises have become routine amid China’s increasing militarization of the islands.
Officials at the Pentagon have long criticized China’s actions in the disputed islands, claiming the Chinese government has not been open about its military build-up and has been using the islands to gather intelligence, Reuters reported.

China deployed truck-mounted surface-to-air missiles or anti-ship cruise missiles at Woody Island, according to recent satellite photos. 

Earlier this month, China also landed bombers in the islands.
“When they (Chinese) do things that are opaque to the rest of us, then we cannot cooperate in areas that we would otherwise cooperate in,” Mattis told reporters, adding that American diplomats were working on the issue and heard concerns about Chinese actions not just from the U.S. government but other regional allies as well.
He is expected to raise the issue with Chinese officials during a security forum in Singapore later this week.

Chinese Aggressions

U.S. warships sail near South China Sea islands claimed by Beijing
By Idrees Ali


WASHINGTON -- Two U.S. Navy warships sailed near South China Sea islands claimed by China on Sunday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, in a move that drew condemnation from Beijing as Donald Trump seeks its continued cooperation on North Korea.
The operation was the latest attempt to counter Beijing’s efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the strategic waters.
While this operation had been planned months in advance, and similar operations have become routine, it comes at a particularly sensitive time and just days after the Pentagon uninvited China from a major U.S.-hosted naval drill.
The U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Higgins guided-missile destroyer and the Antietam, a guided-missile cruiser, came within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands, among a string of islets, reefs and shoals over which China has territorial disputes with its neighbors.
The U.S. military vessels carried out maneuvering operations near Tree, Lincoln, Triton and Woody islands in the Paracels, one of the officials said.
Trump’s cancellation of a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has put further strain on U.S.-China ties amid a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.
Critics of the operations, known as a “freedom of navigation,” have said that they have little impact on Chinese behavior and are largely symbolic.
The U.S. military has a long-standing position that its operations are carried out throughout the world, including in areas claimed by allies, and that they are separate from political considerations.
Satellite photographs taken on May 12 showed China appeared to have deployed truck-mounted surface-to-air missiles or anti-ship cruise missiles at Woody Island.
Earlier this month, China’s air force landed bombers on disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea as part of a training exercise in the region, triggering concern from Vietnam and the Philippines.
The U.S. military did not directly comment on Sunday’s operation, but said U.S. forces operate in the region daily.
“We conduct routine and regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), as we have done in the past and will continue to do in the future,” U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement.
China’s Defense Ministry expressed its anger, saying it had sent ships and aircraft to warn the U.S. warships to leave, saying they had entered the country’s territorial waters without permission.
The move “contravened Chinese and relevant international law, seriously infringed upon Chinese sovereignty (and) harmed strategic mutual trust between the two militaries,” it said.
In a separate statement, China’s Foreign Ministry urged the United States to stop such actions.
“China will continue to take all necessary measures to defend the country’s sovereignty and security,” it added, without elaborating.

Triton island

CONTESTED SEA
Pentagon officials have long complained that China has not been candid enough about its rapid military build-up and using South China Sea islands to gather intelligence in the region.

Satellite photo dated March 28, 2018 shows Woody Island. 

In March, a U.S. Navy destroyer carried out a “freedom of navigation” operation close to Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands.
Chinese officials have accused Washington of viewing their country in suspicious, “Cold War” terms.
China’s claims in the South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in shipborne trade passes each year, are contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
The United States has said it would like to see more international participation in freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea.

Chinese Peril

India plans closer Southeast Asia maritime ties to counter China
By Sanjeev Miglani

A cyclist rides past an ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit billboard the side of the road in New Delhi, India, January 23, 2018. 

