mardi 2 mai 2017

Imperial Dream

South China Sea Isn't China's Own Sea
By Panos Mourdoukoutas
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The South China Sea isn't China's own sea. 
It's an international sea open to all commercial and military vessels.
That's the message America and its naval allies, France, Japan, and Britain are prepared to send to Beijing, according to a recent Chinatopix.com report. 
"Japan and the United States are worried by China's efforts to exercise unilateral control over the South China Sea, a concern shared by France, which controls several Pacific islands, including New Caledonia and French Polynesia."
Financial markets in the region do not seem that concerned, at least for now, focusing on the economic fundamentals rather than the geopolitics of the region.
China considers the waterway its own sea, and is building artificial islands, defying international tribunal rulings, though Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte isn't prepared to stop Beijing --Philippines is the country that won an international tribunal ruling against China.
Meanwhile four mighty allied navies are planning a joint exercise as a "show of force" against China's ambitions in South China Sea and beyond.
The exercise comes a few months after an intense exchange of blunt messages between China on the one side and Taiwan and Japan on the other.
Last December, Taiwan’s defense minister Feng Shih-kuan told Taiwan Central News Agency that the island’s forces are ready do fend off any military challenge by Mainland China. 
 "The enemy's threats are increasingly expanding," said Shih-kuan as he issued out orders for the military to step up training exercises. 
"We must always maintain combat preparedness."
Meanwhile, Japan sent its own blunt diplomatic message to Beijing by changing the name of its Taiwanese representative office from 'The Interchange Association' to 'Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association'. 
That means Tokyo comes a step closer of recognizing Taiwan as a separate nation, drawing an angry response from Beijing.
A month earlier, China told Japan’s close ally, America, to stay away from its “own” South China Sea, as three China Coast Guard vessels entered Japanese waters around the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, according to the Japan Coast Guard.
About the same time, China sent a separate message to Washington, in the form of a naval force demonstration, which had another recipient, too – Taiwan -- as group of Chinese warships that included the country’s only aircraft carrier made their way to the South China Sea after passing south of Taiwan in a “routine” exercise.
And there’s China’s warning to Japan last June, when Beijing told Japan “not to send Self-Defense Forces to join U.S. operations that test the freedom of navigation in the disputed South China Sea,” according to a Japan Times editorial.
While it is almost certain that the show of military power by the allied naval forces will draw angry protests from China, it may tame Beijing’s ambitions to control the South China Sea, and give peace another chance.
Investors should keep a close eye on the ongoing disputes in the region, as accidents can and do happen, taking financial markets for a wild ride.

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