jeudi 25 octobre 2018

The Necessary War

Retired US general says war with China very likely in 15 years
By VANESSA GERA

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges speaks to reporters on the sideline of the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland, Wednesday Oct. 24, 2018. Mr. Hodges, who was U.S. Army commander in Europe from 2014-17, told the forum that it's very likely that the United States will be at war with China in 15-years. 

WARSAW, Poland — The former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe warned Wednesday that it’s very likely the United States will be at war with China in 15 years.
Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said that European allies will have to do more to ensure their own defenses in face of a resurgent Russia because American will need to focus more attention on defending its interests in the Pacific.
“The United States needs a very strong European pillar. I think in 15 years, but it is a very strong likelihood, that we will be at war with China,” Hodges told a packed room at the Warsaw Security Forum, a two-day gathering of leaders and military and political experts from central Europe.
“The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat,” Hodges said.
Hodges was U.S. Army commander in Europe from 2014 until last year. 
He now is a strategic expert with the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington-based research institute.
Despite shifting geopolitical priorities, Hodges said the U.S. commitment to NATO remains “unshakable.” 
He said he is certain the Trump administration views Europe’s security as a key U.S. interest even though President Donald Trump has sometimes questioned the Western military alliance’s usefulness.
“So you’re going to see us continue to invest here in Europe, continue to train, to practice rotational forces, as well as permanently assign forces for the eventuality that in 10 or 15 years we’re going to be having to fight in the Pacific,” Hodges said.
Hodges told The Associated Press that a recent near-miss between a U.S. Navy destroyer and a Chinese warship in the disputed South China Sea was only one of the signs pointing to an “an increasingly tense relationship and increasing competition in all the different domains.”
Others, he said, are China’s “constant stealing of technology” and how China is gaining control of infrastructure by funding projects in Africa and Europe. 
He said that in Europe, China owns more than 10 percent of the ports.
War With China
2016 PopulationKilledSurvivors
CHINA1 373 541 2781 057 119 68977%316 421 589
UNITED STATES323 995 52819 089 7836%304 905 745
EUROPEAN UNION513 949 445371 356 95872%142 592 487
RUSSIA142 355 41530 924 81622%111 430 599
INDIA1 266 883 5981 158 499 17491%108 384 424
PAKISTAN201 995 540175 747 47387%26 248 067
JAPAN126 702 133114 241 88990%12 460 244
VIETNAM95 261 02184 340 68889%10 920 333
PHILIPPINES102 624 20992 732 90290%9 891 307
KOREA, NORTH25 115 31121 141 05084%3 974 261
KOREA, SOUTH50 924 17247 636 30294%3 287 870
TAIWAN23 464 78722 278 49095%1 186 297
4 246 812 4373 195 109 21475%1 051 703 223

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