NEW DELHI -- India is gathering the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Regional Cooperation (ASEAN) for a summit on Thursday to promote maritime security in a region dominated by China, officials and diplomats said.
India has been pursuing an “Act East” policy of developing political and economic ties with Southeast Asia, but its efforts have been tentative and far trail China, whose trade with ASEAN was more than six times India’s in 2016-17 at $470 million.
China has also expanded its presence in South Asia, building ports and power plants in countries around India’s periphery, such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and spurring New Delhi to seek new allies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invited the leaders of all ten ASEAN nations to join him in the Republic Day celebrations on Friday in the biggest ever gathering of foreign leaders at the parade that showcases military might and cultural diversity.
The leaders, who include Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi, Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, will hold talks on maritime cooperation and security, the Indian foreign ministry said in a statement.

Both India and the Southeast Asia nations have stressed the need for freedom of navigation and open seas and India already has strong naval ties with countries such as Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, Preeti Saran, secretary in the Indian foreign ministry, said.
“The ongoing activities of ship visits, of coordinated patrols, of exercises that take place bilaterally, are taking place very well,” Saran said. 

“And every time we have defense to defense talks or navy to navy talks, there is a great deal of satisfaction that has been expressed by the ASEAN member countries.”
But several Southeast Asian countries locked in territorial disputes with China have sought even greater Indian engagement in the region, experts say.
“China’s distinctly hegemonic moves in the last few years in the South China Sea and its growing assertiveness have made ASEAN look towards India as a partner for equilibrium,” said Arvind Gupta, former Indian deputy national security adviser who now heads the influential Vivekananda International Foundation in New Delhi with close ties to the ruling government.
But India, which has been building up its navy, is wary of getting entangled in South China Sea disputes and provoking a backlash from China.
One of the plans the Indian and ASEAN leaders will be discussing at the close-door summit on Thursday will be for their navies to exercise near the Malacca Straits between Malaysia and Singapore, one of the busiest routes for international shipping, a navy official said.

Chinese Peril

U.S. warship sails near islands Beijing claims in South China Sea
By Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON -- A U.S. Navy destroyer sailed near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea on Tuesday, three U.S. officials told Reuters, even as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks Chinese cooperation in dealing with North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

The operation was the latest attempt to counter what Washington sees as Beijing’s efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the strategic waters. 

But it was not as provocative as previous ones carried out since Trump took office in January.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Chafee, a guided-missile destroyer, carried out normal maneuvering operations that challenged “excessive maritime claims” near the Paracel Islands, among a string of islets, reefs and shoals over which China has territorial disputes with its neighbors.
Next month, Trump makes his first visit to Asia as president, including a stop in China, which he has been pressuring to do more to rein in North Korea. 

China is North Korea’s neighbor and biggest trading partner.
Unlike in August, when a U.S. Navy destroyer came within 12 nautical miles of an artificial island built up by China in the South China Sea, officials said the destroyer on Tuesday sailed close to but not within that range of the islands.
Twelve nautical miles mark internationally recognized territorial limits. 

Sailing within that range is meant to show the United States does not recognize territorial claims.
The Pentagon did not comment directly on the operation, but said the United States carried out regular freedom-of-navigation operations and would continue to do so.
In the past, China has objected to such U.S. operations, saying they harmed Chinese sovereignty and security.
China’s claims in the South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in shipborne trade passes each year are contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Experts have criticized former President Barack Obama for potentially reinforcing China’s claims by sticking to innocent passage, in which a warship effectively recognized a territorial sea by crossing it speedily without stopping.
The U.S. military has a long-standing position that its operations are carried out throughout the world, including in areas claimed by allies, and that they are separate from political considerations.
The United States has said it would like to see more international participation in freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea.

Trump’s trip to Asia will likely be dominated by the North Korean nuclear threat. 

He will also visit South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.
In recent weeks, North Korea launched two missiles over Japan and conducted its sixth nuclear test, all in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, and may be fast advancing toward its goal of developing a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.
Trump’s visit to China will reciprocate a trip to the United States made in April by Xi Jinping. 

Trump’s attempts to get Chinese help with North Korea have met with limited success so far, but he has gone out of his way to thank Xi for his efforts.

Holy Alliance

India, Japan Expected to Increase Maritime Activity Aimed at China
By Ralph Jennings
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, right and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wave during the ground breaking ceremony for high speed rail project in Ahmadabad, India, Sept. 14, 2017.

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — India and Japan, anxious to keep Asia’s dominant power Beijing in check, may send patrols into the contested South China Sea or sell arms to rival states following a pair of high-level meetings this month, experts say.
Both Asian countries could sell or donate more weapons to China’s rival maritime claimants, such as Vietnam, so they can build a defense against Beijing.

Japan may also use coast guard or naval ships to patrol the sea to show it’s open despite China’s claim to some 90 percent of it.
India will probably continue joint exploration with Vietnam for oil and gas under the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea, analysts say.
“Delhi and Tokyo have both been stepping up their capacity-building efforts in the region, with Japan focused mainly on providing patrol vessels and training for Southeast Asian states and India selling arms to and training the Vietnamese navy,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Two High-Level Talks in a Week
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met counterpart Narendra Modi in India Sept. 13-14 to discuss “enhancing maritime security cooperation,” according to a foreign ministry statement from Tokyo.
On Monday their foreign ministers met at the United Nations with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to talk about freedom of navigation and respect for international law, the Indian external affairs ministry spokesman said.
Analysts understood both discussions to be aimed at China, including its expansion in the contested sea since 2010.
Neither India nor Japan claims the South China Sea, but the two have warily eyed China’s ascent to being the largest economy and military power in Asia. 

And despite the meeting with Tillerson in New York, the U.S. government is seen as preoccupied by the militarization of North Korea.

Arms for China’s Smaller South China Sea Claimants
Japan as well as India could sell more weapons to the four Southeast Asian states whose coastal waters overlap China’s claim to the sea, analysts say.
Japan indicated in January it would give Vietnam six patrol boats to help with maritime security. Vietnam has clashed three times since the 1970s with Chinese vessels. 

In August last year, Japan began giving the Philippines 10 coast guard boats through a soft loan agreement.
India has talked to Vietnam about supplying it BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, which are co-developed with Russia, among other missiles, leading a state-backed Chinese media outlet earlier this year to accuse India of causing trouble. 

India in September 2016 offered Vietnam a $500 million line of credit to buy defense hardware, including patrol boats.

Sending Patrol Missions into the Disputed Sea
Japan may test China with low-key patrols of the sea, said Le Hong Hiep, research fellow with the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. 

In May it sent an Izumo helicopter-carrying warship into the sea for port visits in Southeast Asia en route to joint exercises with the United States.
“What they have done is they send a ship to Gulf of Aden and on the way back they do kind of patrol in the South China Sea and do port calls to Vietnam, et cetera,” Le said. 

“But they do not intentionally design any kind of (freedom of navigation) program in the South China Sea as it may provoke China.
“But in the future I’m not sure, because Japan obviously has some interest in containing China’s ambitions in the South China Sea as well,” he said.
Patrols would show the sea, also packed with fisheries, is open to other countries despite Beijing’s claim of sovereignty to the waterway off its south coast. 

China has strengthened control and angered rival claimants by using landfill to build artificial islands ready for combat aircraft and radar systems.
Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines claim all or part of the same sea.
India and Japan might patrol the sea together with coast guard ships, said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taiwan. 

They would occasionally send naval vessels, he added.
“Maybe they will increase the momentum of their joint activities in order to demonstrate that Japan and India are closely cooperating in terms of regulating the so-called rule-based behavior in the South China Sea and the region,” Yang said.

India’s Overtures in Southeast Asia
India, as part of a fast-growing trade and investment relationship with Vietnam, can further assert itself in the South China Sea by working with Vietnamese firms on exploration for oil and gas, Le said.
For the past three years, the overseas subsidiary of India’s government-run ONGC has worked with PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corporation to search for oil and gas in the South China Sea. That cooperation helps Vietnam improve its "bargaining power" with China, Le said.
Since losing a world arbitration court verdict over its claim to the South China Sea last year, China has sought favor with Southeast Asian countries through economic aid and investment. 

Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines are accepting China’s overtures -- along with the same from other major nations.
The Philippines, for example, welcomes Japanese aid because the public and the China-friendly government have long trusted Tokyo, said Maria Ela Atienza, political science professor at University of the Philippines Diliman. 

Filipinos know less about India, she said, but Japan could bridge the gap.
“At least people are not so aware of possible positive relations with India,” Atienza said. 

“But if it’s an alliance, maybe if Japan can vouch for India, perhaps that can build confidence in terms of the partnership.”

Chinese Aggressions

US sets schedule for patrols in South China Sea for the first time, plans to increase operations

By Nirmal Ghosh

Construction is shown on Mischief Reef, in the Spratly Islands, the disputed South China Sea in this March 11, 2017, satellite image released by CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Inititative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Construction is shown on Fiery Cross Reef, in the Spratly Islands, the disputed South China Sea in this June 16, 2017 satellite image released by CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

WASHINGTON -- The US Pacific Command has for the first time developed a schedule for naval patrols in the South China Sea, with freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) two or three times over the next few months, a report said on Friday (Sept 1), quoting unnamed US officials.
This would mark a considered approach to FONOPS in the disputed South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

China claims the maritime zone virtually in its entirety, but Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines also have claims there.
China has called previous FONOPS by the US provocative. 

There have been three so far under President Donald Trump, and four under the previous Barack Obama administration.
China reacted sharply to a US patrol on July 2, when the American destroyer USS Stethem passed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels chain. 

The destroyer had “trespassed” China’s territorial waters, China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. 

But Admiral Harry Harris, chief of the US Pacific Command, has publicly favoured more FONOPS.
The last such operation was conducted on Aug 10 near Mischief Reef, one of several features in the Spratlys chain that had been fortified by China. 

In that operation, the destroyer USS John McCain was accompanied by two P-8 Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft, officials told the Wall Street Journal, adding that air support may be a regular feature of future FONOPS.
Notwithstanding an apparently warm start to the personal relationship between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China and the US are still feeling their way in a relationship which under Mr Trump, has become prickly over the issue of trade and North Korea.
The US wants to cut its trade deficit with China, and also wants Beijing to lean on North Korea to pressure the Pyongyang regime to curb its nuclear and missile programmes – and Mr Trump has linked the two issues.
Meanwhile on Thursday, Vietnam objected to Chinese drills in the Gulf of Tonkin, just north of the South China Sea. 

In a statement, Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Thi Thu Hang said “Vietnam proposes China to cease and refrain from repeating acts that complicate the situation in the East Sea (South China Sea).”

In July, China had pressured Hanoi to suspend oil drilling in waters also claimed by China.

China set for easy ride from ASEAN on disputed South China Sea

By Manuel Mogato

MANILA -- Southeast Asian ministers meeting this week are set to avoid tackling the subject of Beijing's arming and building of manmade South China Sea islands, preparing to endorse a framework for a code of conduct that is neither binding nor enforceable.
The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has omitted references to China's most controversial activities in its joint communique, a draft reviewed by Reuters shows.
In addition, a leaked blueprint for establishing an ASEAN-China code of maritime conduct does not call for it to be legally binding, or seek adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The two drafts highlight China's growing regional clout at a time of uncertainty whether the new U.S. administration will try to check Beijing's assertiveness in the disputed waters.
The South China Sea chapter in the latest draft communique, a negotiated text subject to changes, is a watered-down version of one issued in Laos last year.
ASEAN expressed "serious concern" in that text, and "emphasised the importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint in all activities, including land reclamation."
But the latest text calls for avoidance of "unilateral actions in disputed features" instead.
The role of the Philippines as 2017 chair of ASEAN has helped China keep a lid on discord.
Once ASEAN's most vocal critic of China's conduct, the Philippines, under Rodrigo Duterte, has put aside disputes in exchange for Chinese funding pledges of $24 billion.
ASEAN ties with the United States, under Donald Trump, have been in flux, as questions linger over Washington's commitment to maritime security and trade in Asia, diminishing the grouping's bargaining power with Beijing.
A legally binding and enforceable code of conduct has been a goal for ASEAN's claimant members -- Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam -- since a 2002 pact to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight and leave rocks and reefs uninhabited.
That pact, the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) of Parties in the South China Sea, has been largely ignored, particularly by China, which reclaimed seven reefs and can now deploy combat planes on three, besides defence systems already in place.
China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that China was willing to work with ASEAN to maintain the "hard won" stability in the South China Sea and steadily push forward with talks on the code of conduct.
Analysts and ASEAN diplomats worry that China's sudden support for negotiating a code of conduct is a ploy to buy time to further boost its military capability.

A horse cart driver waits for tourists near the ASEAN logo ahead of the 50th ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting and in Manila, Philippines August 2, 2017.
"We could have done more to push China to agree to a much stronger document, holding claimant states more accountable," said one ASEAN diplomat.
The agreed two-page framework is broad and leaves wide scope for disagreement, urging a commitment to the "purposes and principles" of UNCLOS, for example, rather than adherence.
The framework papers over the big differences between ASEAN nations and China, said Patrick Cronin of the Center for a New American Security.
"Optimists will see this non-binding agreement as a small step forward, allowing habits of cooperation to develop, despite differences," he said.
"Pessimists will see this as a gambit favourable to a China determined to make the majority of the South China Sea its domestic lake."

Consensus Constraints
Diplomats say ASEAN's requirement of consensus in decision-making allows China to pressure some members to disagree with proposals it dislikes. 

China has long denied interfering.
A separate ASEAN document, dated May and seen by Reuters, shows that Vietnam pushed for stronger, more specific text.
Vietnam sought mention of respect for "sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction" not only in accordance with international law, but more specifically, UNCLOS.
Sovereign rights cover entitlements to fish and extract natural resources.
Experts say the uncertain future U.S. commitment to Asia leaves Vietnam in the most exposed position, as it has competing claims with China and relies on imports from its neighbour.
Opposition by China has repeatedly disrupted Vietnam's efforts to exploit offshore energy reserves, most recently in an area overlapping what Beijing considers its oil concessions.
The code of conduct framework was useful to build confidence, said Philippine security expert Rommel Banlaoi, but was not enough to manage and prevent conflict in the South China Sea.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in goods pass every year. 

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam also have claims.

South China Sea: Modi, Not Duterte, Is China's Problem

By Panos Mourdoukoutas

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s foreign policy flip-flops aren’t a big threat to China’s ambitions to write the navigation rules for the South China Sea. 

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high profile diplomacy is, something investors should keep a close eye on, as it complicates the geopolitical risks in the region.
India doesn't border the South China Sea. 

But it has very much been involved in the ongoing disputes between China on the one side, and the US and its allies. 

“We are already working together to address the existing and emerging strategic and security challenges that affect both our nations—in Afghanistan, West Asia, the large maritime space of the Indo-Pacific, the new and unanticipated threats in cyberspace,” stated Modi in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published on the day he made his official visit in the White House.
“We also share an interest in ensuring that sea lanes—critical lifelines of trade and energy—remain secure and open to all.”
Apparently, India is siding openly with Washington on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, something China is disputing. 

Beijing considers that body of water its own sea.
This isn’t the first time Modi meddles with South China Sea disputes. 

Last October he didn’t miss the chance to bring up an international arbitration ruling, which found that China has no historic title over the waters.
That was during his visits to Singapore and Vietnam, trying to revive an allied front against China’s ambitions, according to a China Topix report.
India’s high diplomacy on South China Sea disputes has very little to do with the dispute per se and plenty to do with China’s unofficial agenda to encircle India through Pakistan and Sri Lanka, by pursuing massive infrastructure projects – like The China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) in Pakistan, and the building and modernizing of ports in both Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Then there are a couple of Chinese foreign policies that have irritated India. 

Like Beijing’s open support for Pakistan in the India-Pakistan Kashmir standoff, as evidenced by statements by China’s senior officials last year.
"We support Pakistan, and we will speak for Pakistan in every forum. We attach great importance to Pakistan's position on Kashmir," Li Keqiang told his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the ongoing 71st session of United Nations General Assembly in New York, as quoted in Pakistan Today.
Then there’s China’s refusal to support India’s bid to join the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). Officially, Beijing claims that India doesn’t satisfy the conditions for joining the elite group. 

But the real reason is to be found elsewhere. 

China wants to punish New Delhi for growing closer to US in recent years, serving Washington’s policy to contain China. 

“US backing adds the biggest impetus to India’s ambition,” stated a Global Times editorial, back in June. 

“By cozying up to India, Washington’s India policy actually serves the purpose of containing China.
The US is not the whole world. Its endorsement does not mean India has won the backing of the world. This basic fact, however, has been ignored by India.”
So, India must pay a price for ignoring China. 

But China cannot ignore India either, as it can amass enough support to spoil Beijing’s’ South China Sea and Indian Ocean ambitions.
That’s why China should keep a close eye on Modi rather than Duterte.

Chinese Peril

Japan's growing concern over China's naval might
By Alexander Neill

The pride of Japan's naval defence, the JS Izumo, is making an unprecedented journey through Asian waters over the next three months.
The Izumo is the largest vessel built by Japan since the end of World War Two -- and she looks very much like an aircraft carrier.
She has already participated in Singapore's first ever fleet review, an international naval gathering with fleets from Asia and beyond to demonstrate their power.
There is growing support in Japan for a more strident response to Chinese military assertiveness around Japanese waters and Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force has been increasingly active in the region.
It is all part of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's determination to loosen constitutional strictures over the role of Japan's self-defence forces.
The sea is where this is playing out right now.
Japanese navy officials are careful to describe the ship as a "helicopter destroyer" capable of carrying more than 20 helicopters from its expansive flight deck, and thus playing down any offensive capabilities forbidden under Japan's constitution.
Against the backdrop of China's narrative of humiliation at the hands of Japanese imperial forces during World War Two, the transit of the Izumo through the South China Sea is particularly sensitive for China, since Japan has been very vocal in its support of a ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration overwhelmingly against China's claims to a large expanse of the South China Sea and its features.

Japan's new military role
The widening of Japanese naval operations in the South China Sea and beyond is also a response to a more pressing concern for Japan: China's own relentless drive to dominate the waters around Japan.
Chinese critics of Japan's naval modernisation will point out that with a few minor adjustments, this ship could carry vertical take-off and landing fighter jets, including the F-35 stealth fighter.
For China, therefore, the Izumo and the latest additions to the JMSDF fleet are both a symbol of a new era of military expansionism under Prime Minister Abe's administration and a painful reminder of China's wartime humiliation.
The Izumo is a helicopter carrier and the largest vessel built by Japan since the end of WW2

For Japan's navy, however, impressive vessels such as the Izumo serve a dual purpose.
They are both a symbol of the JMOD's desire to make a greater contribution to regional and international security and an example of Japan's contribution to its alliance with the United States.
This was shown recently when the Izumo escorted a US navy supply vessel in a joint manoeuvre not designated as a military exercise, under the auspices of a revised Article 9 of Japan's constitution, which outlaws war as a way to settle disputes.
Japan's defence industries, long fettered by Japan's pacifist constitution now feel emboldened to compete for defence contracts far from home.
Japan's new Kawasaki P-1 Maritime Patrol aircraft flew all the way to the Farnborough air show two years ago for a demonstration to the British MoD and last year, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries campaigned to supply a new generation of submarines for the Australian navy.

Territorial disputes over Senkaku
Japan's navy and coast guard in recent years have also been under increasing pressure to respond to China's campaign of incursions into Japan's territorial waters and frequent transits of vessels and aircraft through the numerous straits of the Japanese archipelago.
A focal point for such rivalry are the Senkaku islands.
Until 2012 when the Japanese government purchased the islands from their private owners, Chinese maritime law enforcement vessels seldom intruded into Japanese territorial waters.
Chinese outrage at the purchase triggered sustained incursions into Japanese waters at up to three incursions per month.
Two years later the Japanese maritime agencies were alarmed to detect armaments on Chinese coast guard vessels and that Chinese navy frigates and destroyers were being transformed into white-hulled law enforcement vessels.
Recently such vessels have been increasing in size from 3 or 4,000 tonne to 10,000-tonne vessels.
While in 2012, Japanese and Chinese coast guard vessel numbers were roughly similar at 51 and 40 respectively, the Japanese government estimates that by 2019, the numbers will have swung hugely in favour of China at 135 vessels versus Japan's 65.
And there have been an increasing number of other concerning incidents for Japan in recent years.

Rising tensions
In June 2016 the Japanese destroyer Setogiri spotted a PLA Navy Jiangkai class frigate entering the contiguous zone around the Senkakus at the same time as a group of Russian navy vessels transited the same waters.
That same month, Chinese naval intelligence-gathering ships entered Japan's territorial sea near Kuchinerabujima and Yakushima islands for the first time and in the southern waters of the Senkaku islands.
One particularly unnerving episode for Japan began in early August 2016 when a China coast guard vessel escorted 300 Chinese fishing vessels into waters around the Senkakus, and over four days a total of 15 coast guard ships repeatedly intruded into the waters, half of them armed.
The Japanese defence ministry suspects that many of the Chinese fishing vessels belonged to the maritime militia.
Meanwhile, the number of Japanese scrambles against Chinese aircraft around the East China Sea and towards the Senkakus has jumped dramatically, surpassing even the annual peak number of 994 during the Cold War.
Japan's Senkaku islands lie near potential oil and gas reserves

Japanese fighter patrols have also encountered challenging behaviour by Chinese PLA Air Force pilots in a similar vein to the increasing number of dangerous encounters between US and Chinese aircraft over the East and South China Seas.
The final element to China's saturation of the East China Sea is its unilateral construction of 12 new gas platforms adjacent to the Japan-China geographical equidistance line in an area agreed as a joint development zone between the countries.
It is concerned that radars deployed by China on some of the platforms could be used in support of military operations.

China's strategic vision
For Mr Abe, the Izumo is a military instrument which could be deployed under his recent proposal to change Japan's constitution to allow a more assertive Japanese defence posture.
The deployment of Japan's naval assets further afield and more diversely alongside those of the US also helps to answer Donald Trump's calls for more burden-sharing within the alliance.
But most importantly, the Japanese government sees a direct link between China's behaviour in the South and East China Seas.
China recently launched its own first domestically-built aircraft carrier

The wider deployment and sustained presence of Japanese vessels throughout the region therefore underpins Shinzo Abe's consistent demands for China to abide by a "rules-based international order", which includes freedom of navigation through international waters.
However for China, the clamour for a rules-based order is simply camouflage for the perpetuation of a US regional hegemony and what the Chinese leadership describe as "outmoded Cold War thinking".
China has its own vision for regional security and a new geo-strategic plan accompanying it in the form of the the 'Belt and Road initiative', providing an alternative to US dominance in the region.
For China's new maritime Silk Road to succeed, it needs to secure its seas on its own terms but that means the potential for an unmanaged escalation between Japan and China increases substantially.